chun kit

[chun kit @chunkit721]

https://t.co/y0TXX1DoFc

[chun kit @chunkit721]

@dylanleclair @SaveToNotion #thread

[chun kit @chunkit721]

@WifeyAlpha @SaveToNotion #thread

[chun kit @chunkit721]

@WifeyAlpha letsgo

[chun kit @chunkit721]

@PauloMacro @SaveToNotion #thread

[Paulo Macro @PauloMacro]

Framework 🧵

I have said 2023 is the Year of the Panics. We are currently in the upside equity panic engendered by a “not QE” Fed and fiscal stimulus running into the “next big thing” AI narrative.
1/16

[Paulo Macro @PauloMacro]

Time to repost this and get this as clearly on the record as I can. The weak yen is now the single biggest risk to equities, credit, EM, rates - everything - imho. Let’s start with this.
1/

[fuxiang @fuxiangPro]

OpenAI有两个研究员@kenneth0stanley 和@joelbot3000写了一本书叫：Why greatness can't be planned-the myth of the objectives 这本书写于2015年3月，两个月前才被翻译��中文《为什么伟大不能计划》这本书的思想是反直觉的，是对约定俗成目标式思维的颠覆，大模型时代，这本书的思想更加值得被看见。

[Josh Young @JoshYoung]

"In the past, a significant decline in oil prices has been a good indicator of an economic recession in the US"

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

Like I said before, the bear market in USTs is over. Market been mostly rangy since, which is what markets tend to do when they are exiting strong trends. As such you could safely trade the range or even start thinking about reversal. Since the end of the UST bear the range been drawn with recessionists’ blood. This last rip higher in yields is no different. But there are increasingly cracks appearing in the underlying data, just as the recession trade, badly timed, is getting a well deserved wash-out.

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

Employment is starting to cool off -

Paychex small business employment watch

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

This equity rallye is in it’s broadening participation phase and has yet to suck in the retail and Institutional usual suspects, so be very careful with the perma bear narratives. That said, it should see final acceleration with high latency models starting to give long term buy signals. Remember that it’s textbook and on brand for equities to melt-up into a recession.

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

Steve is absurdly under-followed

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

So is $NVDA in a bubble similar to https://t.co/1hzK4hr9Zy ? Not yet, but now is the moment of truth. It’s levitating at 3 sigma over 200SMA , which is 100% > 200SMA , but it did hit 350% > 200SMA during the infamous https://t.co/1hzK4hr9Zy bubble. Excluding that period, 60d fwd returns have ALWAYS been negative when it was 90% > 200SMA. HFs and multi-strats have all been balls deep in this thing for a while now, but contrary to widespread belief retail is the buyer of last resort of the past few days.

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

this is important

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

Cynic got this. One of mine is average spend at McDonalds and that’s been below $ 7 over that time.

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

I shared a major thread on Kitty, one that’s been keeping me busy crunching numbers for a while now. Below is opening and closing remarks. The rest will remain exclusive to Kitty community.

[chun kit @chunkit721]

@INArteCarloDoss @SaveToNotion #thread

[chun kit @chunkit721]

@RJRCapital @SaveToNotion #thread

[chun kit @chunkit721]

@WifeyAlpha @SaveToNotion #thread