Barbarians at the Gate.
In which every Zimbabwean must support the Governor of RBZ. At least in this particular round.
The Facts.
As of March 2023, Zimbabwe Nostro TOTAL DEPOSITS were US$2bn of which it was supported by US$1bn in actual physical cash and cash held in foreign banks offshore. The difference between Total deposits and cash is CREDIT DEPOSITS of US$1bn. That is money created by the banks. At 50% ratio this is a VERY HEALTHY position. At least as of end March 2023.
What was notable over the year of March 2022 to March 2023 is that actual physical USD cash has gone down from US$539m in March 2022 to US$457m in March 2023. The decline in the cash of US$82m was replaced by an increase in cash held offshore of approx US$80m.
The Nostro balances in the overall banking system are safe. But the overall may not be true for individual banks. As an analyst I will not speak to individual banks positions.
But, there is a real threat to the NOSTRO system from two principle sources.
I will assume banks donāt go on their own frolic in announcing new measures without the knowledge of their regulator. Banks are trying to protect the system so that it actually works. However the threat to the system is from two particular fronts;
(a) Civil servants salaries &
(b) BARBARIANS AT THE GATE
Civil servants USD salary transfers from Treasury IF NOT backed by real USD are a problem. The salary payments range from US$100m to $150m monthly. Civil servants with a high marginal propensity to consume would quickly withdraw USD cash. Meaning they are replacing real USD with credit or local nostro that canāt buy beyond our borders.
Yet itās safe to assume that ZIMRA does have real USD from exporter taxes at least significant enough to back the civil servants salaries.
The big worry is the Barbarians at the Gate.
Whenever the official exchange rate moves the way it has done, the threat of shenanigans rises. Remember I spoke of GOZ supplier ācredit balancesā that works in the same way as bank credit.
The GOZ contractors owed by GOZ in ZWL will claim that they supplied goods to GOZ six months ago when the rate was 684. They would want their balances to be converted into USD at the six months ago rate of 684 when goods were supplied. Turning their ZWL to USD.
I am not in anyway saying this is happening but this is a real threat to Nostro. Turning ZWL balances to USD. In the past the SaKunda TBās allegedly had this impact into the system. IMF widely reported to have warned GOZ and RBZ that this is what crashed the monetary system back in 2019. After the official rate had been devalued.
Sound familiar?
Itās within good reason for RBZ and The banking sector to protect their unsuspecting clients from nostro credit balances not backed by USD. There are many NGOās , Exporters and Companies that cannot keep their USD under the mattress but in the banking system.
The barbarians are at the gate.
Itās unfortunate the governor feels the need to backtrack. He must be supported fully in protecting Nostro balances sanctity.
Don't regret the love you've shown others. There is nothing wrong with being kind & making others feel seen, heard, & understood.They can only meet you as deeply as they've met themselves. Never wish them pain.If they caused you pain, they must have pain inside.Wish them healing
Update on 17 yr old
Her baby pooped while in her belly. Nurse had to act fast and get baby out, hence the episiotomy. (Best Nurse ever!)
I got the call for the suture thread and meds.
I was listed as her in case of emergency. She lives alone!
WE ARE OUT OF BIRTHKITS
Plug in
Zimbabwean men, uhmm! @globaldnazim itās time to rethink this small house culture! We have created a predatory culture amongst our women, economics is now the driving force with men non the wiser! This arrangement benefits only the men with everyone else being collateral damage! @tinashednaman
South Africa šæš¦ has started constructing the Vaal River City Interchange in Vereeniging
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