Michael

[Michael @combonnation]

AI correction has been lower lows, 2 steps down 1 step up. My bottoming scenario, Big runner "junk" has to give up most of gains. $NVDA and big pals outperform by going down less. A healthy uptrend after bottom is if NVDA and big pals lead upward and junk stays dead.

[Michael @combonnation]

@insane_analyst @tailrisked I don't remember xAI ever talking about using SOFCs. He's been largely using mini gas turbines. $SEI rents some of those to xAI and they also have a JV with xAI. But at 10 GW+, perhaps he needs to take whatever he can get.

[Michael @combonnation]

@policytensor Iran is almost out of time to hurt energy prices for US consumers before election day. And to escalate big time risks sending too many body bags back to the US. Safest is to attack Gulf oil infra strongly.

[Michael @combonnation]

@rohanpaul_ai $crdo has a working product called Omniconnect/ Weaver boxes which does the same, except for shorter distances but using short reach serdes. The goal is to replace HBM with cheaper DDR. Also can put lots more ram in. That is designed into the Positron inference chips due in 2027.

[Michael @combonnation]

@GardinerIsland I see 10 yr rates etc dropping but not huge. But all the rate sensitive stuff is up alot more than rates would indicate. Only guess is bc of news of a new Iran peace deal again. You got any ideas?

[Michael @combonnation]

@jimdelisle Is that the same reason that MSRs (from what i heard) values have not risen? Old low rate paper that did not refi is not doing it now or at higher rates esp as owners are closed to the sale and buyer another home bc of rates and supply. Have not looked at MBS stuff for a while.

[Michael @combonnation]

@joedab12 We did get soft confirmation of when Fab 1 will be full though.

[Michael @combonnation]

@insane_analyst If you do it, do it in size so we know for sure if your shorting ability is legendary, good or bad, or not. No weak signals.

[Michael @combonnation]

$lite better increase their capacity. Or else $cohr will get more a chance to sell their OCS. The not accepting orders since April does not jive time wise with Lite upgrading guidance a little over 1 months ago bc of OCS. https://t.co/21gMPvZOdW

[Michael @combonnation]

https://t.co/ZO39MOIWj7
External customers like Anthropic prefer Broadcom over Mediatek, based on the expert. This affirms my belief that Anthropic matters more than Google.

[Michael @combonnation]

@vorpal_onchain Bad example to make a point. No one went BK without taking on too much debt. He also has high margins so he can over buy a bit but there is an optimal betting strategy grounded in math which prove that you should not bet the bank even if the odds are great.

[Michael @combonnation]

@jukan05 V8 is true ramp in cy27. So v10 should be 29 if things go smoothly. With asic multi source strategy and no certainty in tech, no one knows what will happen in 29.

[Michael @combonnation]

@pequityresearch Yes, Anthropic matters more than losing share in TPU.

[Michael @combonnation]

@staunovo Hi is talking about investors buying old tankers and refurbishing it. Wow. Even if Russia wants to sell and a price can be agreed, that refurbishing process is going to take a while.

[Michael @combonnation]

@BrettErickson28 @JM_Szuba @AlMonitor Oiii, I don't think that Iran cares. At this point, it just signals to Iran that they can do more without consequences. I really hope that they do not sink a ship and kill US soldiers.

[Michael @combonnation]

I have the same thought as Doomberg that it is hard to sell AI to old school companies to replace knowledge workers. It is more likely that AI first companies will outcompete the dinosaurs. https://t.co/DlrZL9ev4h

[Michael @combonnation]

Damn, Trump and pals are coming after the tanker market with jawboning. For the tanker owners, this may be a game of chicken. Seems just like paper crude, the paper tanker stocks are most affected. @christankerfund

[BreakWave @DryBulkETF]

US CONVERTING SANCTIONED TANKERS TO LEGITIMATE TANKERS: WRIGHT
DOZENS TO HUNDREDS OF DARK TANKERS COULD BE CONVERTED: WRIGHT

[Michael @combonnation]

@SixSigmaCapital If that is unsecured, I don't trust mgmt. Going back to the btc mining days, they specialize in value scraping. Cannot be trusted long term to max stakeholder value.

[Michael @combonnation]

@christankerfund Very interesting. Dirty tanker rates are indeed dropping. Guess we will need to see that stabilize or reverse.

[Michael @combonnation]

@RHouseResearch Is that meant to be a blend of old contracts? The new contracts are all higher #s and also with substantial prepayments as a % of capex or contract value.

[Michael @combonnation]

@tengyanAI I want to see the whole deal structure 1st. What are those similar ratings? Who are those borrowers, what are the exact ratings, project finance, securitizations or whole loans? When (spreads have widened recently)? I smell a narrative in how the news was written.