ChrisK

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@unusual_whales This will be like those store gift cards, which you can spend only on store-specific items!

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@HE4DEYES @calvinfroedge Unfortunately, the way this whole situation unfolds, that would be the least harmful scenario. This is a geopolitical war, and we most likely gonna get actual oil shortages and rationing in a few weeks.

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@calvinfroedge A disastrous situation that has been brought about and further exacerbated by incompetent leadership that live in a fantasy world..

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@calvinfroedge Oil finally started spiking! Today is the deadline for physical settlement, shorts closing positions, as they are obliged to buy back physical oil otherwise (which probably doesn't exist). A ridiculous shitshow, in the meantime the VLCCs out of the Gulf are heading to China!

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@DonMiami3 It reminds the shishow when Trumpcoin and Melania coin were launched in crypto (Jan 2025). It marked the top for crypto last cycle (double top, along with Oct 2025, to be precise).

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@calvinfroedge The most important is to track how many ships are going back in. Market has priced in the absolute best case scenario (as if its an IT issue that can be solved by flipping a switch!). Best asymmetric trade in a long time, they are hysterical and want to liquidate everyone.

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@Cyclestrade @calvinfroedge The oil/energy stocks are probably getting washed out to liquidate longs and create liquidity for new entries. I am expecting strength from next week. The whole thing will probably mirror the late 2021/2022 cycle.

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@Cyclestrade @calvinfroedge *lower high

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@Cyclestrade @calvinfroedge This is literally a higher low on $qqq with bearish divergence. They are sucking every last bit of exit liquidity, next week is going to be a bloodbath.

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@DarioCpx They need to cover their shorts and offload them to retail. This was the short volume needed so that the price won't abruptly spike. I think today is the physical settlement deadline, expect volatility (and tomorrow market is closed)

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@willmrry @DarioCpx You can't. Supply is almost the same as demand, can't magically increase it. We had a major disruption patched by reserve release (and China not buying). Now, less supply will be bid for physical delivery, if its artificially low, it will be scooped up immediately.

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@calvinfroedge Now its nothing more than an orchestrated effort (headlines, posts) to liquidated longs, so they load up for the inevitable price spike due to supply disruption the coming weeks. Watch the narrative change next Monday, when they suddenly realize the upcoming shortages.

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@Pawlicker88 @calvinfroedge This is catastrophic long-term, especially with the deficits and debt expanding non-stop. We are saving the tree but ignoring the forest.

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@Pawlicker88 @calvinfroedge Everything revolves around the markets, hyperfinancialization everywhere. That's what China and Russia are capitalizing on, using finite resources, gold/oil, etc. The war literally stopped because US would run out of oil, but everything is fine for now, prices stayed low..

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@Pawlicker88 @calvinfroedge Indeed, but at the same time, the current geopolitical climate needs to be weighted. You can't flood the market with reserve oil at absurdly low prices. If the oil routes are blocked again, you are essentially a sitting duck, can't mobilize anything,national security is at risk.

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@Wehtammzo @utopia_escape That's indeed what's going to happen, they will say now that the strait is open and oil is flowing, there is no need to drain the reserve. We will finally get real price discovery.

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@RaymondDuck6 @Protractinium @Lexonefun @OilCfd Excellent analysis, economic warfare using finite resources, in which financial engineering eventually fails. It started with the Russia-Ukraine conflict (precious metals, rare earths) and is intensifying, aiming at the dollar's status as the reserve currency.

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@chinodgk @dtarian04 Its because they are depleting their reserves at an accelerated pace. Draining the bucket, while the refill is still shut. Its atupid, if you ask me, but it's what keeps prices low. They would have to fill them up at some point though..

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@calvinfroedge What many also fail to account is that we are entering an era of deglobalization, resources are weaponized, every country needs to hoard resources, as supply chain distributions would become more frequent. The lower it goes, the better so we can accumulate oil producers cheaply.

[ChrisK @chkarx83]

@calvinfroedge At these prices, producers, especially the ones in the Middle East, have no incentive to flood the market with oil, doesn't justify the security premium, their revenues now need to account for this as well.