It appears #iran will have a strategic bitcoin reserve before the USA.
They don’t do Bills, they create an insurance product and $10 billion ARR.
Clarity enough for everyone?
Most people think money is “real” like gravity or oxygen.
It isn’t.
Without humans, gold is just metal.
Bitcoin is dormant code.
Dollars are worthless paper.
Money only exists because humans collectively agree something can store value and coordinate trade.
That’s it.
That’s the entire game.
Gold won for centuries because it had the best monetary properties.
Bitcoin improves on those properties for a digital civilization.
The history of money is the history of humans upgrading coordination technology.
And Bitcoin may be the biggest upgrade yet.
Physical dollars, or cash, are printed by the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, a division of the Treasury, but they’re actually “Federal Reserve Notes” issued by the Federal Reserve.
When the Fed purchases bonds issued by the US government, they are literally initiating the process of printing money. The Treasury transmits the bonds to the Federal Reserve's account, the Federal Reserve gives them "Federal Reserve Notes" in exchange. This is cash (fiat) money. And the government spends it like a drunken sailor.
Big Print Update
In written answers to the Senate Warsh re-emphasized that he does not think inflation statistics are accurate and in his testimony he suggested using the "trimmed mean" which throws out outlier prices and is currently printing much lower than headline numbers. Wake up folks. Bessent is calling the shots and Warsh is going to cut short rates. They have to to reduce government interest expenses. Given that this administration doesn't move slowly, I could see an unscheduled Fed meeting right after May 15 and a 100 bps rate cut. Last chance to get on the sound money train at relatively attractive prices: gold, silver, bitcoin.
Is this the Big Print? Yes and no. M2 the monetary base grows when the banks make loans and print money into existence. The Fed creates money out of thin air in the form of reserves which it gives to the banks in exchange for Treasury Bonds. Literally with a mouse click. The bank reserves do not hit M2 but they allow the banks to increase their lending which does hit M2. It generally does this in a crisis (2008, COVID). Warsh has said that (absent a market disruption) he wants to shrink the balance sheet (i don't believe he can) but that lower interest rates fuel growth. He believes in AI productivity gains he and Bessent emphasize growth. Therefore, he will cut. Another credit/inflation cycle will begin. All other things being equal: inflationary. The big unknown? The Bond Market. If the bond market realizes that real yields are hugely negative it will sell off hard and drive the Fed into crisis mode and YCC. Given that the middle east problem appears to be dragging on my operating assumption is lower rates, credit growth, more inflation, stock and bond trouble and then the CRISIS which creates the Big Print on the Fed's balance sheet. If they were to lock long bonds at 2.5% which they did to finance WWII the bond market will look at the Fed and say "sold to you". The Fed Balance sheet is ~$6.6T. US Federal debt is $39T. So, Big Print 1: GFC $3.6T, Big Print 2: COVID $5.0T. Big Print 3: ???
None of us own enough sound money assets.