Cloud Y

A journalist without deadline focusing on economics and global economy (yea, that means I am an econ blogger)

[Cloud Y @cloudyip]

🔔🔔🔔
Here is my long-form article on question of why Standing Repo Facility may potentially be one of the most important tools for the Federal Reserve in the post-QT era, featuring @DavidBeckworth
@dandolfa's excellent insights ‼️‼️

👉 https://t.co/i0DX8eoNxJ

[Cloud Y @cloudyip]

@TheStalwart I have an idea that can replace your old time favorite—Trillion-dollar coin~ This is way better~

https://t.co/bZRnjaHnCD

[Cloud Y @cloudyip]

Full analysis here:
Are you Ready for Federal Reserve Chair Miran?

https://t.co/IyCs4RrYFp

[Cloud Y @cloudyip]

1/ Jerome Powell says he’ll serve as "Chair pro tem" if his successor, Kevin Warsh, isn't confirmed by the time his term ends in May. While Powell cites precedent (Greenspan, Burns), a 1978 DOJ memo suggests the President might actually have the power to pick someone else.

[Cloud Y @cloudyip]

4/ Does it matter for rates though?

Not necessarily

While the Board Chair might change, the FOMC Chair—who controls monetary policy—is elected by the committee. Powell was elected for all of 2026. As long as he stays on the Board, the "safe pair of hands" remains in control

[Cloud Y @cloudyip]

My latest explainer!! (which should be a fun read!!)

Are You Ready For Federal Reserve Chair Miran 🤪—A Question On Chair Pro Tem Appointment

https://t.co/IyCs4RrYFp

[Cloud Y @cloudyip]

Explainer on Fed's Reserve Management Purchases
RMP is a form of open market operations under which the Federal Reserve injects reserves into the banking system through “permanent” asset purchases with an aim to ensure the level of reserves remain “ample“
https://t.co/AFXhH0Foa0

[Cloud Y @cloudyip]

A 40 basis point (bps) drop in the unemployment rate is substantial in Canada. 🇨🇦

An improvement of this magnitude was last seen at November 2005, outside the period of COVID distortions seen between from 2020 and mid-2022

🫴 https://t.co/3g3u9T6lnT

[Cloud Y @cloudyip]

Why the Fed's Standing Repo Facility Isn't for Daily Use: An Explainer

https://t.co/oCb48SFqyV

[Cloud Y @cloudyip]

A potential problem with ending QT while the SRF hasn’t yet been seriously used is that the market may infer that the Fed is not comfortable with the interest rate ceiling tool acting as a regular overnight liquidity provider.

https://t.co/TTlxURj67K

[Cloud Y @cloudyip]

We are now talking about Trump appointees may soon get Fed Board majority now, given the Lisa Cook case

and I actually wrote about it *check notes* a month earlier 🌝🌝🌝🌝🌝

[Cloud Y @cloudyip]

This is a topic which I have a very strange feeling about... like... I got to be wrong...
right?? right??

**Trump appointees will get Fed board majority when Powell is gone – and it matters**

https://t.co/PDmZmF0XJz

[Cloud Y @cloudyip]

The major difference between Fed governors and reserve bank presidents is simple...

... one set doesn't go on Odd Lots while another set does

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

We have literally the perfect guest on today’s Odd Lots.

It’s the President of the Kansas City Fed.

@tracyalloway and I talked to Jeffrey Schmid about what everyone is going to be talking about at this year’s monetary policy symposium in Jackson Hole.

https://t.co/XujVbn2a2Z

[Cloud Y @cloudyip]

@TheStalwart @IrvingSwisher actually, can we have the long form video on youtube?

i mean... you guys dressed up! it's a waste we can't get to see it!

(BTW, i want to see Tracy's face when she talked about yelling to Powell's secret service agent)🌝

[Cloud Y @cloudyip]

@TheStalwart @tracyalloway @BeachWW453 at the very end there, joe you interrupted tracy's flow of ONS trying to adopt scanner data on CPI

actually can you guys pick it up again... cuz BLS also doesn't use scanner data actually!! and the reason back in the early 2010s was that "it was too expensive"!!

[Cloud Y @cloudyip]

@tracyalloway @TheStalwart @nytimes @benjwallace @business @carmenarmen @dashbot @CaleBroooks I think this is the time for someone to write an origin story of you!! haha

[Cloud Y @cloudyip]

still, I think an important point that Hong Kong financial system liquidity is no longer solely determined by Aggregate Balance is a point missing in all these analysis~
So it failed to explain how "HKMA controls the interest rate"

but I am here to help

https://t.co/DI4HFd1LAu

[Cloud Y @cloudyip]

Torsten Slok today does a take on Hong Kong dollar peg, and while certainty points are worth considering...

https://t.co/oS2B8z6u7L

[Cloud Y @cloudyip]

... for example on why carry trade doesn't close the interest rate gap still, point 3 on this slide is very important...

[Timothy Taylor @TimothyTTaylor]

Trying to Soften Up the Federal Reserve
https://t.co/XYciyT7iqp