Clay

#Bitcoin
Financial freedom, the ability to live life on your own terms. Go for it!

[Brivael Le Pogam @brivael]

My post about France went viral. Thousands of likes. Many Americans told me: "Democrats aren't socialists. America will never be France." I want to answer that seriously, step by step.

Start with a simple observation. Look at what has gotten cheaper in America over the last 25 years: TVs, phones, software, clothes, toys. Now look at what has exploded: college tuition, healthcare, childcare, housing.

What separates the two lists? The first lives in competitive markets. The second is exactly where government is most involved: subsidies, mandates, licensing, zoning, regulation.

College. Washington lends students almost unlimited money. Universities know the money will always come, so they raise tuition and hire more administrators. The student pays the bill for twenty years. More government money, higher prices.

Housing. Why can't a nurse buy a home in the city where she works? Not because of capitalism. Because of zoning laws, permits, environmental reviews, years of procedure to build a single building. The most expensive places to live in America are the places where it's hardest to build. When building is nearly illegal, prices explode.

Healthcare. The patient almost never sees the price. A third party pays, regulations limit who can compete, and costs climb year after year with no one able to say no.

So here is the trap. The problems you suffer from are not the failure of free markets. They are the places where the market has already been replaced by the state. And the solution you're being offered is more of the same.

That's the Trojan horse. It always works the same way. A real problem. A generous-sounding promise. A program that makes things worse. Then the failure of that program becomes the argument for the next one. People who lived under communism in Poland learned to recognize the lie and the mask the lie wears. The lie never presents itself as a lie. It presents itself as compassion.

In France we are at the end of that road. Debt we can never repay. Young people who can't afford a home. Our best people leaving. And every few years our cities burn. Nobody voted for this. They voted for one more generous promise, fifty years in a row.

If you're a Republican, share this with the Democrat in your life. Not to win an argument. To start a conversation.

If you're a Democrat, I'm not asking you to switch teams. I'm asking you to look at the pattern. Wherever the state took over, life became unaffordable. Don't fix the failures of government with more government.

Stay American. Ask for less state, not more.

[Brivael Le Pogam @brivael]

I’m French. I want to talk to Americans who are about to vote Democrat. Not to insult you. To warn you.

I come from your future.

In France we did everything your progressive politicians promise. Free healthcare, free college, generous welfare, strong unions, heavy regulation, high taxes on the rich, a state that takes care of everything. Public spending close to 57% of GDP, one of the highest on the planet. On paper, it’s the dream.

Here’s what it looks like from the inside. France hasn’t passed a balanced budget since 1974. Our debt is above 3,300 billion euros. Interest on that debt is becoming one of the biggest items in the national budget. Our hospitals are collapsing despite record funding. Our schools rank lower every year. Young people with degrees can’t afford an apartment in the city they were born in. Our best engineers leave for London, Zurich and San Francisco. And the rich you wanted to tax? They left too, and took the jobs with them.

The promise was protection. The result is stagnation.

The worst part is that nobody in France voted for decline. Every single step sounded generous, compassionate, reasonable. One more program. One more regulation. One more tax to fund it. Each step alone makes sense. Fifty years of them, and you wake up in a country that can no longer build a nuclear plant on time or keep its streets safe.

I love America because it’s the one place on earth where people still believe they can build something from nothing. I came to Silicon Valley as a self-taught kid and it changed my life. That spirit is the most precious thing your country has.

Before you vote, ask yourself one question: is the program you’re voting for making America more like America, or more like France?

Trust me. You don’t want to be France.

[Clay @clayparrilla]

@NYCMayor This is so misleading! Lies damn lies and statistics.

[Timothy Peterson @nsquaredvalue]

Most is in private equity. It is not liquid and often not even divisible. If I have a house worth 1 million, and gov't decides to tax millionaire homeowners, I can't sell half a bedroom.

[Rothmus 🏴 @Rothmus]

Zimbabwe destroyed itself the day it destroyed the people who produce.

Confiscating 4,500 productive commercial farms from the people who actually knew how to run them and handing them to political allies with zero farming experience is precisely how you turn Africa’s breadbasket into a country that can’t feed itself and ends up printing 100 trillion dollar notes that won’t even cover a bus fare.

Mugabe did exactly that in 2000. >commercial farmland lost 3/4 of its value in a single year
>food production dropped 60% over the next decade
>nearly 700 companies that depended on farm exports and food processing shut down within 2 years
>the economy shrank more than 6% a year and average incomes fell by more than half

“Just give poor people money, bro!”

And so they did with the tax base gone!

>printed money to fill the hole
>prices were doubling every 24 hours by late 2008
>official inflation numbers stopped being published and an independent economist calculated monthly inflation at 79.6 billion %.

Communism is grand.

[X Freeze @XFreeze]

SpaceX is solving the biggest bottleneck in spaceflight

The COST

For decades, the average launch cost to low Earth orbit was around $18,500 per kg

Falcon 9 cut that to about $2,700 per kg - roughly an 85% reduction

Falcon Heavy pushed it closer to $1,400 per kg - roughly a 92% reduction

Now Starship is targeting a 99%+ cost reduction through full and rapid reusability

That is the real breakthrough

Every booster landing, every reflown rocket, every faster turnaround is directly attacking the economics of space

Lower cost per kg means more satellites, bigger payloads, orbital manufacturing, Moon missions, Mars missions, space stations, and eventually space-based industry

SpaceX is not just building rockets
It is making space usable at scale

[TMK @themagaking]

Elon Musk's companies employ roughly 170,000 people.

AOC drove Amazon out of New York, killing 40,000 jobs.

One creates. The other destroys.

They are not the same.

[GURGAVIN @gurgavin]

MOST PEOPLE HAVE NO IDEA HOW GOOD OF AN INVESTOR GOOGLE IS

6% OF SPACEX
14% OF ANTHROPIC
75% OF WAYMO

$900M INTO SPACEX IN 2015 →
NOW WORTH $115B

$13B INTO ANTHROPIC → NOW WORTH $140B

WAYMO JUST RAISED $16B AT A $126B VALUATION → GOOGLE’S STAKE WORTH ~$95B.

THOSE THREE BETS ALONE ARE WORTH OVER $350B AND THEY HAVE 100’S MORE SMALLER ONES $GOOGL

[Alice Smith @TheAliceSmith]

Top quality work by @BurnieSendersX

[OutspokenSamantha @Outspoken_Sam]

Elon Musk is not stealing from you.

Gavin Newsom is stealing from you.
Karen Bass is stealing from you.
Tim Walz is stealing from you.
Elizabeth Warren is stealing from you.
AOC is stealing from you.

Becoming wealthy does not make you evil.

The people who take from you, promising to fix problems and then enriching themselves while trying to get you to hate those they're taking the money from... are evil.

[The Boring Company @boringcompany]

Tunneling in 3 geologies in 3 cities - Las Vegas clay/caliche, Nashville limestone, and Bastrop sandy clay

[Jaylene🐰 @playmatejaylene]

The first trillionaire in human history

- Elon Musk
- Born in South Africa
- Bullied relentlessly as a kid
- Immigrated to North America
- Arrived with a backpack and a dream
- Built Zip2 with his brother
- Sold it 4 years later for $300 million
- Co-founded PayPal with the profits
- Revolutionised digital payments
- Sold PayPal to eBay for $1.5 billion
- Bet everything on Tesla and SpaceX
- Got mocked for electric cars
- Got laughed at for reusable rockets
- Nearly went bankrupt in 2008
- Kept building anyway
- Turned Tesla into the world’s most valuable automaker
- Made EVs mainstream and transformed the automotive industry
- Made reusable rockets a reality
- Reduced the cost of reaching space by 95%
- Sparked the modern commercial space race
- Built Starlink and connected millions around the world to high-speed internet
- Turned SpaceX into the most valuable private company in history
- Bought Twitter for $44 billion
- The world said he overpaid
- He was called reckless, stupid & crazy
- Advertisers fled, media declared it dead
- Critics called it the worst acquisition in tech history
- Renamed it 𝕏
- Rebuilt the platform anyway
- Turned it into one of the most influential platforms on Earth
- Launched xAI and accelerated the global AI race
- Sent astronauts to space
- Is trying to get humans to mars
- Created millions of jobs
- Generated hundreds of billions in value
- Inspired an entire generation of builders

Before:
- Failed repeatedly
- Worked insane hours
- Slept in factories and offices
- Got bullied, laughed at and mocked
- Constantly told “it’s impossible”
- Kept building anyway
- Made it possible

Today:
- Richest person on Earth
- First trillionaire in human history
- Largest IPO in history $1.77 trillion

Most people quit when the world laughs at them.

Elon Musk built the future instead.

Love him or hate him…

Nobody has changed more industries in a single lifetime.

Payments. Cars. Energy. Space. Social Media. Communications. AI.

History won’t remember the people who said it couldn’t be done.

It will remember the people who did it anyway.

Congratulations Elon.
The first trillionaire. 🚀

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

SpaceX starts trading this Friday.

Here's what history says happens next.

This is the post-IPO performance of every major tech listing of the last decade. Every name you know. Every name you use.

Look at the last column: maximum drawdown in year one.

– Facebook: -54%
– Snap: -56%
– Uber: -68%
– Pinterest: -70%
– Lyft: -79%
– Rivian: -88%
– Robinhood: -90%

Median first-year drawdown across the entire list: -54%.
Average: -55%.

Not the speculative junk. The whole class. Including the eventual winners.

Zoom eventually rose 142% in year one. It still drew down 40% along the way. Palantir gained 153%. It still fell 53% at one point. CrowdStrike, Datadog, MongoDB. All ended year one higher. All put their holders through a 40 to 67% drawdown first.

There has not been a single major tech IPO in a decade that didn't hand you a brutal drawdown in the first twelve months. Not one.

Now SpaceX joins the list, at the richest valuation in IPO history.

You don't have to buy it today.

The IPO is the seller's moment, not the buyer's.

Wait for the base.

[AK Investings @AKinvestings]

WHY wont I be buying the $SpaceX IPO?

$AMZN IPO - $450M valuation (3x revenue)
$GOOGL IPO - $23B valuation (7x revenue)
$META IPO - $104B valuation (20x revenue, immediately sold off ~50%)

$SPCX (SpaceX) IPO ~ $1.75 Trillion valuation (94x revenue)

I'll wait for a discount.

[-MEGA- @_MEGA_760]

@spikeroche @NYCMayor

[Aaron Burnett @aaronburnett]

There has been a lot of hand wringing on the appropriate valuation of SpaceX. Some large institutions believe SpaceX can only be valued at half what the market seems to be willing to pay for it. Others are claiming it has 15X appreciation ahead of it.

Almost all of this difference of opinion comes down to how comfortable you are modeling beyond 2030 and what valuation method you use.

2030 valuation using a traditional Gordan DCF produces a very different result than a 2040 EV/EBITDA Multiple. Both have pros and cons. Most analysts don’t really discuss this and lead with a headline number.

We are very comfortable modeling out to 2040, as large portions of what SpaceX is proposing is real world infrastructure, which provides modelable physics constraints to anchor against.

The analysis we released today explores this in-depth, its open to the public all the way through IPO. I highly encourage you check it out prior to then.
https://t.co/McShCl78uo

We’ve run 5,000 monte carlo runs across 500 variables (real number, even though it sounds fake) and three valuation methods.

This video is of a 3D cloud chart showing every simulation outcome expected in valuation output across two of the most impactful variables to the model when using an EV/EBITDA multiple from 2026 to 2040.

The horizontal axis is the steepness of the orbital data center demand S-curve.

The vertical axis is the rate at which chip compute efficiency becomes cheaper.

Each of the 5,000 dots is one simulated future; green dots are the ones where SpaceX's 2040 value clears the $1.77T IPO line, over time.

Under EV/EBITDA valuation through 2040, 96% of our simulated futures clear the expected IPO price once the bell rings Friday.

We aren’t publishing this publicly to tell investors what the stock is worth, we’re publishing this to help investors understand the world of outcomes, what the fundamentals suggest through 2040, and what frankly most analysis simply won’t share.

SpaceX is a generational company working on long term infrastructure harnessing a domain no one has been able to tap in so far: space.

It deserves doing the work as an investor. because this in not financial advice.

The cleanest way to hold SpaceX is a bond stapled to a call option (AI-Compute); Starlink is the bond, the near term SatCom annuity that funds the next flywheel.

Understand the world of outcomes and take your position accordingly.

Comparables and P/E won't take you far enough.

[Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani @NYCMayor]

This morning we are introducing COGE — the Commission on Government Efficiency.

This Commission will find ways for our city to work smarter, faster, and more effectively for working people. 

New Yorkers deserve a city government as careful with their money as they are.

[Nick shirley @nickshirleyy]

CBS News said there was no evidence of fraud.

The NYT said the Somali community was being targeted

CNN said there was "little evidence."

Tim Walz said it was “white supremacy” to expose fraud

Today: $90M busted and 15 charged.

IT WAS ALL FRAUD AND THEY KNEW.

[GratefulSteve @GratefulSteve4]

@EricLDaugh

[EyesWideOpen @jmon131032471]

@NYCMayor