this quote from Bessent in 2006, on embedded macro bets + hidden risks, has to be emphasized (from Drobny)
"The 50-30-20 Rule"
>50% of a stock's move is the mkt
>30% is sector
>only 20% is stock-specific
today, multi-mgrs have broken that down into infinitely smaller slices
but part of me thinks Bessent -- who likely learned this "rule" from Soros and Druck -- has it right
art, not science...better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong
but with a lot of ideas, ppl don't understand the bet they're making
i.e. "I like exxon mobil" without thinking about:
>what % of your return will be driven by the price of oil?
>why exxon vs any other peer?
>if you're bullish oil, why wouldn't u make the cleanest bet and just buy a barrel of oil/CL1?
then u might get into, "I like exxon but don't want to bet on oil, so I'll short chevron against it to hedge out commodity exposure"
but in practice, unless u really know what ur doing, this creates more problems than it solves
esp w/ rise of multi-mgr where everyone is forced into pairs
so rather than adding complexity to the idea u are prob better off pulling out all the embedded/hidden bets u are making, and then just breaking it all down thru some checklist, like:
"would I be better off here buying a basket of 5 ideas, 2% each, vs one 10% idea"
or
"for this idea shifting industry dynamics, why don't I buy all 3 players" instead of bucketing one idea as "pay up for best" or "buy cheapest" or "buy middle/catch-up trade"
ppl shy away from these approaches even though they suck at sizing... ur best idea ex post never seems to be the one that was given max $$ on jan 1
some cognitive bias is at work against equal-weighted baskets, where they'd feel stupid saying "I'm a fundamental expert who can't pick individual winners"
but if its just u by urself ("trade quietly") then who cares lol
as the saying goes...the dumb money ceases to be the dumb money when it recognizes its limitations.
We desperately need a smart model router.
1. We’re seeing a model explosion: GPT-5.6, Grok 4.5, Muse Spark 1.1, GLM-5.2, and Fable 5 all launched within the past month.
2. Even for a single model family like GPT-5.6, there're 3 (Sol, Terra, Luna) and 5 reasoning-effort levels.
That is far too many decisions for users to make manually.
The best model should be selected automatically based on the task, latency, quality, and cost.
Candidly, I think that most people hate AI right now. The sentiment is *very* bad outside of our bubble.
I believe the reason for this is that unlike people in our bubble, most people haven't experienced the benefits of AI first-hand.
People see news stories of crazy fund raises, money changing hands, and data centers being built.
Instead of seeing the massive productivity gains of agents, you see a chat box where you can have it generate a meme or tell you a fart joke. That's the current perception.
To bring AGI to everyone, we need to distribute these capabilities broadly. The unification of Chat & Codex is a step in this direction.
Still a lot of work to do, but this is OpenAI's mission and we're serious about it.
Phiagate, explained in horse terms
You go from HorseReviews dotcom over to ClydesdalesDirect dotcom. You have Phia installed as an extension. You buy a stunning Clydesdale from the website using its online shopping features, knowing that this particular horse breed — large and powerful, with an arched neck, high withers, and a sloped shoulder — is perfect for your use case after HorseReviews educated you on all this.
You don't notice anything, but Phia was part of the transaction. It inserted an attribution code into the transaction process without you knowing, allowing it to collect the commission ClydesdalesDirect pays out to businesses that refer customers to them and effectively stealing that commission from HorseReviews dotcom, which actually referred you.
HorseReviews dotcom likely paid Google to advertise its site so that ultimately they could collect this commission. Phia did nothing but replace HorseReviews' affiliate code with its own.
That's basically what the Bloomberg story alleges.
>i got banned from OpenAI for "Cyber Abuse"
>no idea what I did
>paste the ban notice into Codex
>ask it to figure out what triggered the ban
>Codex found that I asked it for an API key to my own server
>Codex writes appeal
>Codex submits appeal
>a few minutes later appeal auto-approved by some AI at OpenAI
banned by AI, convicted by AI, defended by AI, and pardoned by AI in about 10 minutes
Christopher Nolan on AI:
“I’ve never seen a more rapid wholesale dismissal of a supposedly foundational jump in technology in my lifetime. So much energy has been expended on bringing in AI, but if you look at that generation’s reaction, they’re utterly rejecting it. [My children’s] judgment of AI slop has been immediate and harsh. They see it for what it is very quickly – and it’s much easier for them to identify it, because it grew out of an online world they know really well. And while that doesn’t mean that every aspect of the technology is useless or meaningless, in film-making it’s hitting at exactly the wrong time. After years of driving towards heavily virtual environments, we’re seeing a renewed interest in more tactile, more real forms of storytelling.”
🔗 https://t.co/vyUx6mHzaH
/SUPERBAD/ (2007, Mottola, ****) Back then I got so much shit from my betters for putting this on my 10 Best List and predicting it would become a teen classic like FAST TIMES. And look what happened.
George Mackay and Tom Ford at Wimbledon.
George can next be seen in Tom’s Film “Cry to Heaven’, starring Adele, Nicholas Hoult, Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Owen Cooper.
Saying any new movie “looks like Lawrence of Arabia” is like saying it looks like Citizen Kane or 2001, filmmakers have been using the grammar of these films whether consciously or not for fifty years already