Sacal

Full Time Trader - Consistently Profitable Since 2017

[Sacal @CalvaneseSam]

@OddStockTrader you’re a brilliant guy. You think this spacex ipo can double on opening to retail. 3.5 trillion plus or it’s just to big at 1.5 trillion?

[Sacal @CalvaneseSam]

@AOTtrades $MXL giving a slight undercut and 20ema backtest

[Sacal @CalvaneseSam]

@manruipa Do you see this as potentially deadly if left untreated for another 5-10 years? I know my PEM has gotten progressively worse since 2021 and I’m developing additional symptoms like brain fog and dizziness.

[Sacal @CalvaneseSam]

@manruipa So what is the cure?

[Sacal @CalvaneseSam]

@manruipa Hi Manuel, thank you for all your hard work. This has been a brutal 5+ years for me and my PEM has been progressive. Any thoughts on a timeline when a treatment therapy might get some legs and become widely available? I’m currently in my 4th week of Rapamycin….

[Roy Mattox @RoyLMattox]

We added 15% exposure today in the following stocks:
$Amzn, $Pwr, $Vrt, and $ROKU

[Sacal @CalvaneseSam]

@gurgavin Yes because earrings will start dropping precipitously 27/28

[Sacal @CalvaneseSam]

@OddStockTrader What happened to spy 720?

[Sacal @CalvaneseSam]

@antibearthesis Isn’t that notional value on the puts?

[Sacal @CalvaneseSam]

@NBoydGibbins I had severe worsening of PEM at 5 and ZERO improvements of any kind at 2.5. Didn’t help muscle pain, brain fog, PEM or anything else related to my long COVID. I’ll probably drop out of the Scripps trial early.

[Sacal @CalvaneseSam]

@OddStockTrader time to buy some RE down there?

[Sacal @CalvaneseSam]

@AOTtrades I’m confused by this trade as $nvda makes up 18% of the index and was nicely pulling back into support

[Sacal @CalvaneseSam]

@abdulthengineer @AOTtrades Smart Man!

[Gaurav Srivastava @Gaurav_Cx10]

One of the greatest investors of all time, William O’Neil, breaks down how he actually read a weekly chart.
In just 7 mins, he covered the things most ignore:
-Base patterns
-Exact Entry Zone + 10 week EMA
-Earnings strength
-RS
-Progressive exposure
This is how you train your eyes

[Long COVID Labs @longcovidlabs]

Fascinating new research from @PlzSolveCFS: What is going on with T cells in Long COVID and ME/CFS? 🤔👇

In this talk, researchers
Dr. Liisa Selin, Dr. Ayano Kohlgruber, and Dr. Roshan Kumar discuss their newest work, arguing that dysfunctional T-cells are driving MECFS and Long COVID.

They examined the CD8+ T cells of patients with these diseases, and found signs of clonal expansion - which only happens when the immune system is chronically exposed to an antigen. 🦠

Clonal expansion can happen in response to a foreign antigen (such as a virus or bacteria), however it can also happen in autoimmunity, where the immune system has accidentally recognized part of the person's own body as "foreign."

They also identified signs of exhaustion in these T cells- meaning that they're becoming worn out trying to fight these antigens, whether they're foreign (as in the case of chronic infection) or self-antigens (as in autoimmunity).

In MECFS and LC patients, they found their CD8 tells were able to produce much lower levels of Interferon-gamma and TNF-a compared to healthy controls.🧪

Previously, Dr. Selin and other researchers had studied an experimental, nebulized treatment called Inspiritol (unfortunately it is not available to patients at this time).

In this new work, the team tested Inspiritol's effects on these exhausted T cells in-vitro, and found it was able to greatly improve the cells' function.

**Other Chronic Pathogens**

Dr. Selin explains that once you have the overactivation and subsequent exhaustion of the CD8+ T cells, it impairs the immune system's ability to keep other chronic pathogens that may be in the person's body under control. This is why patients with these diseases may have a reactivation of herpesviruses such as EBV, CMV, HHV-6, enteroviruses, tick-borne illnesses, and more.🦠

**Identifying T cell Targets**

In the future stage of the work, this team will use technology developed by Dr. Kumar and his company that seeks to identify exactly which pathogens these T-cells are targeting.

Knowing the cause of this abnormal clonal exhaustion will help us to understand exactly why this process is occurring, shedding light on the underlying cause of LC and MECFS.

✨It's pretty exciting to see these advances occurring! Although it may not always seem like it, we get closer to the answers every day!✨

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[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time.

He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha.

He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life."

He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett.

But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them.

Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does.

Enjoy!

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:00 The Kindest Thing
13:19 Trading vs. Investing
17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet
22:24 The Existential Risks of AI
29:54 The Nature of Trading
31:46 Bitcoin
35:55 Bubbles
42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ
46:00 Information Overload
47:07 Passion for Markets
50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation
54:18 The Workless World
56:03 Journalism
1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life
1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

[Sacal @CalvaneseSam]

@wtogami It's done absolutely nothing for me. It has zero to negative benefit for long covid folks with PEM

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy:

"We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%.

If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years.

Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP.

10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect.

In the stock market, we're over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country.

And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008.

The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows.

So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that's because that's an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now.

Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high and it's gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view."

[TraderLion @TraderLion]

Most traders have no rule for when a loser leaves the portfolio. The average winner held 8 days, the average loser gone in 24 hours — that asymmetry is the whole game.

Ariel Hernandez anchors this framework with a Dan Zanger quote and builds it into something concrete: use the average as your stop after a 6–7% move, and let the math do the rest.

Winners run. Losers get cut before they can argue back.

[Sacal @CalvaneseSam]

@TaterMashin @Jkylebass @Geiger_Capital @JasonEBurack What years did this begin, exponentially take off and then continue? What years could it have been reversed because we had recovered the 08 financial crisis?