Chris Roan

Mechanical Engineer that loves Investing

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

@KairosPraxis @wolfofharcourt That makes some sense given their cloud transition and one-time non-reoccuring material rights, but the trend would tell you the same story. I'm looking for FCF to be >20% permanently from Q2 on. Accelerated ARR growth from the AI spending is acceptable too.

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

@wolfofharcourt @KairosPraxis Thanks for the response. Yea, ideally it's next to 0%, but it's not hard to find way more egregious offenders. The trend suggests management is pulling all the right levers to reach GAAP profitability "soon".

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

@wolfofharcourt @KairosPraxis

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

@wolfofharcourt @KairosPraxis sbc was lower on a $ basis in 1Q27 than it was 1Q26 and it was the lowest as a percentage of revenue it's ever been. In fact, it's been aggressively trending downward nearly every quarter. Honest question, am I missing something?

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

@StockMarketNerd @sarubactam where did you get the $85M net new ARR estimate for Q1? They only give yearly guidance? Last year they did ~24% of FY26 net new ARR in Q1. Applying 24% to their full year guide of $1834M (midpoint) I'm getting $89.XXM. Just wondering how you got it. Thanks.

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

@joecarlsonshow Congrats Joseph

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

@TravisHoium The market thinks $DDOG is a winner as OpenAI is a large customer *currently*. TBD

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

@wolfofharcourt @fiscal_ai This is part of it, which is why it's red today imo:
"Adjusting for the benefit from material rights in Q2, total revenue grew approximately 44%"
They said Q3 will be soft too, but Q4 will be huge.
Still not bad. I'm adding a few shares.

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

Maybe not the same gift, but still feels like a gift again.🙄

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

TTD down only 25%ish feels like a gift.

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

@StockNovice Thanks for sharing. Super awesome career! I played baseball through college. Great game.

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

@TMFJaguar Swapped fico for upst back in 2020. Clearly didn’t understand the differences in the biz. Maybe the worst decision of all time 😂

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

@drowsyinvestor @investing_bear Get that bear out of hibernation

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

@dhaval_kotecha Great advice Dhaval. Thanks for posting.

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

-1.79% vs 1.44% S&P

February did not treat me well. 

Bought a little RXST, AMZN, GOOG

Thinking bout a little RDDT, RBRK

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

TTD down only 25%ish feels like a gift.

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

6.3% vs 2.8% S&P

I love a good rally, but it feels like everything not named NVDA is going up every day. 

85% invested in case it never stops
15% cash b/c I like a good deal

Best of luck the rest of the year to all.

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

@dhaval_kotecha ugh. Sorry I missed that you posted it. Thanks for the update.

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

@dhaval_kotecha Curious about ZS and DDOG positions Dhaval. Looks a bit more challenging than we hoped several years back, but did you decide to sell out completely?

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

@dhaval_kotecha Excellence as always Dhaval. Happy new year!

[Chris Roan @cmroan01]

Snuck away with a 2pt win this year 

27% vs 25% S&P

Adds: MELI, S, MNDY
Trims: AXON, TTD, NET, HUBS
Nibbling: CXDO, RXST, SPGI, AMZN, GOOG

Best of luck to everyone in 2025!