Chris Jackson

Senior Investigator Statistician at the MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge. Also at

[Chris Jackson @cjackstats]

Discount code https://t.co/i5prWWokNc

[Chris Jackson @cjackstats]

Some belated promotion for a new book "Value of Information for Healthcare Decision Making". https://t.co/r58NzyTF0I

[Chris Jackson @cjackstats]

Written by a large bunch of great people, edited by Anna Heath, @NataliaKunst and me, and comes with an R package to use the methods at https://t.co/WxHIUVUY8C

[Chris Jackson @cjackstats]

...Nearly forgot to add, I'm doing a talk about the survextrap package next week at RSS Northern Ireland https://t.co/AWBV21PDr1 . Teams link https://t.co/fh3BAc3oPb

[Chris Jackson @cjackstats]

The package should also be useful as an easy way to fit a flexible Bayesian survival model in general, even if you don't need extrapolation. It is inspired a lot by rstanarm , and tweaks the model in https://t.co/OyaF2Orlfi in various ways to facilitate extrapolation.

[Chris Jackson @cjackstats]

Hoping people will try it and use it. Please feed back, in particular if you would like to use it, but something about it looks too hard! The idea is to make principled methods easily accessible.

[Chris Jackson @cjackstats]

You can (a) build in multiple data sources (e.g. trial, registry, population, elicited...) in a general format (b) fit models with a single command, (c) output results with a single command, in a friendly tidy format.

[Chris Jackson @cjackstats]

Announcing a new paper "survextrap: a package for flexible and transparent survival extrapolation" https://t.co/gpQCutCHJ2 . Proud of this, as I've been interested in the problem for many years, but only recently had time to get stuck into a solution. Tweet summary below.

[Chris Jackson @cjackstats]

So the model output is a posterior which says what your data says, and represents uncertainty properly if there is no long-term data.

[Chris Jackson @cjackstats]

The paper introduces an R package https://t.co/joidaieqL1 that does all this. It uses a flexible Bayesian model, fitted with https://t.co/Hi6venW62F. The "hazard" of death is allowed to vary over time using a spline, and can vary smoothly outside the data.

[Chris Jackson @cjackstats]

Ideal tool would be able to (1) combine several data sources (2) fit it all well (3) acknowledge uncertainty where data are weak. And not forgetting: (4) be easy to use!

[Chris Jackson @cjackstats]

Health policy decisions often involve "extrapolating" short term data from trials. To do this properly, we have to build in long term information. There's been lots of methods papers on the topic, but no ideal tool.

[Chris Jackson @cjackstats]

Learn Bayesian statistics with us, wherever in the world you are!

[MRC Biostatistics Unit @MRC_BSU]

Our short course on Bayesian Statistics introduces Bayesian statistical methods and provides skills for designing, assessing and interpreting Bayesian analyses.

17 Nov - 1 Dec, online.

Register 👇
https://t.co/xNXSGFyNhi

@rjbgoudie @apresanis @cjackstats

[RJB Goudie @rjbgoudie]

3yr postdoc job opportunity @MRC_BSU @Cambridge_Uni in Bayesian methodology

Potential topics/directions: computational methods for data integration/Markov melding; methodology for prior specification; methods for multi-stream EHR data

Closes 6 Nov
https://t.co/vBl96y0REP

[Chris Jackson @cjackstats]

@CatchTwentyToo Great - thanks for your appreciation!

[Chris Jackson @cjackstats]

(A department neighbouring the one that I work in, I meant to say)

[Chris Jackson @cjackstats]

If you like multistate / survival modelling you may be interested in this position https://t.co/QLZSd5xECX collaborating with some good people in a neighbouring department.

[Chris Jackson @cjackstats]

Not that I think this was a highlight of #RSS2023Conf, but slides from my talk about survival extrapolation are linked from https://t.co/IiKPRBreoJ

[Chris Jackson @cjackstats]

Coming to the end of an enjoyable three days of #RSS2023Conf . Too much good science and people to pick highlights, just generally feeling that stats and statisticians are alright!