Hacienda Santa Elena

[Justin Waite @SharePickers]

"Historic El Niño able to supercharge extreme weather looks increasingly likely – researchers

Models show overwhelming chance that this year’s El Niño to rank among largest going back to 1950."

https://t.co/R3nRxuVH5Q

On July 6, September Arabica Coffee Futures experienced a massive 16.2% spike in a single trading session, hitting nearly $3.50 per pound.

This marked the largest single-day price surge seen this century.

After correcting from their extreme highs of 2024, cocoa futures have aggressively reversed course, skyrocketing over 60% in the last month alone to climb back above $6,200 per tonne.

You can see the charts of WisdomTree Coffee $COFF #COFF & WisdomTree Cocoa $COCO #COCO below - starting to make moves.

[Ana Maria Pereira Nunes @ampereiranunes]

Uma massa de ar quente vem ganhando força sobre o Nordeste e Brasil Central, favorecendo temperaturas extremas de 40°C e umidade do ar de 18%, abaixo dos níveis recomendados à saúde

https://t.co/Sz21XstGi9

[Marcelo Teixeira @tx_marcelo]

@ReutersCommods: US CPC: THERE IS AN 81% CHANCE OF A VERY STRONG EL NIÑO DURING OCTOBER-DECEMBER, THAT WOULD RANK AMONG THE LARGEST EL NIÑO EVENTS IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD GOING BACK TO 1950
#agriculture #coffee #sugar #cocoa #Commodities

[Maja Wallengren @SpillingTheBean]

*BREAKING #KC:Arabica #coffee up 55.40c/lb at $3.5660 in HISTORIC RALLY, SURGING APROX $1 FULL DOLLAR in a week in ASTONISHING reaction to ONGOING global crop disasters,falling exports & dwindling stocks as @SpillingTheBean INSISTED wld happen bcs THE COFFEE IS SIMPLY NOT THERE!!

[BestWeatherinc.com (Global Commodity Coverage) @ClimatePredict]

One of the worst heavy rain situation in decades will hit Brazil #coffee areas and some sugarcane regions next week with 300-500% of normal rainfall again. This is due to a +AAO index and developing El Niño. This is what we sent to our clients Sunday night. #agwx #commodities #ElNiño

Follow us on SUBSTACK here. https://t.co/WvaaJRogTs

[Meteored Brasil @MeteoredBR]

🌬️🌧️ Frente fria e ar polar 🥶 mudam o tempo e derrubam as temperaturas no Sudeste do Brasil.

👉🏼 Saiba quando com Flávia Rosso: https://t.co/8bgp6KLUna

[Ryan Delany @CoffeeNinjaRyan]

Arabica coffee certified stocks fell by ~60k bags MoM to a total of 388.9k yesterday. Pending volume remains negligible at just 0.2k bags, so there is almost no coffee awaiting inspection and certification. Historically, low cert stocks (<1m) tend to support market inversion.

[MetSul.com @metsul]

🔴 ATENÇÃO - ALERTA | Massa de ar frio mais intensa do ano até agora pode trazer frio extremo no começo do inverno. Modelos projetam até -7°C a -8°C com o ar polar sobre o Sul do Brasil.

‼️ Leia o boletim e veja o que esperar do frio. ▶️ https://t.co/n4Uq67PjBt

[Curiosity @CuriosityonX]

🚨: A record-breaking super El Niño may trigger floods, droughts, and record heat across the planet

[All day Astronomy @forallcurious]

🚨: Scientists are closely monitoring the Pacific Ocean as signs of a possible super El Niño begin to emerge for late 2026 into early 2027.

[Curiosity @CuriosityonX]

BREAKING🚨: Earth just entered intense weather cycle and could be the strongest ever recorded

The 2026 El Niño is shaping up to be the deadliest since 1877 — the year famines killed more than 50 million.

Forecasters are tracking ocean temperature spikes of 2 to 3 degrees Celsius. That's not a minor uptick. That's the signature of a once-in-150-years event.

Per LiveScience: a "Super" El Niño is now the most likely outcome by year's end. The human cost could be staggering.

[All day Astronomy @forallcurious]

JUST IN🚨: Scientists detect a 9,000 mile underwater heat structure fueling the next El Niño

[BestWeatherinc.com (Global Commodity Coverage) @ClimatePredict]

Find special updates here https://t.co/WvaaJRogTs

Following my bearish attitude in #coffee since $3.50-$4.00 last August-September on our prediction of a big rebound in the Brazil crop, these rains #agwx, if they verify could cause some early season harvesting concerns @DutchBros @Folgers @CostaCoffee heading into late May and early June. My concern also stems from it being too wet for @WRadioColombia coffee

[World Affairs @World_Affairs11]

BREAKING:

Brazil says it will retaliate against the US if it attacks on Brazilian sovereignty.

[Ryan Delany @CoffeeNinjaRyan]

Colombia's cumulative 25/26 coffee prod is at 6.9m bags from Oct-Apr. That’s 26.2% below a yr ago (9.4m) while 9.5% below the 5-yr avg (7.6m). Prod is falling below initial expectations, seemingly due to persistent rain so far this yr. Rains now seem to delay the Mitaca harvest.

[Stormchasernick @stormchasernick]

Godzilla Super El Niño

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

The strongest El Niño in 150 years? Yes, it’s legitimately possible. Not hype. In fact, the “median” forecast for December of all of our computer models combined is slightly “above” the biggest event we know of back in 1877. (+2.9 vs +2.7 using ONI) While this peak intensity may or may not occur, all signs are pointing to a Super El Niño - a “natural” oscillation. That will expel stored heat from the deep Tropical Pacific - on top of significant longterm warming - heating Earth to record levels not measured before in late 2026-2027, powering extreme heat waves, droughts, and rain storms… while also suppressing Atlantic hurricane season 1/
#ElNino #extremeweather #science

[Jeff Berardelli @WeatherProf]

2027 will almost certainly be the warmest year on record for Earth - by a long shot - and perhaps even 2026 may reach a record too. That’s due to the big boost of heat released from El Niño, on top of the long term warming. This happens as excess heat stored deep in the west tropical Pacific moves east and towards the ocean surface. When it reaches the surface the extra energy sparks thunderstorms and powers a strong subtropical jetstream. That combination releases tons of heat into the air and powers extreme weather all around the planet. As a result, the planet’s surface temperature will warm up significantly, pushing us past (probably far past) the record set in 2024. Worth noting that the planet’s warmest 10 years on record are indeed the last 10 years. And that the Earth is likely warmer now than it’s been in at least 120,000 years. #elnino #heatwave #extremeweather #science #stem

[Patrick Karim @badcharts1]

If coffee holds above those black lines... we could see a 4x to 5x move from here!

[Tiago Robles @tiagocrobles]

Estão falando de onda de frio a partir do dia 10. Sim, haverá um evento mais intenso, mas não o suficiente para definir onda de frio ainda. As anomalias previstas estão em no máximo -1°C para um período de no mínimo 5 dias. Será o mais significativo até o momento, mas calma ai.