Choubris

always learning

[Choubris @choubris]

@NicoperJES @TSOH_Investing epub and pdf please :)

[Choubris @choubris]

@Alex13901873 @AgendaAustria Was ist denn hier die Quelle?

[Choubris @choubris]

Not a problem if you simply have less people

[Unemployed Capital Allocator @atelicinvest]

It's kind of hilarious because every person in software (or any company) will tell you how difficult it is to find good executives - project managers, team leads, division heads - ppl that can oversee projects, clearly define requirements, sort of priorities, debate around opposing requirements, be adaptable where req'd, make ~correct decisions with imperfect information and roll with the punches....

These people aren't like 1 in 5 or 1 in 10 - they are more like 1 in 10000+ talent.

But yeah - if we just gave everyone access to unlimited token generation, people will magically figure all this really tricky stuff out.

[Choubris @choubris]

@atelicinvest Next step is to somehow limit it to Google. Same thing happened with regular web and 'bot protection'

[Choubris @choubris]

@civisVIE Stimmt, da war was mit der deutschen Kultur im 20. Jhdt.

[Choubris @choubris]

I’m not long enough AI

[José Valim @josevalim]

We now have, as far as I know, a working version! https://t.co/BUmhmMoeCw

@chris_mccord used a sprite, pointed Claude Code to the gist, and Opus 4.6 delivered a working x86 version, but still failed on ARM. @pmarreck then delivered a patch that fixed the ARM version. Hooray!

[Choubris @choubris]

@ArenaManCapital Why are you on Sonnet? Also, tried Kimi or Gemini Flash?

[Choubris @choubris]

@Investmentideen Well if the inelastic market hypothesis is true, shouldn't you (we all) be momentum trading?

[Choubris @choubris]

IMHO it is knife fight for every new customer. But expansion for existing customers still possible. Everyone waiting for what AI does/will do. I don't see it really changing economics of SaaS, ppl still need software by a vendor it won't be 100% vibecoded in house until the point we have true AGI and then who cares let's explore the stars.

[Choubris @choubris]

@blondesnmoney IBKR Basket Trader?

[Choubris @choubris]

Can’t believe I paid for X premium just because I got annoyed at something and wanted to write a long quote tweet.

[Choubris @choubris]

I’ve actually built and sold software, and obviously have been “Claude-pilled” for a bit now. My take is different: “Vibe coding” actually is perfect for migrating 15 years of messy prod data, creating hundreds of integrations and rebuilding things. Because you already have known-good test cases to let it run against. See what simonw recently did with porting JustHTML.

BUT: This doesn’t mean CSU is a zero, because just because it can be done (and rather easily/cheaply) doesn’t solve any of the other parts of the actual business of software. Just because I can now create software faster doesn’t mean it is economically to go after a tiny niche that is already served by an existing company that now ALSO can create software faster. Everyone’s got to race just to remain in the same place.

[Paul, not a CFA @Investmentideen]

Call me out in a few years when all my software investments go to zero:

AI (incl. “vibe coding”) commoditizes code, not systems of record. CSU owns mission‑critical systems of record in niche markets. Those moats are data, workflows, integrations & switching costs – not the difficulty of writing code.

Think about what CSU actually buys: 20‑year‑old billing, practice management, municipal, utility, hospital, etc. systems that are completely entangled with how that vertical runs. Replacing them is a multi‑year capex + career‑risking project. AI doesn’t change that risk calculus.

Vibe coding makes it cheap to stand up “an app”. It does not:
• migrate 15 years of messy production data
• recreate hundreds of integrations (banks, tax authorities, devices)
• rebuild reports auditors & regulators already trust
• retrain an entire workforce on new workflows

Most CSU businesses sit at a control point in the value chain. They are the authoritative ledger for money, people, or regulated data. That’s qualitatively different from a point solution that sends emails or draws dashboards on top of someone else’s data.

AI is great at “systems of action”: generating content, orchestrating tasks, moving data between APIs. Those are the tools that get nuked – thin SaaS wrappers around Gmail, Stripe, HubSpot, QuickBooks, etc. They have shallow data gravity and low switching costs.

But systems of record (ERP/CRM/core VMS) encode:
• strict data models & referential integrity
• audit trails, permissions, compliance
• deterministic workflows that boards, auditors, and regulators understand.
You don’t vibe‑code your general ledger or your clinical records.

We’ve seen a similar wave already: low‑code/no‑code. For a decade you could drag‑and‑drop your own business app. Did enterprises kill SAP, Oracle, or niche ERPs? No – they use low‑code at the edges while keeping standardized core systems. AI just turns that dial further.

The “every company will build their own ERP with AI agents” story underestimates non‑coding costs: product mgmt, domain expertise, change mgmt, security, incident response, integration maintenance. Most CSU end‑markets don’t even have the teams to run that experiment.

On margins: AI is more likely to be margin‑accretive for CSU‑type vendors. It:
• boosts dev productivity (faster features/integrations with same R&D)
• automates support, onboarding, documentation
• improves internal ops (billing, collections, forecasting)

Can buyers use AI to squeeze prices? Some, at the margin. But in most CSU verticals, software is 1–2% of revenue and mission‑critical. The binding constraint is risk, not license cost. As long as the app works and is maintained, there isn’t much appetite to rock the boat.

Meanwhile vendors can repackage AI as upsell: copilots, agents, forecasting, process mining. Core ERP/CRM pricing stays per‑seat/per‑site; AI is a new line item or higher tier. That’s ARPU expansion, not commoditization. The code got cheaper – the outcome got more valuable.

Where AI really hurts is exactly what you flagged: point solutions. Single‑feature SaaS that:
• sits at the UI layer
• talks to a few APIs
• has no proprietary data model or workflow depth.
Those become prompts: “Hey model, do what this $30/month SaaS was doing.”

Net effect:
• Point solutions & generic horizontal tools: heavy pressure.
• Core vertical systems of record: AI is an add‑on + cost reducer, not a replacement.
• CSU’s skill set (buying sticky, boring, regulated, low‑IT‑budget software) is aligned with where AI is least disruptive.

Could AI still reshuffle winners within verticals? Sure. Incumbents that ignore AI may lose to incumbents that embrace it. Some CSU properties will under‑invest and stagnate. But that’s competition at the margin, not “vibe coding obsoletes the whole business model.”

So why doesn’t AI commoditize CSU? Because their moat isn’t lines of code. It’s being the entrenched, audited, regulator‑blessed system that runs payroll, billing, tax, and operations for thousands of tiny niches. AI will sit on top of that stack long before it replaces it.

Oh and I haven't even started talking about the complexity of running a software company and building a team.

$CSU.TO $ACP.WA $SGN.WA $TOI.V $LMN.V

[Choubris @choubris]

@atelicinvest Time to escape the permanent underclass by value investing

[Choubris @choubris]

@blondesnmoney @SingularityRes Give Tailscale a try to make logging in from all your devices easy

[Choubris @choubris]

@Kreuzmann13 Depends on cultural context. Country and industry?

[Choubris @choubris]

@evfcfaddict @derhagemann Anleihe?! 14%?! Wo unterschreibe ich?

[Choubris @choubris]

@NicoperJES BAWAG doesn't qualify?

[Choubris @choubris]

@NicoperJES Nothing good…?

[Choubris @choubris]

@NicoperJES "Be concise. Fulfill all regulations. Make no mistakes." 🤣