clockwork · partners

interested in time, energy, and #bitcoin

[clockwork · partners @clockwork_parts]

@PrestonPysh @hcburger1 @ChartsBtc https://t.co/ZDrKj2EKh8

[clockwork · partners @clockwork_parts]

1. the average age of the stock of bitcoin has grown in proportion to the age of the bitcoin network. this suggests using a relative lookback period rather than a fixed (absolute) period.

[clockwork · partners @clockwork_parts]

@RaoulGMI @BittelJulien for charts like gmi chart 2, taking bitcoin's sixth root is convenient:
https://t.co/BXQfYIaWX3

[clockwork · partners @clockwork_parts]

to visualize bitcoin's cyclicality alongside other data, back out its power-law growth.

a year-over-year example (date, bitcoin network age, price):
2021-11-21, 12.9 yr, $59.0k
2022-11-20, 13.9 yr, $16.2k
($16.2k / $59.0k)^(1/6) * (12.9yr / 13.9yr) = 0.75 YoY

and chart:

[clockwork · partners @clockwork_parts]

to visualize bitcoin's cyclicality alongside other data, back out its power-law growth.

a year-over-year example (date, bitcoin network age, price):
2021-11-21, 12.9 yr, $59.0k
2022-11-20, 13.9 yr, $16.2k
($16.2k / $59.0k)^(1/6) * (12.9yr / 13.9yr) = 0.75 YoY

and chart:

[clockwork · partners @clockwork_parts]

3. the above suggest considering the age of the bitcoin network as multiplicative rather than additive, i.e. using a logarithmic axis. the gray line illustrates power-law growth using round-number parameter values.

[clockwork · partners @clockwork_parts]

@_Checkmatey_ ty. interesting that hodling seems to set the relative timescale. will the average coin age continue to increase in proportion to the network age? who knows, but if so, this framing may hold up.

[clockwork · partners @clockwork_parts]

1. the average age of the stock of bitcoin has grown in proportion to the age of the bitcoin network. this suggests using a relative lookback period rather than a fixed (absolute) period.

[clockwork · partners @clockwork_parts]

9. feedback is welcome. s/o @coinmetrics (on-chain and price data) and @zorinaq (historical price data).

cc @dhruvbansal (hodl waves), @hcburger1 (power-law price), @ercwl (network age), @dylanleclair (realized price trends), @_Checkmatey_ (on-chain cycles)

[clockwork · partners @clockwork_parts]

8. these charts are intended to frame bitcoin's growth rather than to support making precise predictions. let's see how well this approach frames bitcoin's growth over the next few years. see detailed descriptions at https://t.co/y8V6R4wmEs

[clockwork · partners @clockwork_parts]

@giacomozucco @dergigi @LynAldenContact @BTCSchellingPt @resistancemoney @orionwl @mempool left plot: time increases from left to right, block height increases from bottom to top. right plot: time cycles clockwise, price increases from center radially outward.

[clockwork · partners @clockwork_parts]

@takenstheorem @aleattorium @ercwl @DZack23 @therationalroot @100trillionUSD indeed, our very first tweet was in reply to @takenstheorem: https://t.co/x0ykq5ZACP

[clockwork · partners @clockwork_parts]

@takenstheorem @coinmetrics @nic_carter @luyongxu great plot! we've been using a four-year period to match the (nominal) subsidy halving period: https://t.co/y8V6R4edqk

[clockwork · partners @clockwork_parts]

@TuurDemeester a visualization along those lines, though limited to US post WWII. description at https://t.co/rFxwRzEwGU

[clockwork · partners @clockwork_parts]

@therationalroot @Pladizow @Techconcatalina @nayibbukele appreciate the acknowledgment and glad that this perspective is inspiring!

[clockwork · partners @clockwork_parts]

@Pladizow @therationalroot @Techconcatalina @nayibbukele seems to be inspired by the one we post at: https://t.co/y8V6R4edqk

[clockwork · partners @clockwork_parts]

@therationalroot looks good! minor suggestion: rotate it 90 deg so that it has the same orientation as this one:
https://t.co/1me57jY7Ne

[clockwork · partners @clockwork_parts]

@saifedean one can highlight the (nominal) subsidy halving period by using polar coordinates:

[clockwork · partners @clockwork_parts]

@wordspeakingman @saifedean 2020-03-11 end of day (UTC) price: $7.94k
2020-03-12 end of day (UTC) price: $4.96k
one dot per day. radius indicates log(price/$1). see description at https://t.co/y8V6R4edqk