$NVDA & $GLW announced a multiyear partnership to expand U.S.-made optical connectivity for AI factories.
Corning will 10x optical connectivity capacity, increase fiber production by 50% & build 3 new U.S. facilities as AI data centers require more fiber & photonics.
《GF Overseas Electronics & Telecom》
☄️ Intel (INTC US, Buy): Earnings Beat — From Recovery to Strength
☀️ Price target raised to $94.2: Despite already elevated market expectations, Intel's 1Q results still meaningfully beat, even though 2Q guidance was somewhat conservative. Many in the market view this earnings call as carrying far greater constructive significance than Intel's routine updates. In fact, several brokers have already followed up with rating upgrades, as the narrative shifts from a "turnaround story" to "AI beneficiary + external foundry option." Overall, we believe Intel's core CPU business will remain strong, with the key watch points being the tightness of substrate and silicon capacitor supply, as well as order wins and execution in the foundry business — and as our prior updates have noted, both are progressing well. Reflecting the results, guidance, and higher margins, we revise our 2026E/2027E/2028E EPS forecasts to $1.5/$2.4/$3.1, and raise our price target from $78.5 to $94.2, based on 3.5x 2027 P/B.
☀️ All-around beat: 1Q revenue of $13.6B came in $1.4B above the guidance midpoint and above consensus of $12.4B. Non-GAAP gross margin was 41%, above both guidance and consensus of 35%, with EPS of $0.29 (guidance: breakeven). Operating cash flow was $1.1B, while adjusted free cash flow was -$2.0B. 2Q guidance: revenue $13.8-14.8B (+2% to +9% QoQ) vs. consensus of $13.0B; Non-GAAP gross margin of 39%, reflecting a higher Panther Lake mix; EPS guidance of $0.20, with DCAI expected to deliver double-digit QoQ growth.
☀️ Foundry on track: As we have repeatedly emphasized since our initiation report in July 2025 and our pre-earnings preview on April 16, we remain bullish on strong customer engagement from Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD on 18A-P (primarily 14A), and we believe Intel will secure a portion of Tesla's AI6 program on 14A by end-2028. On execution, management indicated that 18A yields are running better than internal expectations. External foundry revenue remains small at $174M, with an operating loss of $2.4B, though improving by $72M QoQ. Management expects losses to continue narrowing through the year.
☀️ CPU continues to strengthen: Intel argues that AI workloads are shifting from training toward inference, agentic AI, robotics, physical AI, and edge AI, making the CPU increasingly important as the orchestration layer of the AI stack. Management noted that server CPU demand has improved materially over the past 90 days, and expects both the industry and Intel to deliver double-digit shipment growth in 2026, with the momentum extending into 2027. As flagged in our report, the 2Q26 CPU price hike was already within expectations, and we expect another 5-10% price increase by the end of 3Q. We now forecast DCAI to grow 39%/15% YoY in 2026E/2027E.
$INTC
# GF Tech on Intel
Report date: April 24
Raise TP to $94.2: Many view the call as materially constructive than a typical Intel update. Indeed, there were brokers’ upgrade to catch up, as the thesis is shifting from “turnaround survival” to “AI beneficiary + external foundry optionality”. In general, we believe Intel’s bread and butter CPU business will continue to be strong, while the key to watch is the supply tightness from substrate and Si-cap, and the foundry wins & execution has been tracking ahead per our consistent report updates.
We revise 2026E/2027E/2028E EPS to $1.5/$2.4/$3.1, and lifted TP from $78.5 to $94.2, now based on 3.5x 2027E BVPS.
The Bitcoin cycle is overheated and due for a bear market.
For any of you who have held Bitcoin or especially Altcoins through a bear market, you know that's not a place where you want to be.
Think of risk/reward when you look at this Monthly Bollinger Band % Channel. Are the odds in favor of holding for a "Bottom is in!" or "business cycle"?
Definitely not.
A business cycle already proves it does not line up, as it claims that the cycle is only just beginning as it is ending.
It can be hard to combat the popular narratives at the highs and lows because they are what everyone wants to believe at the time:
"Recession coming"
"Black Swan Coming"
"ETF Super cycle"
"No More Bear Markets"
It's not FUD, it's just the way of the traditional 4 year cycle (Halving Cycles Theory).