well im kinda different because im not a ceo or anything so i can just be a lot more direct & degen in ways that they cannot, but i do think that vlad sees that revenue is revenue, they know how much volume dogecoin did on their platform when it was ripping, but they didnt list newer memes like wif until multi billions last cycle, so i imagine if there are memecoins that are attracting consistent volume this time around they will list earlier which is why they're paying close attention
gut feel ansem dips to 0.36 later then shoots back to 0.47-0.48 before topping momentarily
chop and washout plebs for 3-4 days then continue marching to 1B.
in these 3-4 days, buyback certain on chain coins
sell em when they recover 20-30% and hit smash wen ansem dips 270m
Just read the @4PillarsResearch piece by @ponyo_fp on @collector_crypt. The data work is solid, the conclusions aren't.
Going through the five concerns and where I think the framing flips:
1) Decreasing margin
On the net margin halving from 11.2% to 5.6%: yes, take rate compressed, but absolute net revenue still roughly doubled in the same period.
They defined a vertical, it got hyped, it got competitive, and they hold something like 75% market share. The race to the bottom on fees and margins is something you have to play when you're the category leader. Their market share tells you they're doing it right.
2) Whale driven user base
Valid concern and nothing new, and the team is the first to admit it. But extreme power-law distribution is sustainable for plenty of businesses, it's not automatically a problem.
What I'll add: the team is very aware. If you knew what they're cooking to expand the user base, you'd be as unconcerned AND hyped as I am.
3) Redemptions are bad for the business
On physical redemptions framed as a drag on the model: this is the dumbest take in the article.
Sure, it would be best if every user was a pure gambler recycling 100% of cards. But the fact that this isn't the case, and that redemptions keep climbing, is the strongest signal you can get that the user base is made up of actual collectors. They chase sought after grails and want to own them, digitally or physically.
That's one of the most bullish stats in the whole piece. Real pmf, real long-term business sustainability.
4) GameStop as competitor
Healthy competition that validates the massive pmf of this vertical that they defined.
Crypto native rails are an actual moat here, this is a business that gets 10x better and more efficient with them. GameStop's model is also far more extractive while Collector delivers a much better experience with positive EV for users. That drives retention long-term.
The one real GameStop advantage is distribution. But again, if you knew what Collector is cooking on that front, you'd be as unconcerned AND hyped as I am.
5) B2B unproven
Also off. Collector is already the go-to infrastructure and API layer for anyone expanding into onchain collectibles.
@MagicEden, @solflare, @ComicBook, @rarible, @renaissxyz, @slabcash, the list keeps growing. That's not an "unproven recurring revenue thesis," that's the market already voting Collector as the absolute B2B leader in the vertical, which should eventually compound by its track record and trust / Lindy.
If anyone else has concerns, come throw them at me.
But if you prefer to engagement farm on the timeline rather than seeing the opportunity in a hyper-fast growing, annualized 9-digit revenue business such as $CARDS, I can't help you anymore.
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The market is sleeping on Collector Crypt’s secondary market activity ramp-up. As gachas continue to pull inventory onchain we’re grinding towards a tipping point where CC liquidity will be competitive with eBay
eBay charges 13%+ with massive overhead. CC is a game-changer: 2% fee, settles instantly, stores cards in insured custody, tradeable at a tap
it’ll look obvious in hindsight
The reason all these people are writing articles about solana:CARDSccUMFKoPRZxt5vt3ksUbxEFEcnZ3H2pd3dKxYjp right now is because theyre likely getting paid to right before a massive insider token unlock on June 29th.
This is like the 5th article from these types of “gold check” crypto accounts in the past few days.
Fuck these people lol. Wait until all these insiders dump then buy.
https://t.co/AoCPqWxGaI
solana:CARDSccUMFKoPRZxt5vt3ksUbxEFEcnZ3H2pd3dKxYjp | $100,000,000 market cap soon?
One of best and least talked about coins on SOL this year. Think it will hit 100M though?
Been bidding into $CARDS (Collector Crypt) and something stood out that I barely see anyone mentioning...It’s not just another tokenized card play or Gacha hype. The Gacha system is actually built with positive expected value for the user. On average you pull more value than you spend. Plus they offer an 85% instant buyback guarantee on whatever you get.
2/ Most crypto packs/games are designed to be -EV (the house wins). Here it’s the opposite because they buy real graded cards wholesale (cheap through dealer networks) and structure the packs so the math works in your favor on average.
3/ This changes everything. It pulls in actual collectors and traders who see real economic sense in participating, not just degens hoping for a quick flip. The thrill of opening packs + the chance to come out ahead = way stickier usage than pure speculation plays.
4/ And because 100% of net CARDS token sale proceeds go straight into buying more physical cards for the treasury, token demand directly fuels more inventory and more Gacha volume. Real flywheel, not just vibes @Collector_Crypt
They are sourcing 2M a DAY to continue on replenishing the DEMAND.
Though $CARDS does not necessarily portray any EQUITY to the holder of the coin (or maybe one day? who knows! IDK) it is an "investment" on betting on the team's foundation to continue to grow in their sector.
Leading #1 on-chain TCG surpassing Courtyard and Phygitals, continuing to meet restock demands, buying back at 85% (90~93% for the $2500 GACHA, my personal fave atm)
Revenue =/ buying back power/demands for only token enjoyorrs. They've set their foundation almost a year ago, and it has continued to only grow at an insane rate.
Let @Collector_Crypt cook.
love to see the new weekly revenue ath for $cards, some bullish catalysts I'm looking forward to :
- mobile app ready, waiting on the pricing oracle to be perfect. they've been planning to start web 2 marketing, and a mobile app seems the perfect way to onboard non-crypto native people
- scaling up slab buying. they're up to $2+ mil/week of slabs now, and even with that rate of buying, machines have regularly been low on stock
- scaling up wholesale buying. part of the reason they bought a physical store a month or so back was to get into their wholesale program, which should mean more sealed gachas
- non-stop partnership announcements driving more revenue and new types fo products, particularly liked the world cup tickets. one of my fav bull cases for $cards was always that they'd be the infrastructure powering the tokenized collectibles space
- that article that said they were buying back a few hundred thousand worth was confirmed to be them. eventually, I'm confident they'll do it automatically. they're clearly valuing the token and planning more value accrual
- I believe after the clarity act passes, ideally soon, they've hinted they plan to make $cards more like equity in the company. with slabs hitting new records, having an equity-like ownership would be a great value add. as of the 15th, their vault had roughly $40 mil in tokenized cards
- and of course, the (apparently) upcoming gachas, a $5k one, and a $1k one piece one. the people want their high value gachas so revenue should keep setting new aths