Dana

pro futures projecting alchemist

liquidity and chaos (macro)

an adherent student of the markets

hedge fund manager - quant analyst

the engineer - the trader

[Dana @ChiefInv]

I'm back.

What's up, what's down?

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨 MICHAEL BURRY WARNS THREE UPCOMING IPOs COULD COMPLETELY CRASH THE STOCK MARKET.

Michael Burry reported that the upcoming public listings for SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are going to pull more capital out of the market than the entire dot-com wave of 2000.

Adjusted for inflation, just these three companies will raise more money than the hundreds of tech firms that flooded the market at the peak of the 2000 bubble.

The historical data from 2000 shows exactly why this is dangerous for stocks.

That year, the market saw 446 IPOs raise a record $108.15 billion. The Nasdaq peaked on March 10, 2000, at the exact moment this massive supply of new shares hit the market, right before crashing 80%.

The crash happened because of a simple liquidity drain.

When giant companies go public, big institutional funds need cash to buy the new shares.

To get that cash, they have to sell their existing stock positions. This creates immediate selling pressure on the most expensive tech stocks.

Today, the setup is identical but much more concentrated. Instead of hundreds of small startups spreading out the drain, just three mega companies are absorbing the market's capital.

This directly impacts current market leaders.

Microsoft has 49% of its $627 billion cloud backlog tied to OpenAI, and Oracle has 54% of its pipeline dependent on it.

The same big funds that need to buy the new IPOs are the ones currently holding these tech giants.

In the first quarter of 2000, the average IPO nearly doubled on its first trading day because cash was easily available.

By the fourth quarter, capital markets dried up.

Gross IPO proceeds collapsed 63% in a single quarter, and average first-day gains dropped to just 14% as companies rushed into layoffs and bankruptcies.

When an unprecedented amount of money is pulled out of existing stocks to fund a single massive IPO wave, the broader market historically runs out of the liquidity needed to sustain its peak.

[Dana @ChiefInv]

@antibearthesis Idiots will claim this time it hit differently because we have invented (chatbots).

What world we are living in.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Berkshire Hathaway discloses new purchases of Alphabet, $GOOGL, Macy's, $M, and Delta Airlines, $DAL.

Berkshire Hathaway has also exited its entire position in Amazon, $AMZN, UnitedHealth, $UNH, and Dominos Pizza, $DPZ.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

You can't make this up:

Iran's trading advice to US investors actually worked.

At 4:12 PM ET on Sunday, Iran's Speaker of the Parliament said pre-market news is a "reverse indicator" and if they "dump" the market, then "go long."

At 6:00 PM ET, S&P 500 futures opened nearly -1% lower and fell just 30 points away from correction territory.

By 11:00 PM ET, S&P 500 futures had reversed all losses and turned green.

Then, at 7:25 AM ET today, President Trump posted that "great progress" is being made on Iran peace talks.

Now, the S&P 500 is trading +100 points above its low seen just hours ago, adding +$900 billion in market cap.

We are in the most unusual times in market history.

[Naval @naval]

The smartest people are all self-taught, even if they went to school.

[Dana @ChiefInv]

@Nostre_damus I did too just by watching it unfold.

[DAN KOE @thedankoe]

The easiest way to get ahead is to commit to a period of skill development. 6-12 months. Pure focus for 2-4 hours a day. Learning and building. Not just binge watching tutorials, but creating quality projects that you, others, or businesses could actually benefit from. But don't just let those projects sit around. Tell the world about them. See if people care enough to pay you. Fix what doesn't work until they do. That's it. That's what most people need to completely turn their life around.

[Dana @ChiefInv]

@Sholly_Pee1 Hii

[Dana @ChiefInv]

@stepfanie Individualism is one derivative of collectivism. Im sorry

[Dana @ChiefInv]

@rawsalerts Sodom will fall.

[gen_tuu @gen_tuu0]

@InnocentMarve11 Gambling
Join the mafia maybe
Cyber crime
Hacking
Pushing drugs (optional)

[Dana @ChiefInv]

@StockMKTNewz A mosquito is landing on your face:

[Dana @ChiefInv]

@reeyah_sa Fuck off

[Tom @t0mbfx]

If you’re trading and while being younger than 25

You’re way ahead of the curve

A lot of the profitable traders I know only started in their 30s and 40s and are now making $10,000s a month from it

You guys starting young have so much time to become profitable, compound and make a ton of money

Just stay consistent and you’ll get there

[J trader @jtrader]

What separates you from the crowd isn’t intelligence.

It’s that you’ve suffered more without quitting.

[Nicholas Fabiano, MD @NTFabiano]

Purpose is the most underrated antidepressant

[Dan Cheung @wannabechamp]

Do you trade better alone or in a community?

How do you know when to exit a trade?

[Dan Cheung @wannabechamp]

The sooner you accept that trading takes longer than you want.

The sooner it happens faster than you expect.