Charles Lyons-Jones

Research Fellow @LowyInstitute. Former diplomat @dfat and international adviser @pmc_gov_au. Watching strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific. Views are mine.

[Charles Lyons-Jones @cnlyonsjones]

As usual, always worth reading Paul Dibb.

[ASPI @ASPI_org]

'China is not simply increasing its nuclear inventory; it is also thinking seriously about how to fight a nuclear war, with all that means for Australia,' writes Paul Dibb. https://t.co/zKr4XEexZ7

[Charles Lyons-Jones @cnlyonsjones]

So was Australia. The Indo-Pacific is a concept that neatly captures our two-ocean geography, even to this day.

[Shashank Joshi @shashj]

Striking change. India and Japan were both big advocates of the “Indo-Pacific” framing, which reflected a belief that the Indian Ocean and Pacific were a single theatre. The command was renamed in 2018 to that end.

[Bethany 貝書穎 @BethanyAllenEbr]

May 2018: Trump administration changes the name of Pacific Command (PACOM) to Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), as part of a larger pivot to confronting China across the region.

June 2026: Trump administration changes the name back to Pacific Command (PACOM).

[Charles Lyons-Jones @cnlyonsjones]

'Many think this is harder with AI than with nuclear weapons. I disagree. In order to build the global arms-control system after the second world war, leading powers first had to invent the processes, organisations and technologies to support it.' https://t.co/GpzUgZjLlO

[Charles Lyons-Jones @cnlyonsjones]

Ukrainian forces have done an extraordinary job in seizing the battlefield advantage from Russia through tactical ingenuity and unbreakable morale. Victory, though never assured, may be nearer than many realise. Good piece by @WarintheFuture.
https://t.co/oeRyKx8Qme

[Charles Lyons-Jones @cnlyonsjones]

The Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific theatres are much more closely linked than many realise. Good foreign policy needs to respond to that strategic reality.

[Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov]

Former MI6 Chief Richard Moore: Without China, Russia would have lost war in Ukraine.

North Korean troops and Iranian drones grab headlines. But what keeps Putin in Ukraine is China — chemicals for artillery shells, components for drones and missiles.

1/

[Andrew Neil @afneil]

JD Vance went to Ohio State then Yale. But clearly not to study history. WW2 did not end ‘with some kind of negotiation’.

[POLITICO @politico]

Poll: Voter cynicism remains a potent threat to incumbents across the globe https://t.co/Kp4cdeAe8I

[Hal Brands @HalBrands]

The global shock waves of the Iran war will be felt for years--perhaps chief among them, the effects on a US military that has performed impressively, but will find itself overstretched and under-armed for some time to come.

@ForeignPolicy @AEI

https://t.co/WE6jF0EK0i

[Peter Harrell @petereharrell]

The two best statistics in the WSJ’s genuinely great article on North Korea’s economic boom:

Pyongyang built more housing last year than LA. (Says something about CA housing dysfunction).

North Korea assembled more cellphones than the USA.

(Assuming the #s are true!)

[James Heale @JAHeale]

On Friday, the Ukraine War will have lasted 1569 days - longer than the First World War

[Richard Fontaine @RHFontaine]

With the Iran war stalemated, the Ukraine war is shifting significantly in ways that could bring peace - but that more likely mean escalation:

1. For the first time in almost three years, Russia is losing more territory than it’s gaining. The battlefield momentum is shifting toward Ukraine.

2. Russia has now been at this longer than it fought World War II. 500,000 Russian soldiers dead, huge economic costs, and international isolation that has forced Moscow into partnership with the likes of North Korea. And all to subdue a Ukraine that wasn’t threatening Russia in the first place.

3. Ukraine’s military position is strengthening, thanks both to new European aid and a domestic defense industry that is cranking out drones and missiles. Kyiv can strike deep into Russia and is doing so. Russian forces, meanwhile,  are hampered by the loss of Starlink in February.

4. After years of enormous losses, Russia may finally be facing real manpower shortages. Its losses appear to exceed replacement rates and reports suggest Moscow is conscripting Ukrainians in occupied areas into the fight.

5. Both sides seem to have given up on the United States as a determinative force. Zelensky looks to Europe for far more assistance than America provides. Putin bet on Trump forcing Ukraine into a deal that never arrived. The administration itself seems tired of brokering peace where none is to be had.

6. The war has cost Russia’s global profile dearly. Moscow stood by as former client regimes in Syria and Venezuela were swept away, and as Iran came under massive attack. It played no meaningful role in Armenia-Azerbaijan talks. It is clearly the junior partner to China, with only its nukes helping it cling to great power status.

7. With the costs so high and the gains minimal at best, Putin will now look for peace, right? Unfortunately, no. When Russians can’t solve a problem they tend to enlarge it. That means escalation.

8. I’m just back from Europe and policymakers there are bracing for it. We’ve already seen a major increase in bombs landing on Kyiv. Projectiles have hit Romania. Russian nuclear forces on drill. Russian satellites maneuvering in a way that could expand the war to outer space.

9. The U.S. should bolster deterrence. Leave no doubt about U.S. commitment to defend every inch of NATO territory. Impose costs on Russia for gray zone activity in Europe. And it’d be nice to start aiding Ukraine again. The war is terrible. Its expansion to NATO soil would be worse still.

10. The upshot is that, for all the change of battlefield momentum, there is much more fighting ahead, and probably into 2027. The U.S. is no neutral arbiter in this war. It should help Ukraine survive until the end, and to prevail.

[Helen Warrell @helenwarrell]

Phenomenal detail from @FT obituary of the great Alex Younger, from @charles_clover & @JP_Rathbone:

When Dominic Cummings called him for the first time, he asked Younger what he was doing. “Plotting evil shit,” Younger replied.

https://t.co/8zp813oNi6

[Rupert Myers @RupertMyers]

A beautiful detail from the FT’s obit of Sir Alex Younger

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

“When Ronald Reagan became president in 1981 the top income-tax rate in the United States was 70%. When he left in 1989 that rate was 28%.” In a guest essay, Arthur Laffer makes the case for “trickle-down” economics https://t.co/OPvM6aAcKb

[Gordon Corera @gordoncorera]

Sir Alex Younger was a 'spy's spy' who relished the operational side of the business and the former Chief of MI6 will be missed by many. I've written my own tribute in the Classified Insider newsletter this week - https://t.co/wypixLYBgC

[NATO @NATO]

Putin said to all missions ‘leave Kyiv’.

Instead, all 32 NATO Ambassadors and the Secretary General visit Ukraine.

Our message is crystal clear: NATO’s support for Ukraine is unshaken

#StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦

[BBC Newsnight @BBCNewsnight]

"Whatever was going on, however frightening or volatile, he always managed to make you feel slightly better about it."

@vicderbyshire pays tribute to Sir Alex Younger, the former head of MI6 and #Newsnight regular, who has died aged 62.

[Demetri @AsiaLens]

Rubio on the anniversary of Tiananmen 👇

[The Times and Sunday Times @thetimes]

Sir Alex Younger obituary: long-serving head of MI6. Charming and self-effacing British spy chief with an inner steel https://t.co/AQB9FqvLNT