Cloclo

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@TWTThisIsNow @patfrank830 @histoireclimat @dxchapman @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene What I don't understand is how a person who have done good science in the past can err with curve fitting and makes such "risky" claims.

She still advertises it on its university bio: "one of the papers was predicting the modern Grand Solar Minimum (2020-2053)."

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@TWTThisIsNow @patfrank830 @histoireclimat @dxchapman @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene Too bad that cycle 25 was stronger than the two previous cycles…

She used PCA… on 3 cycles.🤡

"By applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to the low-resolution full disk magnetograms captured in cycles 21–23 by the Wilcox Solar Observatory,"

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@TWTThisIsNow @patfrank830 @histoireclimat @dxchapman @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene Soon also did a prediction in 2005 (or the Arctic temperature). But as he is still doing he used HS93 for the TSI.

Not a mathematical fit, but even using the outdated denier-friendly TSI, it failed miserably.

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@TWTThisIsNow @patfrank830 @histoireclimat @dxchapman @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene Lüdecke in 2017, another crank but from Germany, also did one. A bit more complex (3 "cycles", but it failed miserably too.

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@TWTThisIsNow @patfrank830 @histoireclimat @dxchapman @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene Now he agrees that he did a mistake; but he keeps calling names anybody disagreeing with him (wining "but it is not an ad hominem because I didn't named a person".

Anyway, nobody is listening seriously to this guy for a long time already.

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@patfrank830 @TWTThisIsNow @histoireclimat @dxchapman @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene You are unable to answer a direct question.

You are a troll.

Bye, asshole.

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@TWTThisIsNow @patfrank830 @histoireclimat @dxchapman @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene Yes, they always do curve fitting. So they believe actual models are curve fitting too.

Here is Francois Gervais doing the same: a linear trend (that he doesn't explain) and a 60-year "cycle".

It also completely failed. (He then used a 65-year cycle, and then a 70-year cycle)

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@patfrank830 @TWTThisIsNow @histoireclimat @dxchapman @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene Do you agree that your claim that there was one data source was wrong?

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@patfrank830 @TWTThisIsNow @histoireclimat @dxchapman @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene I reject your argument that there is 1 data source.

You committed ad hominem in answer. Yet you deny it on semantics.

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@patfrank830 @histoireclimat @dxchapman @TWTThisIsNow @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene Maybe you should ask yourself how a prediction made 40 years ago is still accurate if it was so meritless.

Yet, all climate deniers prediction (as meritless from your point of view) failed after max 2 years.

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@patfrank830 @histoireclimat @dxchapman @TWTThisIsNow @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene 😂

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@patfrank830 @TWTThisIsNow @histoireclimat @dxchapman @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene Do you agree that there was one single data source was wrong?

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@patfrank830 @TWTThisIsNow @histoireclimat @dxchapman @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene You try semantics now. 🤡 We are not fooled by it, we clearly understood the accusation and the ad hominem.

I hope the Heartland Institute pays to the message and not to the reach. (See I didn't name anybody, either!)

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@patfrank830 @histoireclimat @dxchapman @TWTThisIsNow @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene Good, 40 years of prediction, by Exxon's scientists.

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@patfrank830 @histoireclimat @dxchapman @TWTThisIsNow @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene Radiation physics clearly is part of any theory of climate. It so much annoys you that you had to _invent_ an hypothesis to counter it. Unfortunately that hypothesis is not new (Iris effect) and observations had already invalidated it (though you claimed the opposite).

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@patfrank830 @histoireclimat @TWTThisIsNow @dxchapman @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene Unfortunately for your ad hominem, models forecasts after 20 years are amazingly correct. Unlike any other models based on fitting and not on equations.

You imply that models are merely fitting the past; it is not true. They model physics and use the past for calibration.

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@patfrank830 @TWTThisIsNow @histoireclimat @dxchapman @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene Ad hominem, you are losing again.

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@patfrank830 @TWTThisIsNow @histoireclimat @dxchapman @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene This is a strawman argument. This was about _your_ clai_ not TWT's.

YOU explicitly said that there was one single data source to justify yourself : it isn't the case, whatever uncertainties there are. This means your rebuttal to Jim's was void.

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@patfrank830 @histoireclimat @TWTThisIsNow @dxchapman @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene Instrumental physics show that amount of clouds are going in the opposite direction to what you would expect if your "possibility" was true.

So your hypothesis is wrong.

[Cloclo @cloclo79336]

@TWTThisIsNow @patfrank830 @histoireclimat @dxchapman @BatcaveSlimer @ryankatzrosene Yes, this one was an extraordinary wild claim, given some series use data from ground stations and others from satellites.

🤡