blue

Never stop learning. #bitcoin

[James Lavish @jameslavish]

Good morning.

In the month of August, the US government took in $307 billion in taxes and fees and spent $687 billion, for a deficit of $380 billion. This works out to be an annualized deficit of $4.56 trillion.

Have a great weekend.

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

History Shows Bitcoin's Volatility Is Net Positive

Bitcoin briefly broke the previous all-time high of $69,000 yesterday. The digital currency then proceeded to drop more than 10% shortly after. This type of volatility is unheard of in traditional financial markets, but it is just a normal day in the world of cryptocurrencies.

Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins), the Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, correctly pointed out it is important to “remember that in December 2020, BTC touched its prior all-time high of ~$20k twice, then ranged and traded -11.3% lower over 15 days before definitively breaking ATH.

It is likely to look similar here, and some consolidation would be healthy after +62% YTD / +77% from YTD low (jan 23).”

Thorn went on to present an analysis of the volatility in the last two bull markets. First, he showed “bitcoin had 13 corrections of 10% or more between the March 12, 2020 covid-low ($3858) and the April 14, 2021 ATH ($64,899).”

If we go back to the 2017 bull market, “from January 1, 2017 to December 17, 2017 bitcoin ATH ($19,891) there were thirteen 12%+ drawdowns (of those, 12 were 15%+, and 8 were 25%+).”

Bitcoin is volatile. You need the volatility to get the upwards movement in price, so most holders view the thrashing of price to be a net positive over the long run. Now that bitcoin is larger than the entire US high-yield bond market, or larger than the entire silver market, some believed the volatility would subside.

Personally, I have even talked about volatility dampening over the long-run.

But bitcoin has not paid attention to those opinions in the short-term. The asset continues to oscillate in ranges of thousands of dollars per day. This is important to understand if you are buying bitcoin for the first time or if you have a weak stomach for volatility.

The good news is that “Bitcoin is not only the best performing asset class of 2024, up 62% YTD, it also has the highest Sharpe ratio at 2.1,” according to @zerohedge. This continues to reinforce the point that bitcoin is one of the best, if not the best, risk-return assets available in the market.

I write this to all of you because the market continues to be a little crazy. At the exact moment that the euphoria hits from breaking the all-time high, holders are immediately met with a 10% drawdown. It is easy for outsiders to say bitcoin holders “got lucky,” but the truth is that very few people in the world can hold an asset through this type of volatility.

I hope this helps as we go through the next few weeks.

[Anil Patel @anilpatel]

This thread represents 5,000+ hrs of research, curation, and synthesis to help you make sense of #Bitcoin and adjacent topics.

They're educational resources I wished existed when I began my own journey. Happy reading.
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[Joe Bryant @Football_Guys]

3 more days. Can. Not. Wait.

[blue @chief_tactical]

@Jeff_Mans To encourages not tanking for #1 pick/selection : Draft selection position is determined by record whereby the best team to not make playoffs get #1 choice and so on down the line.

[blue @chief_tactical]

@sglaze1 @Jeff_Mans @Jardle65 There is no loss of entry fees thankfully. Also, it's a 20 year league, with an approx 1100$ entry, fixed amt + based on prior year tx fees. Also people have threatened to quit, and they have the option to buyout another team if any other owner is willing to volunteer 4 cash$ FUN

[blue @chief_tactical]

@sglaze1 @Jeff_Mans @Jardle65 My league (20th anniversary) relegates the bottom two finishers to form into a "duo" , where they must join forces and co-manage a team next season. They must finish above 11th place to un-duo. It's wonderful punishment.

[Bitcoin_apex @bitcoin__apex]

You want to read something mind blowing?

I have calculated when the first Satoshi of the last #Bitcoin will start to be emitted into our world through mining. It will be approximately the period between the year 2104 and 2106.

From the year 2104 on, 298 Satoshi per block will be emitted for 210,000 blocks per inflation plan. If one calculates this down, one comes to the result that sometime in the middle of the 24th halving period - thus between 2104 and 2106 the last Bitcoin will start to appear.

This means that in an approximate period of 35 years a single Bitcoin will be created, which will find its last Satoshi in the year ~2140.

For 35 years, the entire world will be involved with its resources, hardware, energy and time to emit a single Bitcoin.

A single Bitcoin in your possession today is ~35 years of global hash power in the future, which will be exorbitantly higher than it is now.

Hard to grasp. Own Bitcoin.

[Natalie Brunell ⚡️ @natbrunell]

Fiat created the greatest wealth transfer from the working class to the elites.

#Bitcoin is an engine of prosperity that will reverse that.

Great to see you in person @cvpayne, thanks for the having me. And thanks for the inspiration from your book @JeffBooth.

[Jaran Mellerud 🇳🇴 @jmellerud]

Bitcoin mining is an energy arbitrage.

Historically, #bitcoin miners using the most efficient machine available have earned between $0.08 and $0.5 per kWh.

[blue @chief_tactical]

@Justin_Bons @FilmBrief TLDR; Buy my shitcoins.

[blue @chief_tactical]

@Justin_Bons

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

My November public newsletter discusses the long-term US fiscal situation:
https://t.co/wfuxGKu0t4

[Lara Logan @laralogan]

I love this man.

[blue @chief_tactical]

@ODELL Me @ every social party, except I don't do anything for a living I just orange pill financial advisors.

[Jason Choi @mrjasonchoi]

The Definitive Thread on FTX

I met SBF before FTX started, and witnessed their rise and fall. I can't stand @nytimes's puff piece.

If anyone wants to know what happened, send them this.

[Warren Davidson 🇺🇸 @WarrenDavidson]

Anyone attacking self-custody is telling you they oppose individual freedom. They don't trust you and they want someone who they can control to control your assets.

Pass my Keep Your Coins Act to protect self-custody and #DefendFreedom.

[Pierre Rochard @BitcoinPierre]

I still think about this tweet

[blue @chief_tactical]

@LynAldenContact Muay Thai

[Jack Mallers @jackmallers]

"A failure to understand proof of work is a failure to understand #Bitcoin" - @dergigi

Satoshi used difficulty-adjusted proof of work to combine money, time, energy, and information to create the best money in human history.

#Bitcoin's use of proof of work is the innovation.