$BTC 1W
Ideally something like this.
We would have tons of reversal signals & the down/sideways would be a time capitulation rather than a price capitulation.
It's either one scenario or the other:
1. A prolonged period of consolidation below $60K before expansion.
2. Quick deviation below $60K followed by expansion.
Both scenarios ultimately lead to the same outcome for $BTC. I don't see any other realistic possibilities playing out besides these two.
$BTC update:
Nice +12% recovery (vs 15% I expected).
Price was very overextended and we always see some kind of recovery to the EMAs.
That might have been it. But, if price can reclaim $64k next week, then it's very likely that price makes a new local high (current is $67.3k)
#BTC is not looking impulsive to the upside yet.
I have closed a few tentative long positions (even though it should go a little higher)
Market is likely "treading water" ahead of the FOMC meeting next Wednesday which may give renewed direction for $BTC and #Crypto.
The market has become inured to lies issued by Trump and so reaction is muted on anything he says, awaiting reality in order to inform decision making
#FOMC meeting on the 17th could offer some future easing hopes for #InterestRates and give some short term relief for #BTC & #Crypto
However, we have no signs of a major turn just yet and the mainstream view is that we will continue the downtrend (lower lows& highs) to hit $BTC low in October
This is ALSO entirely possible for #BTC
It would give us the "expected" $BTC low around October.
And it just goes to show - NOBODY KNOWS FOR SURE, emphasising that we MUST trade risk/reward without pinning our hopes on an unreliable "prediction" which would be akin to using a fortune teller to guide your trading!
$BTC
We’ve got a big stack of low leverage shorts sitting in the $64K–$66K range.
Keep in mind that during impulsive/corrective trends, liquidity can be front-run, so PA needs to confirm a push into the area.
This is my preferred EW count for #BTC from the ATH at the top, down to the current price, in the form of WXY correction (two abc corrections connected by an X wave)
This is very encouraging as it appears to be a correction from the $BTC high, meaning that a new ATH should come EVENTUALLY, BUT the ? is whether the Y wave is complete???
The outcome of the FOMC meeting in six days may give us some clarity
#Bitcoin – What's Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know
🚩TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:
Congratulations to everyone who followed the plan, both shorts from 120k and 80,500 are printing big and the entire framework from September 2025 has played out with perfection. So what do I expect next?
The Confirmed BlackRock Bottom (CBB):
The final Bitcoin bottom remains what I call the CONFIRMED BLACKROCK BOTTOM (CBB). The region where BlackRock launched its ETF in early 2024, roughly the 40-48k zone, remains my primary target. Bitcoin has not completed its bear market cycle. Stage 4 is finished. Stage 5 has officially begun. The biggest mistake investors are making right now and did in the recent weeks is believing that 60k was the bottom. It wasn't. It's the trapdoor into Stage 5. Every bear market creates a point where people convince themselves the worst is over, only to discover that the most painful phase has not even started yet.
The White Line Support at 60k:
One important short-term observation: the white line support is currently holding at the 60k region. This is a key technical level that has supported price for the entire move since the BlackRock ETF launch. For now, this support is holding, and as long as it does, there is a high probability we see a move back up to the 65-66k region before continuing lower. This is not me betting on this move, this is just an idea to keep in mind. Bitcoin never moves down in a straight line, and at some point the market needs a counter-move to clear liquidity in the other direction. This could very well happen right here at 60k toward 65-66k. The white line will break and thats what i am betting on, but for now it is holding, and that is what we need to respect short-term. None of this affects my trading. I keep holding my shorts from 120k and 80,500, and I do not adjust the position based on short-term fluctuation.
Stage 5 Has Officially Begun:
We are now officially entering Stage 5 of my 6-stage bear market framework, the phase in which the true capitulation should happen. But do not expect the capitulation to happen by next week, or even in the coming few weeks. These moves take time, and my time frame to see the final bottom remains September-October 2026. Expect violent moves below 60k, followed by sharp rallies back above it. Expect brutal short squeezes, painful long liquidations and heavy manipulation in both directions. This phase is designed to inflict maximum pain on both bulls and bears before the final bottom is established. The same people who refused to sell at 100k, 80k and 70k often end up selling at much lower prices because the emotional pressure eventually becomes unbearable.
The Stage 5 Catalyst:
Every major bear market has had a final catalyst. This is the stage where MSTR-type positions come under serious stress, where leveraged players get liquidated, and where large players or even an exchange can collapse. In the previous cycle it was FTX that caused Bitcoin to bottom out. This cycle will likely have its own event that accelerates the final capitulation and catches most participants completely off guard. These moves appear suddenly and destroy positions overnight. This is Stage 5
Summary:
The shorts from 115-125k remain fully open, the shorts from 79-82k remain fully open, Stage 5 is officially underway, and the most emotional phase of this bear market is only just beginning. You are now able to join DrProfitPremium for 7 DAYS FOR FREE! The invite links will be shared in the next 24-48h in the Channel linked below. Join the channel and dont miss out on the invite links: https://t.co/zkdgaR6H3c
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE BUT EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY.
This is my projection for the next 2 months (June-July):
A potential Three Taps Pattern is forming here imo; just be mindful when/if we reach $69k-$70k from here since a potential retest of the range lows could happen after.
And I'll look for +$80k after the possible retest.
This was an scenario I consistently mapped out 3-4 weeks ago so the possibility was always in the back of my mind - although the execution was bad.
From here we should directly go to the mid-range at $70k, then maybe drop back to range lows before finally pushing to range highs.
TWO OPPOSING SCENARIOS - Take your pick and which ever you choose, manage risk reward for profitable outcome!
Supporting further potential downside in a powerful C wave, the move from the #BTC ATH to $BTC $60k can be counted as a completed A-wave.
Weekly RSI is nowhere near the extremes normally associated with major bear market bottoms.
Geopolitical shocks often produce panic lows that get retraced.
A rally toward the 0.618-0.786 retracement zone ($85k-$95k) would be typical for a B-wave, then targeting $45k ish. in wave C
However.....
The biggest issue is the proposed target around $40k-$45k.
And for that to happen, #Bitcoin would likely need:
A genuine recession or credit event.
Sustained ETF outflows.
Major deterioration in liquidity.
A completed macro bull market.
At the moment, none of those are clearly established.
So my ALTERNATIVE IS.....
BTC finds support between $58k-$65k.
Strong rally develops toward $80k-$95k.
Pullback follows.
Eventually new highs above the previous ATH.
Your thoughts please.....
$BTC update:
My last setup was wrong, sorry - price broke through that $72k area due to US-Iran escalation news.
Bitcoin is at a key support now and the 4h50EMA is very overextended so we should get a quick recovery to $70k-$71k. That's what I'm trading at the moment.
If that recovery takes place and then price falls again, we must pay attention to this current support because if it breaks, then price will trade towards the range lows.
Still struggling to trade this BTC Price Action more than usual, but I'm sure I'll get back to my usual performance soon.
I held this short position for a total of 240 days.
240 days ago was $BTC all time high. I opened a short position exactly where I believed the ATH was going to be.
Then I simply followed my own trading method, waiting patiently for months for the pattern I trade to fully play out. I took partial profits after each drop and added those profits back in after each false rally.
My original entry was $124,600, my final average entry was around 91k.
This position is now closed.
That doesn't mean I think the bottom is in. It simply means I reached my goals and locked in the reward.