hansch

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

We like math around here.

$MSTR

[hansch @chindlerh]

@Top100Rick Did he make par?

[941 @level941]

Here’s what’s happening with $MARA PA

If hedge desks realize they never get shares they forced to unwind shorts. They’re hedging because the strike on the convert is around $20. When stock goes up they short. It’s typical convert arbitrage. Every time the stock rises toward $20–22, they just re-short or add to the hedge to stay neutral.

You need the bond to behave like EQUITY. As the convert’s delta approaches 1, they must buy back the hedge.

Cash settlement signal does this. Or fundamentals. Fundamentals are changing. Short squeeze coming.

MARA has already stopped being a single revenue btc miner and has become an energy compute infrastructure company.

The acquisition of Exaion, the nuclear backed data center buildouts, the air gapped inference pilots, and the power management contracts have turned the business into a multi line platform tied to electricity and computation rather than spot Bitcoin beta.

The balance sheet now will start reflecting cash flow from hosting, grid response, and early AI inference workloads. Shifting its earnings driver to the stability of energy and compute demand.

The language coming from Washington and Riyadh has begun to mirror MARA’s messaging. The CFO now speaks in policy terminology about electrons as the new oil and compute as currency, aligning perfectly with the DoE focus on sovereign compute capacity. That synchronization of corporate and government vocabulary is a signal that contract flow or formal designation is coming.

Financially. The zero coupon 2032 convert provides nearly a 1B dollars in deployable capital at no interest cost, allowing expansion without P and L drag and delaying any equity dilution until after valuation multiples re rate higher.

Every new revenue stream, either monetary through Bitcoin, industrial through power optimization, and AI through inference, carries a higher multiple, so as those segments scale the blended valuation should rise naturally from a low 20s range toward a $40 to $60 infrastructure range.

The remaining disconnect is in the tape, where mechanical short interest from convert hedging hides improving fundamentals. Once the stock holds above roughly 24 to 25 dollars, the convertible’s delta approaches 1 and those hedge positions must cover, turning former sellers into buyers at the same moment that policy momentum and AI revenue arrive. That is when a technical squeeze becomes a fundamental repricing. What looks like speculation is simply the market catching up to what MARA has already become, a power grid anchored compute utility whose earnings, assets, and national relevance no longer resemble a cyclical crypto miner.

Either path breaks the ceiling and turns the same overhang into buy pressure. Short squeeze. This is a 100B dollar company.

-941

[Stack Hodler @stackhodler]

I understand that many of you only followed me for my Bitcoin posts.

And I've been bullish about Bitcoin on X and in real life since about $3K per coin.

But my primary mission is to provide my family with a high quality of life.

If that's your goal too, then stick around.

Since I was 15, the majority of my mental energy has gone into figuring out how I could avoid the rat race and live an uncommonly good life.

I knew I wanted to provide a top class life for my family one day.

- A quality home in a safe and beautiful environment
- Freedom to work on stuff that interests me
- Ability to prioritize health
- No financial stress

I just didn't know how I'd get there from zero.

I knew I needed capital to invest.
So I focused my attention on how to get some.

I put all of my energy and focus into building businesses.

I learned to code, sell, and market.

When I finally I turned sweat equity into 7 figures of capital, I moved my attention towards where to allocate that capital.

I studied.

I learned how money worked, I learned about debt cycles, I studied all the different asset classes.

And concluded that Bitcoin was the biggest opportunity.

When March 2020 came, I went all in.

I knew that it was a ridiculous opportunity.

And I've been spelling it out on X since sub $10K.

Before Michael Saylor started evangelizing.

Now everyone knows Bitcoin is going to $1 million and beyond... But it's not the same kind of non-consensus investment as it was at $5K.

You had to have brass balls (or ovaries) to be backing up the truck in March 2020 when people thought the world was ending.

Today you're following Larry Fink's guidance.

Don't get me wrong, Bitcoin is still a great investment.

It's hugely de-risked and it's still my largest holding by far.

But I believe there are more asymmetric opportunities out there now.

If Bitcoin is your guiding light. Your religion. Your purpose.

You will overlook these opportunities.

You will unfollow me if I talk about them.

And that's totally fine. I understand.

Bitcoin is safe and easy to hold. And you'll do well.

But if you want a return profile similar to $3K Bitcoin on a similar timeline... You need to look elsewhere.

This is where many go astray.
They buy shitcoins.
Or they silo themselves into exclusively Bitcoin-related investments.

But that limited thinking has lead many Bitcoiners to slaughter via BTC treasury companies.

Many of which are down 90% from their peak.

I will never recommend a vaporware shit coin or "the next Bitcoin."

Nor will I highlight something I don't believe in.

I will always share my own genuine thoughts.

That doesn't mean they'll be right.
But they will be honest.

I've gotten a lot of sh*t for sharing a bullish thesis on Bakkt.

Let's check back on that in two years.

But in the meantime, check out what I wrote in May 2024 about Bitcoin miners converting to AI compute (see screenshot).

Iren has outperformed Bitcoin by about 800% since then.

Bitfarms is up 100% since I mentioned it 8 days ago.

I don't share this with you to give you FOMO.

I share because if your guiding light is providing a high quality life for your family... If you're open to genuine opportunity...

Then you will realize that the AI and robotics revolution will create more opportunities like this.

And a smart, tactical exposure to this once in a lifetime economic transition could make sense for you.

Some other Bitcoiners wouldn't write this out of fear of the maxi backlash.

But I've never cared about how many followers I have.

So I'm free to say:

Make your family (and God if that's your thing) your guiding light and watch what opportunities appear in front of you.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

You’d have to be an idiot to buy the S&P 500 over Bitcoin.

The “blue-chip” index is basically a retirement home for corporate zombies. Roughly 1 in 10 companies can’t even cover their interest payments from profits.

They roll debt like a broke uncle maxing out new credit cards to pay off old ones.

BIS and Fed data show this infestation ballooned after 2008, and MarketWatch estimates ~11.5% of listed firms are walking dead.

So when you buy the S&P, you’re not buying “the American economy,” you’re subsidizing deadweight airlines, retail chains that should’ve died with malls, and Fortune 500 “leaders” who live off covenant loopholes and refis.

Your 401(k) is basically a feeding tube for soulless equity husks.

Bitcoin will compound with a much higher CAGR, trouncing every major asset across nearly all rolling windows, without begging Jerome Powell for another hit of zero rates.

One is antifragile, the other is an undead index ETF that smells like formaldehyde.

[hansch @chindlerh]

#bama

[hansch @chindlerh]

Hey @SDOTtraffic, you should consider firing whoever approved new bus lane on Westlake

[Safinaz Elhadary @Safinazelhadry]

Got a bunch of DMs asking how I turned my resume into a Netflix style site, so I made a tutorial.
Honestly feels illegal how easy it was to build in a couple hours!

Shoutout to @OpenAI and @v0 for making it insanely simple!

[hansch @chindlerh]

@HukAleksandra To keep scam going

[hansch @chindlerh]

@mikealfred They only need to keep it down until next raise

[Stack Hodler @stackhodler]

Bitcoin is Actually finite, far more portable, easily verifiable, and easily divisible.

- Gold and silver production increases with demand, which naturally increases supply and lowers price.

- Neither gold nor silver can be sent over the Internet. Meanwhile the economy has moved online.

- Gold and silver need to be melted down to truly verify. BTC can be verified by anyone for free.

- Gold and silver are impractical to divide. They come in preset sizes, wheras I can buy a whole Bitcoin and use it 1 Satoshi at a time if I want.

Gold and Silver win only if all power / internet go down. In which case we have more important things to worry about.

They can potentially be considered a hedge to BTC somehow failing in some unforeseen way.

Which is actually the only reason I still have physical gold.

[Stack Hodler @stackhodler]

You need to understand why Bitcoin and gold are both up ~70% in the past 14 months.

And why the Nasdaq is flat despite the unfolding AI and robotics revolution, the dollar is crashing, and long term US treasuries continue to lose value.

The writing has been on the wall since 2020.

The meme stocks and shitcoins were a distraction.

Bitcoin and gold - hard money without counter-party risk - has been the most important investment thesis to understand this decade.

The global monetary order is rapidly changing.

And the status quo is dead.

There's still time to allocate to hard money and protect your capital.

But the charts are starting to scream.

We will soon reach a tipping point when the average investor understands the precise reason that Gold and Bitcoin are outperforming everything else so dramatically.

When the average person understands what Bitcoiners, gold bugs, and gold-stacking central bankers have understood for years now...

There's going to be a race to allocate to hard money without counter-party risk.

Gold will continue to pump based on its reputation and enormous liquidity.

But Bitcoin will continue to gain the most in percentage terms.

Equity index funds were an innovation that took a while to catch on.

But once they did, every Joe Blow with a 401(k) was blindly allocating a percentage of their paycheck into them.

The same will happen with Bitcoin.

I'll repeat: It's not a coincidence that Larry Fink managed to roll out the Bitcoin ETF when he did.

There's a wave of capital coming.

And it has barely even started.

[Mike Alfred @mikealfred]

If you think Michael Saylor should be named Chairman of the Federal Reserve after Powell is fired, please like and retweet this.

[Coach Kev - SalesBody @AskCoachKev]

One of the biggest reasons I never get fat is because of what I buy at the grocery store.

Here's everything you'd find on my weekly grocery list that makes staying lean easy as hell:

(save this to bring on your next trip to the store)

1. "Vital Pursuit" Frozen Pizza

370 calories
33g protein

All it takes is a few minutes in the air-fryer

[hansch @chindlerh]

@btcjvs So earnings will be $10.57 for one quarter then back to flat or down the next one? I’m not sure anyone will experience bewilderment here

[hansch @chindlerh]

@republicseattle 😃😃

[BRITISH HODL ❤️‍🔥🐂❤️‍🔥 @BritishHodl]

Ready for $150,000 #Bitcoin in December according to @100trillionUSD who’s nailed the last 2 months almost to the $?

I don’t care if this timeline is true, it’s truly bullish and I love being bullish, truly.

I’m never selling so price targets are meaningless fun guideposts.

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

Dan Ives said he thinks Tesla $TSLA could be going to $500-$600 in the next 18 months

[Jordan Walker @JayW132]

Bitcoin is a cheat code.

Here are 10 #bitcoin websites that are so valuable they feel illegal to know: