The Keane

[jim iuorio @jimiuorio]

Why is housing unaffordable? I’m getting a bit tired of people thinking the government just “made mistakes”. If I wanted to make housing unaffordable I’d do 3 simple things…
1) flood the system with 8 trillion extra dollars while specifically buying mortgage backed bonds.
2) after everyone refis at artificially low rates, jack up mortgages from 2.7% to 7.5% in 19 months locking down supply.
3) encourage 20 million migrants to enter the country to compete for supply.
Math is not controversial…math is not racist…math doesn’t care about your opinions…

[Horse @TheFlowHorse]

One of my favorite quotes is whether you think you can, or you think you can’t, you’re right.🔥

[Ron DeSantis @RonDeSantis]

Finalizing budget review/vetoes and I can report:

FY 26-27 will be the fourth straight year that Florida has reduced its budget.

Rainy day fund = full (and more than triple the size from 2019).

The budget represents 44% of the size of the budget of New York (the state closes to FL in population, with NY having between 3 and 4 million fewer residents).

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Vance: "I think Nixon's historical legacy is enjoying a bit of a renaissance, and deservedly so. I joked that if Watergate happened tomorrow, it would be like a 12 hours news story. The idea that it took down a presidency is crazy."

[Compounding Quality @QCompounding]

How do you deal with stress Jeff Bezos

[Adam Carolla @adamcarolla]

Perfect

[Patrick Moorhead @PatrickMoorhead]

$MU hits after the bell. The business is strong. The setup is challenging. But then there's that silly low forward PE ~10x.

The guide is ~$33.5B revenue, ~81% gross margin, $19.15 EPS. Consensus is already at ~$34.5B to $35.5B and ~$20. So what? The in-line result here is already a healthy beat over Micron's own guide.

The bar is the story versus the business. Biz is great. Consensus sits a billion-plus above the company guide, so meeting the Street means beating the guide. That is a high floor.

Gross margin is a swing line. At ~81% there is more room to disappoint than to surprise, and the HBM4 ramp pressures mix as the base die moves to TSMC.

Demand is real. HBM is sold out for 2026, DRAM stays tight through the back half, and the HBM wafer penalty keeps the whole market constrained. The bear case is the stock, not the company.

The supply response is underway. Samsung is adding ~50% HBM capacity this year, SK Hynix brought M15X online early, and Micron capex is climbing toward $20B. 2018 and 2021 are the reminder that "this time is different" cracks when supply catches up.

Position matters. SK Hynix holds the majority of HBM and most of NVIDIA's Rubin HBM4 sockets. Micron is the smallest of the three, which makes the underappreciated-upside thesis harder to extend from here.

This is my ninth memory cycle. Constructive on the cycle, skeptical on the trade.

[Ron DeSantis @RonDeSantis]

Dunedin was settled by Scots. The high school always had a Highlander band and bagpipes were a fixture. Would be a fitting stop.

[Goshawk Trades @GoshawkTrades]

Lloyd Blankfein (former CEO of Goldman Sachs) on something most people get backwards about risk management:

"you'd think a risk manager is always trying to repress people from taking risk."

"sometimes a good risk manager has to promote the idea that people take risk. because that's what you're there for."

"if you don't take risk, you don't move forward. there's no growth."

"the alternative to never taking any risk will give you the comfort of not losing money for yourself or anybody else, but you also won't make progress."

this is true inside Goldman Sachs and it's true in trading. after recovering a drawdown, the instinct can be to cut everything and take a break. sometimes the right risk management decision is the opposite, the system is working, the drawdown is normal, and pulling back is the actual mistake.

[The Drunk Republican @DrunkRepub]

They are forgiven. I mean really, who hasn’t started two world wars?

[DogeDesigner @cb_doge]

Legend

[jim iuorio @jimiuorio]

It’s fairly normal to be jealous of someone else’s wealth. Thinking you have a claim on that wealth is disguising. Letting the government leverage your jealousy into hatred and potentially policy changes makes you a tool.

[Ted Zhang @TedHZhang]

@MurrayHillGuy1 Paul Tudor Jones, the legendary trader, top right

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

SpaceX is the most overhyped IPO of the decade and it will end exactly the way every overhyped IPO ends. Facebook IPO’d at $38 and traded under that for 15 months. Uber IPO’d at $45 and is still below that adjusted seven years later for a while. WeWork tried at $47 billion and ended at zero. Robinhood IPO’d at $38, hit $85, then $7. Coinbase IPO’d at $381 and was at $40 two years later. Rivian IPO’d at a $100 billion valuation with no meaningful revenue and gave back 90%. Beyond Meat. Peloton. Lyft. DoorDash. Bird. Each one a “generational company” the day it priced.

Each one a wealth destruction event for retail within 18 months. The pattern is not a coincidence. Hype IPOs are designed to transfer wealth from the people buying the story to the people who built the story. The bankers get paid. The early employees get out. The VCs get a markup they can show their LPs. The retail investor gets the bag. SpaceX is a great company. That has nothing to do with whether it’s a great stock at IPO. Greatness was already priced in five funding rounds ago. You are not getting in early. You are buying the exit. The only IPO worth chasing is the one nobody is talking about. Those don’t exist anymore because every IPO is marketed like a movie release. So the answer is: don’t chase. Wait two years. Buy it down 70% when the lockup unwinds and the narrative breaks. Or don’t buy it at all and put the money somewhere the bankers haven’t already extracted the alpha. Hype is not an asset class. It’s a tax.

[TSDR Trading @TSDR_Trading]

Idk who she is but I know Paul Tudor Jones when I see him!

[Christopher Negrón 🇵🇷 @chrisnegron]

@fiago7 If only you could catch a Philadelphia Eagles home game during the NFL season in the fall. They have an actual bald eagle fly around the stadium during the national anthem

[John Cocozza @johncocozza]

One of Worst Ways to Wipeout at The Wedge in Newport Beach. Going over with the lip and having everything come down on you. IYKYK.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

What Sowell said is exactly right and needs to stop.

[Celeste Fremon @WitnessLA]

I remember body surfing the Wedge a zillion years ago as a young teenager. I only did it once, and I was
very lucky I didn’t drown. Irrationally, I still treasure that experience.

[Norgard @BrianNorgard]

The Wedge got nutty today and might be even gnarlier tomorrow. Who says it never gets heavy in Southern California?

Photos from Grant Ellis.