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I have been playing on polymarket for almost 2 years. Today is the day I feel most angry about polymarket team. The ghost fill problem is getting much worse and those bastards are doing 50k resting orders both sides. I am getting 3% rewards on markets I suppose to get 50+%. The team said they would ban all those accounts but I think they are doing some lousy job. It is very easy to ban them. Just track big accounts like me or domah etc, check their backend you see failed transactions then you know which accounts are at fault. Check their ip and linked accounts and ban them all. It is easy. I was doing Amazon 20 years ago, Jeff Bezos know how to ban those Chinese cheaters. I don’t get it why poly is not doing things. The whole order book look like shit now. For 2 years I never requests anything from polymarket but I just think the did too bad this time the whole upgrade was not planned well. And as the #1 lp farmer by far. I suggest that poly should kinda compensate all lp farmer that are still doing lp after the upgrade till Monday’s permanent fix is deployed. (And I kinda skeptical if that upgrade really works) At least pay them a few times more based on their pro rata share of the rewards earned. And perhaps give me one polymarket necklace that identical to Paul Logan’s that sold to Pawn Star Rick’s at $30k (well this part is a joke but maybe Shayne should really consider it) This is so bad that even I as a lp farmer that keeps on farming for 650+ days thinking about quit farming. And it seems to me that if those bastards made like 100k accounts before Monday they might still can keep on doing that? I really hope the team can seriously address this issue. @shayne_coplan@_kanarazu_@Polymarket@mustafap0ly
This address just printed 💰 $200k in the past month- a perfect example of how day traders from the U.S. stock markets are making consistent profits in prediction markets:
- Specializes in tech stocks, primarily trading daily price movements.
- He plays both indices (SPX, NDX) and hot tech names like $NVDA, $PLTR, $TSLA.
- His recent 20 trades show a 70% win rate with a 4:1 profit/loss ratio. He's not lucky - he's skilled.
What's fascinating is how traditional equity day trading strategies translate perfectly to prediction markets - with 24/7 access.
This isn't gambling. It's systematic trading with an edge.
Check out his profile: https://t.co/lT8tX2CAXC
Or you can copy and paste his address in this bot to access an AI analysis report:
- The address: 0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac
- The bot:👉https://t.co/KYobN3WTpN
I know no one wants to hear bullish ideas and everyone is scared and wants to fling poo at each other... but the Road to Valhalla is getting very close.
If global liquidity is the single most dominant macro factor then we MUST focus on that.
REMEMBER - THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN IS ROLLING $10TRN IN DEBT. EVERYTHING ELSE IS A SIDESHOW. THIS IS THE GAME OF THE NEXT 12 MONTHS.
Currently the gov shutdown has forced a sharp tightening of liquidity as the TGA builds up with no where to spend it.
This is not offset by the ability to drain the Reverse Repo (it is drained). And QT drains it further.
This is hitting markets and in particular crypto which is the most liquidity driven. TradiFi asset managers have had one of their worst years of performance vs benchmark and are now having to chase markets and that is allowing tech to be more stable than crypto. 401K flows help too. If this liquidity drain keeps going longer, stocks will get hit hard too.
However...
As soon as the gov shutdown ends, the Treasury begins spending $250bn to $350bn in a couple of months. QT ends and the balance sheet technically expands.
The Dollar will likely begin to weaken again as liquidity begins to flow. Tariff negiotiations will have largely been completed, removing uncertainty
Ongoing bill issuance increases, adding more liquidity via bank balance sheets and money market funds (and stable coins).
Ongoing rate cuts (we will have economic weakness from the shutdown that will add to the evidence that rates need to come lower but no, there is no recession)..
SLR changes free up more of the banks balance sheets allowing for credit expansion.
The CLARITY ACT will get passed, giving the crypto regs so deserately needed for large scale adoption by banks, asset managers and businesses overall.
The Big Beautiful Bill then kicks in to goose the economy into the midterms. The entire system is now being geared toward a strong economy and strong market in 2026 for these elections.
China will continue to expand its balance sheet. Japan will work to strenghten the Yen, and also fiscally stimulate.
The ISM will rise as rates fall and tarrif uncertainty drops away.
You just need to get through the Window of Pain and The Liquidity Flood lies ahead.
Always remember the Dont Fuck This Up rules...and wait out the volatility. Drawdowns like this are common place in bull markets and their job is to test your faith.
BTFD if you can.
td:dr - When this number goes up, all number go up.
A Post-Crash Pilot Debrief from The White Whale
$62M - gone in a flash. But as was repeatedly pounded into my head in pilot training: any landing you can walk away from is a good landing.
As I’ve been processing yesterday’s events, I want to share a few thoughts from a place of honesty, vulnerability, and accountability - as I always have.
Let’s start with why I faced such a large liquidation, and then I’ll share some observations from the last 18 hours.
First and foremost: I got too fixated on the goal.
At one point this year, my unrealized PnL sat at 98 out of 100 million. Counting profits from other platforms, I had actually surpassed that goal - but because some of those platforms lacked HyperLiquid’s transparency, it became a mental game of “proof, or it didn’t happen.”
Heading into late September, my thesis was that because everyone expected a dip, it wouldn’t happen - and I wanted to be positioned in case I was right. I wasn’t. But I remained calm; I’ve survived every “black swan” this year and turned each into profit before.
That 100M milestone meant more than numbers to me. Years ago, I built a real-world company with that same amount as my exit target goal. But I walked away - choosing peace over profit. Running it had made me miserable; I was a prisoner to my own creation. So being able to finish that prior goal, this time on my own terms, became a form of redemption. A personal validation that I’d found a better way.
I’ve always been stubbornly resilient. Knocked down, yes - but never out.
That same determination that helped me survive life’s earlier chapters also made me impatient to start the next one. I wanted to move beyond daily trading and begin shaping the future of this space - helping build what comes next, not just benefiting from it.
Crypto is wild, beautiful, and broken in equal measure. My background has always been consumer-first: if you do right by people, your reward eventually comes. That principle belongs here, too - and I intend to bring it here.
But I rushed. I let excitement override discipline. And that’s on me.
While the timeline was full of “crime season” posts (ironically including my own), I’ve always believed this: you can’t claim the victories if you won’t own the failures.
Yesterday, when someone asked how I was handling it, I admitted I cried in my wife’s arms. Some mocked it with “no crying in the casino.” But I shared that moment intentionally - because sometimes, it’s okay to not be okay.
Vulnerability, especially among men, needs more voices.
And for the record - I’m still up for the year. I’ll recover, rebuild, and rise again.
A few quick observations from the wreckage:
L2 failures, once again.
During peak activity, Arbitrum and Base failed me - transactions hung while I tried to move stables. Solana, meanwhile, stayed rock solid. It wouldn’t have saved the position (nothing could outrun that $3200 ETH / $138 SOL wick), but once again Solana proved it performs when it matters most and earns more of my loyalty by the day.
Leverage isn’t the villain.
Some rushed to say, “See, that’s why leverage kills you.” I reject that. Leverage is just a tool - like a knife, a car, or money itself. Tools aren’t evil. The hand that wields them determines the outcome.
The humanity in the aftermath.
Amid the trolls celebrating others’ losses - a dark side of this space I’ll never understand - I also witnessed incredible compassion. People offering comfort, solidarity…even five individuals offering to send me money to help rebuild. I refused, of course - but the gesture hit me hard. It reminded me that for all the toxicity, there’s still goodness here.
Most days I’m the one offering support, not receiving it. Yesterday reversed that dynamic - and it meant more than I can express.
This wasn’t my proudest moment. But every chapter - even the painful ones - has purpose. If this experience reminds even one person to stay humble, to manage risk, to remain human through the chaos, then it wasn’t wasted.
Losses teach what profits never can: where strength truly lives. And mine was never in the number - it’s in the will to rebuild.
🫡 From the depths —
The White Whale 🐋