Chris Lytle

Partner at Smith Point Capital

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

Starlink will not be legit competitor in urban (until wholesale deal) but they will in rural where existing customers are. Will end up displacing rural tower infra as well. These are huge numbers and easy pickings globally with a 20X increase in capacity just like they have taken out aero/maritime markets

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

@Umbisam @EchoStar Investors prescribing no negative value to DBS and Boost. DBS/DTV likely to merge in near-term and should drive significant equity value beyond $10-12B of debt. Boost will grow moderately and likely to be within SpaceX over time as vehicle — one MNO will blink on wholesale

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

@dan_tmt To be fair, SpaceX now annualizing at closer to $35-40B now given A deal and Cursor pro forma

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

@darkstarsats T most likely partner given attractive wholesale rates with SATS, their Board’s emphasis on wholesale going forward and likelihood Boost gets acquired by Starlink

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

@CCapLP @darkstarsats @dan_tmt @WaltLightShed Agreed. They could not have a more powerful argument on force majeure here. It spells out directly being forced to stop network build

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

@BDeveran CBRS and AWS-3 worth much more than Street estimates. Finally, interests aligned for tax advantaged SATS SpsceX equity swap post DBS spin. There is almost $100/share of other asset upside here

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

@BDeveran The miss on this analysis is equity value on merging DBS & DTV. 4X pro forma EBITDA is $32B EV with $12B of debt. Separate entity (maybe CNXX) will be majority owned by Ergen — FCF pays down $12B of debt in 3 years. SATS gets $5-10B of equity value

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

@BDeveran The upside on other assets is the big miss on Street right now. DBS/DTV merger enhances value of 12 MHz in a shared spectrum scenario. Boost in SpaceX hands worth much more given X platform scale and increasingly adversarial stance versus legacy MNO’s.

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

@Kimerrrs @Umbisam Once DBS spun into DTV, logical route is to sell SATS shares to SpaceX tax free — all of those assets (Boost, CBRS, AWS) synergistic. There is at least $80/share of other assets and tax advantage of selling to SpaceX overcome discounts on assets

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

@peter_adderton @EchoStar @JusticeATR @FCC @SpaceX Peter, there is no SpaceX IPO without this spectrum. Stop the nonsense

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

@CCapLP @FREESPEECH1017 @GlobalSenate Classic deal where both sides win. Absolute value of SATS spectrum worth much more than $20B to SpaceX TAM and stock compnentn now worth $40B or so. Could argue worth much more than that to SpaceX with international priority rights

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

@brad_patnaude @dan_tmt Ergen wanting SpaceX stock clearly the driver of the transaction

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

@WaltLightShed @AyeAye_CAPT VZ tried to haircut them on any prospective shortfall on auction of minority interest. Now auction including Ergen & SpaceX will drive buy of all AWS-3 spectrum at much higher prices

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

@BeckDavidsonV @dan_tmt 100 pct agree. $4B of pro forma FCF and synergies wish likely platform combined debt in 3 years. Could see potential synergies with Starlink as well

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

@brad_patnaude @origoinvest Missing the big picture here. Ergen will take majority control of DBS/DTV and synergies much larger. Pro forma $4-5B of FCF and pro forma debt of $12

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

@peter_adderton @brad_patnaude Tried to build something great and failed. No shame in that. Obviously did not want to sell but had a back-up plan and played pretty well. Will be worth much more than if he sold his dying DBS business to VZ or T years ago. Have you even raised any outside capital?

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

@peter_adderton @brad_patnaude Please stop. It was only logical path (getting spectrum to market fast) and Boost still doing 650k more gross adds than X/quarter. Will just end up with Starlink as a viable MNO competitor in rural/suburban areas

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

@peter_adderton @brad_patnaude Who cares what analysts ask on call. They were ones that missed $15 to $115 so don’t think they are capable of asking anything remotely useful on remaining assets which are generating $2B of cash flow with no capex and $15-30B of net cash/spectrum plus optionality on DBS/DTV

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

@CCapLP Him saying nothing is a good thing. Trust me

[Chris Lytle @chlytle33]

@HedgeyeComm @grok @TSOH_Investing For global tower infrastructure in rural areas (where tower economics never made any sense, spectrum would allow SpaceX to go after $15-40B opportunity. US opp is likely 20k towers (2 carriers at $4k all-in costs/month) and global opp 10X bigger