Elizabeth Hudson

Founder @ Ambitious Bio. fmr @yale; industrial robotics @symbotic; Advisory Board @centerforastro; Intel @usnavy

[Elizabeth Hudson @ClarkPolner]

@EricTopol Can’t read beyond the paywall / did they collect data on / control for behavioral changes / selection effects? (Still interesting but distinct mechanism.)

[Elizabeth Hudson @ClarkPolner]

Right! But: The industry is famously uninvestible (taken as a whole; IRR < cost of capital) today with all those clear mechanisms PLUS the markets that obesity created. When those obesity driven indications go away, the opportunity set necessarily gets smaller.
(All you’re left with are opportunities to go after things we understand mechanistically in a reduced number of indications.)

Unless you start opening up more. But that’s big risk. Which is why it’s interesting to think about whether a threat makes people more risk on, or more risk off.

[Elizabeth Hudson @ClarkPolner]

@cremieuxrecueil Or if it simultaneously nukes behaviors that drive cancer through some other mechanism? (though - is there anything that drives the risk of cancer so significantly that cessation gives you a drop this fast?)

[Elizabeth Hudson @ClarkPolner]

@andy_d_lee @nealkhosla Right, but does does this experience encourage more people to bet on things outside the normal narrowly tailored indication - move to more root causes - or do they take temporary shelter in the least risky, looking very traditional indication spaces

[Elizabeth Hudson @ClarkPolner]

@hassankhan Interesting

[Elizabeth Hudson @ClarkPolner]

Yes! But aging typically didn’t get attention as an indication in and of itself and little investment. So do people respond to the metabolic example by looking to more root causes like this (higher risk; higher reward) or by investing in more late stage de risked stuff for more narrowly scoped well understood things and if so / if most people do this / what’s the sector level effect in the next 2 / 5 / 10 years

[Elizabeth Hudson @ClarkPolner]

Absolutely. I meant // what are the aftershocks of devaluing the pipeline of products destined for diseases that will shrink dramatically in incidence? These were underwritten with the assumption that X people needed them and now it will be many many fewer. Which ok, write them off - but if you have to write off a ton, all at once, across an industry.

[Elizabeth Hudson @ClarkPolner]

@arjunrajlab @anshulkundaje @KoswasCrypto Makes sense. What’s a better way to balance taking into account the ability to deliver with making it possible for new folks to break in?

[Crémieux @cremieuxrecueil]

One of the issues using animals to test lifespan extension drugs is that, by using short-lived strains, you might just end up correcting what makes them short-lived.

If you test in long-lived (e.g., 950 days for a rat) animals, most lifespan extension benefits aren't supported.

[Elizabeth Hudson @ClarkPolner]

How much sector value is underwritten by the assumption obesity-driven diseases persist? If the value shrinks bc the market disappears, do people respond by making bigger more risky more interesting bets … or?

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Eli Lilly says its experimental obesity drug cut sleep apnea severity by 60.6% in a Phase 3 trial.

[Elizabeth Hudson @ClarkPolner]

@arjunrajlab Isn’t the point that you can say to the trainee “if you have a BETTER idea than someone else, it will have a shot” and you can break in and get a chance to demonstrate that you can deliver value over and over?

[Matt Spence @matthewswspence]

What I find most notable about this chart is that at its peak the US nuclear buildout was actually faster than the current Chinese one. If we could do that 50+ years ago we should be able to do much better today.

[Elizabeth Hudson @ClarkPolner]

Each one was somebody’s baby

[alex kershaw @kershaw_alex]

Omaha is now a death zone, as seen from above. Men pinned down along five and a half miles of hell. See more at https://t.co/EEg00P0EnE

[Elizabeth Hudson @ClarkPolner]

This is a good point about the potential of the market into which you’re building… but could that be addressed by accelerators that think a little differently? Should the community that they provide be thinking more about how to expand and redefine a market than how to sell into it?

[DOW Rapid Response @DOWResponse]

May we live worthy of their sacrifice.

[Elizabeth Hudson @ClarkPolner]

Once people realize that we don’t have data to describe biology like we have data to describe language there will be a lot of VERY MOTIVATED people looking to generate those data before it’s too late.

[Shyam Sankar @ssankar]

Researchers at leading labs have started smoking.
Their logic: AGI will cure cancer before it kills them.

Are you lighting a cigarette because you're that confident the models will cure cancer in time?

No? not AGI-pilled...

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

Today, we remember the heroes of D-Day - June 6, 1944.

Through extraordinary courage and sacrifice, American troops stormed the beaches of Normandy, defeated tyranny, and helped secure freedom for generations to come.

Their legacy lives on. America remains forever grateful. 🇺🇸

[Elizabeth Hudson @ClarkPolner]

"This concept that - searching the semantic web - there's enough variance to really understand what happens when you swallow a pill, it transits the gut, it engages a receptor and makes someone feel better or die less...that's I don't think a capability of these current models....these current models and the current data they're trained on aren't going to all of a sudden elaborate new targets that will cure cancer." YES

"...and those datasets are somewhere in the industry with lab notebooks and clinical data..." NO.

The lab notebooks are with a CRO. The machine / protocol data were tossed. The data describing the input material (unless it was a well known cell line) were probably never known, beyond the basics ("liver, healthy").

This is like a sales org saying "the information is in Salesforce" except no; the most important deals were done by text, and there's no record in there of them at all.

[BridgeBio Pharma @BridgeBioPharma]

AI can't compress a clinical trial. It can't generate the data we don't have yet. Our CEO Neil Kumar pushed back on the AI hype with @bloomberg at #MIGlobal with @MilkenInstitute – not because the tools aren't valuable, but because the years still take years.

[Elizabeth Hudson @ClarkPolner]

@p_maverick_b yes. love.