if not already clear, why MSTR repricing down and mNAV going down is such a big deal:
- raising STRC dilute MSTR's actual backing hence should reprice MSTR down
- the debt notes grant bond holders right to demand full cash at par 1 year in advance if its OTM, with the first one on 15 Sep 2027. With MSTR repricing down it will be nearly impossible for these notes to convert and Strategy needs $1b cash before 15 Sep 2027.
- with MSTR repricing down and hence mNAV, it becomes harder to issue / sell more equities to finance the entire thing
- and without cash STRC dividend cant sustain and hence cant raise more capital from STRC
So on one hand Strategy needs about $6b cash before 15 Sep 2027 + ongoing dividend commitment, on the other hand they're running out of options to raise more cash.
That said I think STRC is relatively safer to hold in the "backing" sense given it's priority claim over underlying assets above MSTR. But as seen with FTX, Mt Gov, etc, if it ever gets to that funds likely take couple years to return to users if Strategy defaults, not saying it will default but Saylor has to sell a lot of BTC as alternative way out before these key dates
"STRC is not supported purely by market confidence. It is also supported by Strategy’s balance sheet, including BTC holdings that can now be sold to maintain the peg"
If the same BTC/balance sheet is supporting both STRC and MSTR (and the upcoming notes), the current "btc per share" metric for MSTR makes no sense and should not be 0.0022, it should be diluted by STRC and the notes, at about 0.0017 per share.
mNAV should also come down significantly as MSTR reprice to its actual "backing"
To make things worse: mNAV is misleading. the website's claimed 0.0022 btc per share is also misleading. MSTR isn't directly redeemable for the underlying BTC so it makes no sense to use `btc/common shares` as a metric since the introduction of STRC.
In the event of liquidation, pref shares (STRC) + debt notes are prioritized above common shares (MSTR). So the real assets giving common shares value is btc value - debt - outstanding STRC, about 0.00175 BTC/share (~$115/MSTR share).
Another key date to watch: 15 sep 2027.
Many think that the notes maturity start from 2028 so the debt is non-issue for now but the notes grant bond holders one-time scheduled investor put on September 15, 2027, exactly one year earlier, at par in cash, with the rest following in the next 12 months.
"Holders of notes may require MicroStrategy to repurchase their notes on September 15, 2027 or upon the occurrence of certain events that constitute a fundamental change under the indenture governing the notes at a repurchase price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the notes to be repurchased, plus any accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, the date of repurchase."
(source: https://t.co/gpOVuUDaMr)
Realistically Saylor needs 8b by Jun 2027, I think...
MicroStrategy's position is deteriorating rapidly. In 4 months:
— USD reserves is down 60% to $900M
— Annual div obligations DOUBLED $835M → $1.65B
— Reserve coverage shrank 30 months → 7 months
— BTC sold: 32 BTC (first since 2022)
— STRC @ 11.5%, now trading below par at $97.11
Saylor is running out of cash and options
$MSTR still trades at 1.2mNAV which should provide some short-term relief, but with ~$137M in monthly div expense, it's gonna get uncomfortable
Try /remote-control from claude code directly instead, its a much better ux for using claude code without learning extra tools/command
1. start a claude code session in your project’s folder on your computer
2. run /remote-control
3. go to claude mobile app > top left menu > code
4. you’ll see your session there. Most interactive ux (eg approve plan) are supported
If managing multiple projects, just have multiple claude code sessions in each project and run /remote-control in each session, all remote controlled sessions work in parallel and you can easily manage from claude mobile app
My laptop screen looks pretty much like this all day now and same on my iPhone when I work (which could be anywhere now)
It's just tabs for my sites, all on a VPS, synced with my iPhone via @TermiusHQ (unaffiliated) and usually with Claude Code open to fix or build new things
Aren’t we glad Hyperliquid invested in a policy arm instead of onboarding degenerate gamblers to perps with paid growth like a lot of the timeline said they should
Excited to see everyone come together for this historic moment. AQAv2 brings the protocol-aligned stablecoin model that @Nativemarkets trail-blazed to USDC with @Coinbase and @Circle's commitment to Hyperliquid. The community no longer has to choose between liquidity and alignment.
Our industry will face adversity as we continue to grow. It gives me hope seeing titans of the industry come together to build for users and bring all of finance onchain.
Starting tomorrow at 12pm PT, Claude subscriptions will no longer cover usage on third-party tools like OpenClaw.
You can still use these tools with your Claude login via extra usage bundles (now available at a discount), or with a Claude API key.
@degennQuant@Seasui23@HyperliquidX Duit means money in malay. DuitNow is the most widely used local payment service. Most banks and ewallets integrate them. Its like blockchain for money but centralised.
Hyperliquid's open and permissionnless nature enables agentic trading where the same would not be realistic using CEX infrastructure.
@chrisling_dev from @nolimithodl & @try_supercexy built an open-source CLI tool you can use for AI agents trading on Hyperliquid.