X

Data Science and Astronomy. Co-founder, PoliQ. Genai@SEEK. #auspol
(Now at coljac where the sky is blue)
ssh

[X @coljac]

Could the Gaza calamity have electoral implications here? On the one hand, it has generated coverage and debate, and strong feeling on both sides. But it is far away and detached from the reality of most (but by no means all) of the electorate. #auspol

[X @coljac]

This isn't a parody article, this is just routine journalism in the modern age. #ai #Claude

[X @coljac]

@akshaymarch7 @jack @blocks Twas always thus, and never rational. I recommend "The man who broke capitalism" about Jack Welch - every time a protege went to lead a company and started cutting jobs the stock went up, and it almost never went well for the firm.

[X @coljac]

@HoytsAustralia By the way, I can't join your rewards program at this time. Happens every time.

[X @coljac]

I'm claiming my AI agent "Pullings" on @moltbook 🦞

Verification: lagoon-XEGJ

[X @coljac]

I'm claiming my AI agent "Pullings" on @moltbook 🦞

Verification: lagoon-XEGJ

[X @coljac]

Not surprised by the #prahranbyelection result (I predicted the Greens would easily retain). A further prediction is that Tony Lupton's voters will have strayed majorly from the HTV which preferenced the Libs. #vicpol

[X @coljac]

@RumeysaGelgi Hi Rumeysa. What kind of web dev do you do? What stack do you like?

[X @coljac]

@Michelle_Rent @rippinghottakes Wills is sus. We have our own modelling, independent of any campaigning (which is definitely happening).

[X @coljac]

@thomsonwithap98 @rippinghottakes MRP still needs decent sample sizes. You need to be able to constrain the preferences of the under-represented pollees.

I'm not convinced by these numbers. Look at Wills. I'm skeptical the Greens would be going backwards. Out own model puts them well up on 2022.

[X @coljac]

Deakin for instance is more consistent, but we don't have the Libs ahead as strongly.

[X @coljac]

A few surprises in Redbridge's latest data. We'll release our model in the next week along with a prediction for the next parliament, but our results diverge a bit from @KosSamaras , especially in Victoria. It's hard to see the Greens going backwards in Wills:
#auspol

[X @coljac]

@RadarHits "People use Bitcoin as a speculative asset. It's like gold, it's just like gold only it's virtual, it's digital. People are not using it as a form of payment or as a store of value, it's highly volatile. It's not a competitor for the dollar, it's really a competitor for gold."

[X @coljac]

@KosSamaras On the flip side, Wills, Holt and Parramatta have smaller margins - but in the case of Wills, the preferences have somewhere to go that isn't the ALP if a Muslim community independent gets up. I'd say It's in a different class to Holt and Parramatta.

[X @coljac]

Today Vic Greens state leader Samantha Ratnam threw her hat in the ring. Last time she ran the margin was less than 5% for Labor, but the Greens vote in the heavily-Muslim North is mostly untapped. The ALP will be putting their heads together on this one today.

[X @coljac]

Could the Gaza calamity have electoral implications here? On the one hand, it has generated coverage and debate, and strong feeling on both sides. But it is far away and detached from the reality of most (but by no means all) of the electorate. #auspol

[X @coljac]

There are 14 ALP seats held by a margin less than the Muslim population of the seat. In some of these seats, a good Muslim independent candidate with real community backing (doorknocks, staffing booths) could ring some alarm bells. One seat stands out, though: Wills.

[Anthony Albanese @AlboMP]

The Government has been forced to admit that $40 a day isn't enough to live on.

In the aftermath of the pandemic, we can't have people sliding back into poverty.

Because when Australians fall on hard times, we should help them get back on their feet.

[X @coljac]

@domp You've been right on the money (heh) on crypto in the past ("new hottie in town"), so why no skepticism in "Bitcoin's time to shine"? You're a smart person and a journalist, surely just repeating industry hype without comment is not the done thing.

[X @coljac]

@typstapp Hi! I'm having problems getting the editor to load. Once in a way it works. The browser reports "Firefox can’t establish a connection to the server at wss://editing.api.typst.app/enter/..." Is this a capacity thing?