Chris Paes

Clarity over noise. Cycles over headlines. Structure over emotion.

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

@pecuariadobem Da uma olhada nessa análise do ciclo do boi. Será que chega nos R$600?
https://t.co/4GGqDLzv2i

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

@citrini Another ag commodity bottoming out. Some solid Brazilian related equities also moving for those looking for some alpha.

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

I’ve been highlighting this for a while: multiple agriculture commodities are trying to bottom at the same time.

Sugar was lagging. Is it next?

Massive volume spike on $CANE chart. 👇

$SB #SugarFutures #Commodities #Ethanol #SMTO3

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

@TaviCosta Another one possibly bottoming.

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

I’ve been highlighting this for a while: multiple agriculture commodities are trying to bottom at the same time.

Sugar was lagging. Is it next?

Massive volume spike on $CANE chart. 👇

$SB #SugarFutures #Commodities #Ethanol #SMTO3

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

@DVSignals SMTO3?

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

I’ve been highlighting this for a while: multiple agriculture commodities are trying to bottom at the same time.

Sugar was lagging. Is it next?

Massive volume spike on $CANE chart. 👇

$SB #SugarFutures #Commodities #Ethanol #SMTO3

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

@caueconomy Exato, Cauê! Faz sentido. Esse cenário deve acelerar o turnaround nas agrícolas.
Detalhei o setup de bases simultâneas e posicionamento institucional mudando. Setup clássico de fim de ciclo baixista.
https://t.co/AsZk4Lu4M8

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

Várias commodities agrícolas formando base AO MESMO TEMPO. 🌾🚀🌽
Sentimento no agro ainda negativo, consenso pessimista... exatamente o setup clássico de fim de ciclo baixista.
Sinais surgindo antes da narrativa: posicionamento institucional já mudando.
Padrão que se repete: 1º Posicionamento → 2º Narrativa → 3º Notícia

Brasil no centro desse movimento?
Análise completa com gráficos e contexto: https://t.co/JFR9J84hsZ

#Agro #Agronegócio #Agricultura #soja #milho #algodao

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

Várias commodities agrícolas formando base AO MESMO TEMPO. 🌾🚀🌽
Sentimento no agro ainda negativo, consenso pessimista... exatamente o setup clássico de fim de ciclo baixista.
Sinais surgindo antes da narrativa: posicionamento institucional já mudando.
Padrão que se repete: 1º Posicionamento → 2º Narrativa → 3º Notícia

Brasil no centro desse movimento?
Análise completa com gráficos e contexto: https://t.co/JFR9J84hsZ

#Agro #Agronegócio #Agricultura #soja #milho #algodao

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

$AGRO
Com o preço da ureia, principal fertilizante nitrogenado usado na produção de soja e milho, acelerando no mercado global, a Adecoagro passa a capturar uma dinâmica diferente dentro da cadeia, após a aquisição da Profertil, maior produtora de ureia granular da América do Sul.

Após anos de consolidação em um range horizontal bem definido, o preço rompeu decisivamente para cima em um clássico rectangle breakout (Edwards & Magee style).
#Adecoagro #agro #agricultura #agronegocio

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

Quem produz carrega risco real. Esse diagnóstico já virou consenso.
E é justamente aí que vale a reflexão.

Quando uma leitura vira consenso, o mercado normalmente já começou a se ajustar antes disso ficar óbvio.

Porque esse tipo de desequilíbrio não é sustentável no tempo.
Pode ser que o fundo do ciclo já esteja ficando pra trás…
enquanto a narrativa ainda é de pressão.

Dá uma olhada nessa tese:
https://t.co/sUy0XNgQPp

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

@Hedgeye Several ag commodities are trying to bottom at the same time.

https://t.co/DYMRSOmTip

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

Cotton might be setting up for a major reversal.

After a 4-year downtrend, the market is now showing:

• Possible double bottom
• Break of the downtrend
• Strong daily expansion
• Commercial hedgers holding one of the largest net-long positions on record.
At the same time, several agricultural commodities are attempting to bottom.
Early signals of a new ag cycle?

$CT1! #CT_F #COTTON #CottonFutures #COT #Commodities #AgMarkets

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

Cotton might be setting up for a major reversal.

After a 4-year downtrend, the market is now showing:

• Possible double bottom
• Break of the downtrend
• Strong daily expansion
• Commercial hedgers holding one of the largest net-long positions on record.
At the same time, several agricultural commodities are attempting to bottom.
Early signals of a new ag cycle?

$CT1! #CT_F #COTTON #CottonFutures #COT #Commodities #AgMarkets

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

The market has continued to build constructively since my last update on #soybeans. Momentum expanding.

We’re starting to see the transition from
base building → early trend phase.

COT positioning strengthens the bullish narrative. Managed money / large specs have been adding net longs aggressively.

As long as the breakout structure holds, the path of least resistance points higher.

Cycles + structure + positioning align for further upside potential.
#Soybeans #Commodities #CBOT #COTReport #Agro $ZS #soja

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

After a brutal 2-year bear market in #soybeans,

we’ve now spent more than a year in a multi-month bottoming/accumulation process.

The market needed time. It took it.

We’re seeing a constructive early weekly cycle advance.

Currently week 4, with solid upside momentum.

Too early to declare a confirmed secular trend reversal.

But the character has changed.

If this structure continues to hold above key breakout levels, the path of least resistance begins to shift higher.

Cycles + structure + positioning.

Watching closely.

#Soybeans #Commodities #CBOT #COTReport #agmarket #agro #soja

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

@badcharts1 When cash flow and price structure align, trends tend to persist.

Petrobras’ 2025 numbers have been exceptional.

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

Petrobras ($PBR) might be the most misunderstood oil company in the world.

Most investors focus on:

• politics
• government control
• dividend uncertainty

But underneath that noise is one of the most profitable oil asset bases on the planet.

In 2025 Petrobras generated:

• R$110B net income
• R$200B operating cash flow
Even with weaker oil prices.

🧵👇 #Oil #EmergingMarkets

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

Embraer is a structural monopoly in a growing aviation niche.

And it sits at the intersection of four powerful trends:

• regional airline restructuring
• defense rearmament
• business aviation growth
• aviation services & aftermarket

That positioning may become far more important in the next decade of aviation.

Images: @embraer

#Aerospace #EMBJ3

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

Embraer ($ERJ) might be the most misread aerospace company in the world.

Most investors see it as:

• a small Brazilian aircraft manufacturer
• a cyclical play on aviation demand
• overshadowed by Airbus and Boeing

That last one is exactly backwards.
Airbus and Boeing don't compete where Embraer dominates.
🧵

[Chris Paes @chrispaes]

The balance sheet transformation deserves more attention.

2021: 3.9x net debt / EBITDA
2025: net cash position
At the same time:

• revenue grew 18% YoY
• the company bought back ~$1B in stock

Average debt maturity also jumped from 3.7 → 9.1 years in a single year.

This is what high level operational execution looks like.