The Cherry Pickers

We are stock pickers, long investors, outperformers. Former ibankers and fund managers. Caltech/Yale/Stanford. MBA. Not Financial Advice.

[The Cherry Pickers @cherrypickers]

Our investment philosophy: pick the best performing stocks in the best performing sectors. Big names that we can take big positions on (and make big money).

Simple.

Our goal: provide our thoughts on the day's best action. Buy. Sell. Do nothing. And some commentary. And some vintage jokes.

Disclaimer: we don't catch falling knives, fight the trends, dig deep contrarian holes, chase microcap garbage, leave good money for dead, use options or leverage. Not financial advice.

[The Cherry Pickers @cherrypickers]

@SemiAnalysis_ where do u see prices going up? Spot prices look they are falling

[The Cherry Pickers @cherrypickers]

If spec like $TSLA and $IWM are hitting all time highs while FCF monsters $NVDA, $AMZN, $MSFT, $NFLX are not, the cycle is not over...

[The Cherry Pickers @cherrypickers]

$VRT Hold the line... Love isn't always on time....

Holding prior ATH and inverse head and shoulders breakout, bull flag formation.

https://t.co/WXQ7dic7l3

[The Cherry Pickers @cherrypickers]

$QQQ, $SMH, $NVDA, $AVGO

Just in case you are confused...

There is no safe haven in stock and crypto if tech and semis crash...

[The Cherry Pickers @cherrypickers]

$IWM, $DJI, $SMH, $QQQ

I'm looking to rotate my money into companies that aren't growing very fast, have legacy business models and costs, and don't have narrative of how they will grow in the future...

Wait, change of plans. Actually... I think I'll stick with the fastest growing companies in the dominant narrative.

[The Cherry Pickers @cherrypickers]

$CLS, $MU, $TSM, $VRT

Bull flags galore on some of the strongest names in AI build out.

Added more -- I'm running with the bulls today!

https://t.co/akGYj6GGSY

[The Cherry Pickers @cherrypickers]

$AVGO

Oh No!!! Time to panic. $AVGO is at its 2 year trend baseline!!!

Custom ASIC is becoming more and more important, ask Gemini 3 (it will tell you).

Investing is about rates of change -- it's calculus not algebra.

Time to buy?

[The Cherry Pickers @cherrypickers]

$SMH, $IWM.

$SMH. Even though risk is on, there can only be one Ra.

https://t.co/pTXY99Pw0u

[The Cherry Pickers @cherrypickers]

$IWM, $CRDO, $BE, $FN, $IONQ

Risk on! What does $IWM breakout out to ATH, the fed cutting, fed balance sheet expansion mean to you? $IWM contains notable bubble boys $BE, $IONQ, and others as LARGEST HOLDINGS.

(Hint: it doesn't mean the bubble has popped).

https://t.co/vLi9gn3Dc2

[The Cherry Pickers @cherrypickers]

$AMD

Everybody loves $AMD.

Apart from the everybody hates $AMD moment of 24-25, the $AMD/ $SMH zone we are in has been the reliable buy signal over the past 6 years.

Remember Everybody Loves Raymond? Everybody Loves $AMD. https://t.co/DlLzG1sygK

[The Cherry Pickers @cherrypickers]

$SMH, $QQQ, $NVDA, $MU, $AMD, $CLS

Who doesn't like buying highs? Signs of strength, both absolute and relative. $SMH hitting a new high vs $QQQ signaling semis will continue to outperform.

$SMH -- Just like #StylesP -- I get high. https://t.co/GW9Oa8ON82

[The Cherry Pickers @cherrypickers]

$AMKR -- "Thar she blows"

I know, it's a little ridiculous to claim a 25 year chart pattern, but we have a breakout and we're finally going to challenge dot-com era highs... This time with 3X the revenue and 2X the EBITDA. And the fun hasn't even begun.

[The Cherry Pickers @cherrypickers]

$SMH $SOXX $GOOGL $NVDA $AMD $TSM $AVGO $VRT $BABA $LITE $AMKR $TER $CLS $MU
"28-3, 28-34"
Fund performance update is presented below (full year, November and monthly). November turned out to be a decent month albeit with a volatile start. Michael Burry was short tech all year...LMFAO. 2025 over-all has also been OK despite a pretty rocky start (Jan to Apr). We still have one more month to go, knock on wood. Tariffs, China chip bans, inflation, rate cut/no cut, government shutdown, AI bubble fears. Did I miss anything? Invest in high conviction ideas and play to the final whistle. Unless you're vomiting, bleeding or passing out, don't quit. Good luck to all the players, especially me. #SuperBowl51

[The Cherry Pickers @cherrypickers]

$SMH, $SPX, $QQQ, $NVDA
Breakout, back test, held with 2 days to go...
Relative performance of semis vs broad market intact...

[The Cherry Pickers @cherrypickers]

$SMH $SOXX $GOOGL $NVDA $AMD $TSM $AVGO $VRT $BABA $LITE $AMKR
"Hey $GOOGL, are more TPU's a good thing for $LITE, $AMKR, $AVGO, $CLS, $TSM?
"Yes."

[The Cherry Pickers @cherrypickers]

$VIX $SPY $QQQ $SMH $SOXX $NVDA $AMD $TSM $AVGO $VRT $BABA $LITE $AMKR
"Rates, rates and rates"
The story today is not ADP job losses...well, I guess it kind of is. Rares across the curve are BREAKING DOWN. As I have been saying in previous posts, tields are are going to crack significantly lower. The 2yr yield is picture perfect, massive multi-year rolling top which suggests we get a 2 handle. The 10yr looks like it wants to break down from a coiling wedge. Lower yields=high stocks...eventually.