Invest in equities, the new math says up to 4.7%. 4.3% feels like the safe lower bound now. Use guardrails. Search for it. Bill Bengen, creator of the original 4% rule, updated his calculations to a 4.7% initial safe withdrawal rate. This shift allows a retiree with a $1 million portfolio to withdraw $47,000in year one (a $7,000 increase). Conversely, a 4.2% rate is often cited as the minimum floor for extended or early retirements
For Phase 1 (200 MW), the "adjacent generation" language means a planned direct interconnect to the
Vistra/Constellation plants. But:
- No PPA with Vistra or Calpine/Constellation has been publicly disclosed by either party
- On the May 18 call, Charlie Nelson described the PPA as "progressing concurrently" and "likely to execute first" — meaning it is in negotiation but not signed
- No ERCOT large-load interconnection application from NUAI/TCDC was found in public records — this was listed as a near-term milestone, meaning it likely hasn't been filed yet, or they don't need it?
The Water Supply: Rural Water District #11
Cooling a 1.6 GW AI data center requires an amount of water, making local utility securement just as critical as power.
You were spot-on regarding the infrastructure hurdles. The official agenda for the April 21, 2026 meeting literally contains this line as Item #3:
"DISCUSSION WITH RURAL WATER DISTRICT #11, PITTSBURG COUNTY, ABOUT WATER SUPPLY FOR PROJECT EMERALDCO."
The Water Supply: Rural Water District #11
Cooling a 1.6 GW AI data center requires an amount of water, making local utility securement just as critical as power.
You were spot-on regarding the infrastructure hurdles. The official agenda for the April 21, 2026 meeting literally contains this line as Item #3:
"DISCUSSION WITH RURAL WATER DISTRICT #11, PITTSBURG COUNTY, ABOUT WATER SUPPLY FOR PROJECT EMERALDCO."
That wording differs from the press release; specifically, the second bullet is material: NVDA press release: "...collaborate on deployment of NVIDIA accelerated compute in DSX AI factories to expand access to AI-native, startup and enterprise customers."
• IREN deck: "...collaborate on deployment of NVIDIA DGX environments and DSX AI factory reference architecture."
• Delta: The press release framed bullet 2 around customer access (who gets served — AI-natives/startups/enterprises). The IREN deck reframes bullet 2 around what is actually being built — DGX environments + DSX AI factory reference architecture.
Data shows clear hiring acceleration into April: active postings rose from 16 in January to 28 in February, 37 in March, and 48 in April. The biggest recent signal is Sweetwater, where 9 of 16 active roles were posted in April, including 6 in the final week — mostly HV/electrical, mechanical construction, maintenance, operations, and site-readiness roles.
Childress looks more mature and operational, with 27 active postings across data-center technicians, operations leads, HVAC maintenance, LOTO electrical/mechanical, network/security, warehouse, facilities, and construction support. Sweetwater looks earlier but is accelerating fast, with a job mix that suggests movement from heavy construction toward commissioning and operations readiness.
Overall, the hiring pattern is directionally bullish. IREN appears to be spending against real physical execution, with Childress already looking operationally mature and Sweetwater showing a sharp late-April ramp.
really interesting framework. How solid do you think the $3.50/hr number is for B300s at Childress, and what kind of customer do you see paying that? Also curious how much of the 400 MW you think IREN can realistically finance and bring online without getting too ugly on dilution or bridge capital.Really