![Rory_Johnston's tweet photo. Excerpt from my latest report, 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆?
🛢️ Our normal indicators of China’s petroleum demand have collapsed, from a more than 40% reduction in crude imports to the steepest contraction in domestic Chinese refining activity since COVID-zero in 2022.
🛢️ However, mobility indicators remain robust and show minimal signs of true demand destruction, with flights, truck traffic, and road congestion all sitting at healthy levels.
🛢️ The pullback in imports far outpaces the pullback in refining runs, which, in turn, outpaces any evidence of a retrenchment in end-user activity; in addition, visible inventory data has remained flat-to-higher.
🛢️ This incongruence of flows indicates a high likelihood that the Chinese government is injecting a substantial volume of strategic petroleum stocks—both crude and finished products—into the market, providing critical supply relief to Hormuz-starved Asia and buying additional time before the scarcity panic really bites.
The financial consequences of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are accumulating slower than initially expected (read: Sanguine Strait Stoppage). One argument is that material demand destruction is already visible in one of the world’s most important markets: China. As the largest and most variable demand centre in Asia, China is very much “ground zero” for how the Hormuz Crisis is playing out. Indeed, we have already seen a measurable, 40% decrease in Chinese crude imports from 11.5 MMbpd in February to a May month-to-date average of less than 7 MMbpd.
Digging in, there is a confusing assortment of volatile trade and refining data to parse. Chinese crude imports have fallen faster than refinery run rates, which have fallen faster than visible mobility data. Together, this indicates that China is likely drawing statistically invisible inventories of both crude and refined products to sustain demand. In other words, this is not true demand destruction but, rather, temporary supply relief in the same vein as the US and Japanese SPR releases, keeping the market looser than it otherwise would be right now.
This highlights a more structural and analytically discomforting reality: despite unprecedented visibility into global oil inventories and seaborne trade (thanks to the proliferation of alternative data vendors), large portions of China’s oil industry remain troublingly opaque. Today, this represents the largest blind spot to the market’s collective statistical model of the oil industry. And, more urgently, this leaves the market guessing as to when China’s aggressive SPR support will be exhausted or otherwise withdrawn, which would prompt a renewed surge in upward pricing pressure.
Let’s review the Chinese data that we do have—from imports through refining and on to end consumer behaviour—to get a better sense of whether this looks more like true demand destruction or mere temporary supply relief.
[Link to the rest of the piece in reply below]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HI7NJavXEAAMLiw.jpg)
Olivia
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learnt trading with @ market-wizards-books
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Never advice!!
Joined September 2022
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@GavMcCracken lookin at the Dec_2027 Future. Once it goes to 80, its GO Time for Oil companies. If it hits the 85-90 range E&P names moon.
@GavMcCracken Imop, oil should easily be up by 5-10% on all these news. It is what it is though, lets subsidize demand and run intentories to 0
Usually, this news alone would lift up Oil by 2%. Then add the fact, there were attacks in the ME with an Iranian Factory being targeted +the red-sea closed for Israel. not only that, but the strait of Hormuz is closed and we loose 11m b/d. And oil is <100 @GavMcCracken
Ukrainian long-range drones have struck the Grushovaya oil terminal near Novorossiysk in Russia.
The facility is now on fire
Ukrainian long-range drones have struck the Grushovaya oil terminal near Novorossiysk in Russia.
The facility is now on fire
@calvinfroedge @robin_j_brooks Yeah lets just run a supply deficit and draw from inventories but prices should not adapt. Even high schoolers can understand that concept.
@GavMcCracken @UraniumSteve @MineraAlamos re-rating might take some time. Nice catalysts coming but not sure SP can escape the short term pressure on gold prices. But just let them execute. If Minera SP stays flat in 2026 and then gold goes up im 2027 this can 3x in 1 year
@GavMcCracken @BarakRavid let them manipulate the price downwards, so demand stays flat while inventories get drawn
@GavMcCracken @BhanuKonepalli Thats why I like Cenovus. Am I down on the Stock, yeah and maybe the stock drops another 10-15%. But they can basically keep everthing running around 45 WTI and pay a divi. If this whole thing doesnt lead to '27 Oil going higher then maybe I am just too stupid and I quit
Lies will continue, as long as stocks rally.
Stock rally will continue, as long as Fed pumps QE to Wall Street.
QE will continue, as long as Fed perceives financial crisis risk.
Financial crisis risk will continue, as long as global economy decays.
Global economy will continue to decay, as long as Hormuz is closed.
Hormuz will remain closed, as long as USgov will refuse to let a multi-polar world.
In other words, we are in a war economy, characterized by economic decay 📉, lies 🤥 & stock market rally 🤔
@calvinfroedge "We need a CO2 Tax to promote diversity/bike lanes, womans rights and climate change" abd how funny if EU politicans would not only agree to pay the tax but say they support the Iranian climate tax lol
@marketplunger1 Inflation + economic growth = base metals especially Copper development stories
@calvinfroedge @Polymarket Spx up, commodities up, bonds down then maybe YCC, real wages down. Thats rhe trade for the next 3-5 years
@GavMcCracken Expect Revolver Closing NR the next 1-2 weeks. Shortly afterwards or same time CS PFS. A good study imop can lift the Stock 10-15% easily
https://t.co/Fe0vr0m11j
CdO is coming @GavMcCracken
so still bullish oil. While their releases help to balance the market, their inventories are declining and they probably want to refill them sooner or later
Excerpt from my latest report, 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆?
🛢️ Our normal indicators of China’s petroleum demand have collapsed, from a more than 40% reduction in crude imports to the steepest contraction in domestic Chinese refining activity since COVID-zero in 2022.
🛢️ However, mobility indicators remain robust and show minimal signs of true demand destruction, with flights, truck traffic, and road congestion all sitting at healthy levels.
🛢️ The pullback in imports far outpaces the pullback in refining runs, which, in turn, outpaces any evidence of a retrenchment in end-user activity; in addition, visible inventory data has remained flat-to-higher.
🛢️ This incongruence of flows indicates a high likelihood that the Chinese government is injecting a substantial volume of strategic petroleum stocks—both crude and finished products—into the market, providing critical supply relief to Hormuz-starved Asia and buying additional time before the scarcity panic really bites.
The financial consequences of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are accumulating slower than initially expected (read: Sanguine Strait Stoppage). One argument is that material demand destruction is already visible in one of the world’s most important markets: China. As the largest and most variable demand centre in Asia, China is very much “ground zero” for how the Hormuz Crisis is playing out. Indeed, we have already seen a measurable, 40% decrease in Chinese crude imports from 11.5 MMbpd in February to a May month-to-date average of less than 7 MMbpd.
Digging in, there is a confusing assortment of volatile trade and refining data to parse. Chinese crude imports have fallen faster than refinery run rates, which have fallen faster than visible mobility data. Together, this indicates that China is likely drawing statistically invisible inventories of both crude and refined products to sustain demand. In other words, this is not true demand destruction but, rather, temporary supply relief in the same vein as the US and Japanese SPR releases, keeping the market looser than it otherwise would be right now.
This highlights a more structural and analytically discomforting reality: despite unprecedented visibility into global oil inventories and seaborne trade (thanks to the proliferation of alternative data vendors), large portions of China’s oil industry remain troublingly opaque. Today, this represents the largest blind spot to the market’s collective statistical model of the oil industry. And, more urgently, this leaves the market guessing as to when China’s aggressive SPR support will be exhausted or otherwise withdrawn, which would prompt a renewed surge in upward pricing pressure.
Let’s review the Chinese data that we do have—from imports through refining and on to end consumer behaviour—to get a better sense of whether this looks more like true demand destruction or mere temporary supply relief.
[Link to the rest of the piece in reply below]
![Rory_Johnston's tweet photo. Excerpt from my latest report, 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆?
🛢️ Our normal indicators of China’s petroleum demand have collapsed, from a more than 40% reduction in crude imports to the steepest contraction in domestic Chinese refining activity since COVID-zero in 2022.
🛢️ However, mobility indicators remain robust and show minimal signs of true demand destruction, with flights, truck traffic, and road congestion all sitting at healthy levels.
🛢️ The pullback in imports far outpaces the pullback in refining runs, which, in turn, outpaces any evidence of a retrenchment in end-user activity; in addition, visible inventory data has remained flat-to-higher.
🛢️ This incongruence of flows indicates a high likelihood that the Chinese government is injecting a substantial volume of strategic petroleum stocks—both crude and finished products—into the market, providing critical supply relief to Hormuz-starved Asia and buying additional time before the scarcity panic really bites.
The financial consequences of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are accumulating slower than initially expected (read: Sanguine Strait Stoppage). One argument is that material demand destruction is already visible in one of the world’s most important markets: China. As the largest and most variable demand centre in Asia, China is very much “ground zero” for how the Hormuz Crisis is playing out. Indeed, we have already seen a measurable, 40% decrease in Chinese crude imports from 11.5 MMbpd in February to a May month-to-date average of less than 7 MMbpd.
Digging in, there is a confusing assortment of volatile trade and refining data to parse. Chinese crude imports have fallen faster than refinery run rates, which have fallen faster than visible mobility data. Together, this indicates that China is likely drawing statistically invisible inventories of both crude and refined products to sustain demand. In other words, this is not true demand destruction but, rather, temporary supply relief in the same vein as the US and Japanese SPR releases, keeping the market looser than it otherwise would be right now.
This highlights a more structural and analytically discomforting reality: despite unprecedented visibility into global oil inventories and seaborne trade (thanks to the proliferation of alternative data vendors), large portions of China’s oil industry remain troublingly opaque. Today, this represents the largest blind spot to the market’s collective statistical model of the oil industry. And, more urgently, this leaves the market guessing as to when China’s aggressive SPR support will be exhausted or otherwise withdrawn, which would prompt a renewed surge in upward pricing pressure.
Let’s review the Chinese data that we do have—from imports through refining and on to end consumer behaviour—to get a better sense of whether this looks more like true demand destruction or mere temporary supply relief.
[Link to the rest of the piece in reply below]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HI7NLuGW8AAGN46.jpg)
@GavMcCracken I believe both CdO and CS will produce more. Especially if gold goes higher, they can mine so much rock that has not been profitable before.
@GavMcCracken did you listen to this? DB said they aspire to be a "300-500 k" producer. Say until then Gold goes to 7000, they get to 400k and AISC is around 2500. The napkin math gives me a profit (before taxes, royalties etc.) of 400k * (7000-2500) = 1,8bn. Thats 3x current MC
NEW PODCAST 🎙️: CEO Darren Blasutti joins @TrevAHall on the Mining Stock Daily podcast to discuss our recently announced rebranding to Mining Americas Inc., strengthening of the Board and management team, and our Q4 results.
https://t.co/P5GL4fyK2W
@GavMcCracken I think DB has a long term plan of growing the company to a bigger producer via more M&A (down the road with the FCF). So there will come a point when the question is, whats the better way to improve EPS. Share buyback or smart M&A
We are not even talking about a gold price of 10k. Which imop is in the cards over the next 5 years. Minera Alamos should and will use their CFs to finance CS/ Gold Rock, but by then there should be enough Cash to not only finance CdO but do a NCIB and then M&A
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