Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸

peace, love, markets, weather, technology for the farming world online at & | journalist | tweets are my own

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

Jun 04 | Commodity Week

https://t.co/tLJllEdV3k

In the June 4 edition of Commodity Week, host Todd Gleason and panelists Logan Kimmel, Sherman Newlin, and Shane Holtorf analyze the recent, severe sell-offs across the agricultural grain markets. The discussion highlights a 12-day consecutive drop in wheat futures—exacerbated by fund liquidations and crude oil market trends—that consequently dragged down corn and soybean prices. While domestic crush capacity provides a baseline of support for soybeans, the panel emphasizes that renewed export demand from China is critical for a sustained price recovery. Looking ahead to the late June acreage report and the potential for summer weather volatility, the analysts caution producers against liquidating grain at current lows. Instead, they recommend establishing calculated, profitable price targets for both old and new crop inventory and keeping working orders actively placed with buyers to capture any sudden market bounces. Finally, the panel notes rising volatility in the livestock sector due to screwworm headlines, urging cattle and hog producers to aggressively manage their downside risk.

Panelists
- Logan Kimmel, Roach Ag
- Sherman Newlin, Zaner Ag Hedge
- Shane Holtorf, Logic Ag

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

Jun 04 | Closing Market Report

In the commodity sector, corn and soybeans experienced a sharp decline, breaking through key moving averages. This downturn was driven by continuous fund selling, speculation about delayed Chinese purchasing, and increased Argentine crop estimates. While farmers have priced approximately 25% of their new crop—outpacing last year's sales—they remain below the 50% to 60% targets recommended by analysts. Future price rallies are heavily dependent on whether the dry northern regions of the Corn Belt receive sufficient rainfall in the coming days.

The USDA has confirmed the presence of the New World screwworm in South Texas, initiating a 20-kilometer quarantine zone and releasing sterile flies to halt the infestation. Because the pest spreads almost exclusively through the transportation of infected animals, Midwest herds remain safe as long as cattle are not moved from the southern border area. Pet owners in the affected Texas region are also advised to monitor their animals closely, as the insect feeds on living tissue in open wounds.

For growers looking to diversify, premium markets such as non-GMO, organic, and hybrid-specific crops offer strong profit potential. Capitalizing on these premiums requires rigorous on-farm segregation to prevent cross-contamination and proactive planning, as contracts for these specialized programs often reach capacity months in advance.

Looking at the weather, the northeast half of the Corn Belt is facing an unusually dry start to the season. An upper-level high-pressure system is expected to maintain above-average temperatures and block major rain events for the next week to ten days. Meanwhile, North American spring wheat is beginning to recover from a historically dry April and May due to recent precipitation, and growing regions across Europe and Russia continue to benefit from highly favorable moisture levels.

- Ag Markets with Matt Bennett, https://t.co/Tkny7zhL48
- First Case of New World Screwworm Confirmed in Texas
- Premium Crop Market Opportunities Webinar Review with Kelsey Graber, https://t.co/m08xCwvFRv
- Ag Weather with Mike Tannura, https://t.co/cnQIjBkgRJ

https://t.co/XoPgn4DeG6

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

CMR | Consolidation with in the Fertilizer Industry

This episode of the Closing Market Report examines long-term consolidation trends within the U.S. agricultural sector. Henrique Monaco details findings from a farmdoc daily article on the U.S. nitrogen fertilizer industry, explaining that high concentration—with the top four companies controlling 70% of domestic ammonia production capacity—is the expected result of cost-based competition in a mature commodity market, rather than a reaction to recent geopolitical supply shocks. Agricultural economist Jim MacDonald expands on this theme by outlining parallel consolidation at the farm level. Utilizing a 2,000-acre threshold to ensure consistent tracking devoid of inflation-related distortion, MacDonald notes that large operations expanded their share of U.S. cropland from 15% in 1987 to 41% by 2017. Both experts underscore that economies of scale and cost efficiency remain the primary catalysts for industry consolidation, from input manufacturing to farm-level crop production.

- Henrique Monaco, farmdoc Researcher - University of Illinois
- Jim MacDonald, Agricultural Economist - University of Maryland

https://t.co/YGhh7rkB2I

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

Bushnell Prairie City singing the national anthem at the Cub/Card game tonight in St.Louis. What a thrill for them!

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

May 29 | Closing Market Report
https://t.co/IT0XOGijbR

The May 29, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report centers on agricultural commodity trends and the Midwestern weather outlook. Market analyst Mike Zuzolo notes that while wheat, cattle, and corn faced downward pressure from weak weekly export sales and shifting geopolitical conditions, soybean oil demonstrated strong performance driven by favorable crush margins, which helped stabilize the broader soybean market. Looking ahead, Zuzolo suggests that Northern Hemisphere weather uncertainties and the upcoming wheat harvest could introduce upward market potential in the latter half of June. On the agronomic front, meteorologist Eric Snodgrass explains that fluctuating spring temperatures caused atypical early corn root development in some fields he visit in the upper Midwest. He highlights a current warming trend in the Corn Belt, forecasting a generally drier June that will allow crops to accumulate essential Growing Degree Days, followed by a potentially wetter July. The broadcast also outlines upcoming University of Illinois extension events, including the Small Grains Field Day, the Weed Science Field Research Tour, and the "Sustaining Farm Legacy" series.

- Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics
- Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag Solutions

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

May 28 | Closing Market Report
https://t.co/GUho1KgAg4

The May 28, 2026 edition of Commodity Week centers on the volatility and risk management challenges currently facing the agricultural sector. Analysts Naomi Blohm and Arlan Suderman emphasize that geopolitical tensions, specifically the conflict involving Iran and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, are creating significant headline risk that could drastically impact crude oil and fertilizer prices for the 2027 crop year. Domestically and globally, unpredictable weather patterns—including hot and dry forecasts in the United States and potential production struggles in Brazil and India—are adding uncertainty to crop yields and input costs.

With December corn and November soybeans testing key technical support and resistance levels, the panelists urge farmers to establish written marketing plans to mitigate emotional decision-making. Furthermore, shifting global trade dynamics, such as Brazil overtaking Argentina in soybean meal exports and ongoing USMCA negotiations with Canada and Mexico, underscore the critical need for producers to execute objective sales strategies during seasonal price highs.

Panelists
- @naomiblohm , Total Farm Marketing
- @ArlanFF101, StoneX

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

May 28 | Closing Market Report
https://t.co/M6vwnbDA2x

The May 28, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report features discussions on commodity markets, agricultural news, and weather forecasts. Curt Kimmel reports that corn and soybean markets experienced volatility but ultimately rebounded, driven by optimism over a potential peace agreement and hopes for Chinese goodwill purchases. In policy and trade news, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed the administration's commitment to maintaining tariffs, while the National Corn Growers Association advocated for clear guidelines on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. Other significant developments include Brazil surpassing Argentina as the top exporter of soybean meal and John Deere's $99 million settlement over its right-to-repair policies. Finally, meteorologist Mike Tannura warns of historically dry conditions threatening spring wheat in the northern plains and cautions that an unusually dry forecast for early June could pose significant yield risks across the Corn Belt but that this isn't necessarily the case historically.

- Ag Markets with Curt Kimmel, https://t.co/Tkny7ziiTG
- University of Illinois Row Crop Events in June
- Jaimeson Greer on USMCA Trade Negotiations
- Ag Weather with Mike Tannura, https://t.co/cnQIjBkOHh

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

May 27 | Closing Market Report
https://t.co/5HOTx1wbKP

This Closing Market Report broadcast from the Land Grant university in Urbana-Champaign, covers recent developments in agricultural markets, fertilizer consolidation, and global weather patterns. Greg Johnson of Total Grain Marketing notes that short-term factors, such as rapid planting progress and dropping crude oil prices, are currently pressuring grain markets, though long-term uncertainties regarding summer weather and yield remain. Henrique Monaco from the farmdoc team briefly highlights the United States' strong domestic capacity for nitrogen and phosphate production, which contrasts with a high reliance on Canadian potassium imports. Finally, Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. provides a global weather outlook, detailing critical drought relief in the U.S. Southeast and Delta, a beneficial short-term dry down in the Corn Belt, and a rapidly developing El Niño that is expected to bring drier conditions to India and Indonesia in the coming weeks.

- Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, https://t.co/bPaNh0Xlku
- Consolidation in the Fertilizer Industry, https://t.co/lrItgPaVpQ
- Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, https://t.co/Ja0tJQKnSf

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

Because there is something inherently different about a phone call as compared to talking "in person". There is more that can be extracted from a person's visual presence, true. However, that distraction can cause the conversation to turn, wasting valuable time off topic. - says the radio guy.

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

For potassium, the U.S. almost exclusively depends on imports from Canada and, to a much lesser extent, Russia. In contrast, the net import reliance for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers is low —6% and 13% respectively— where domestic production is capable of meeting the majority of domestic demand. - @farmdocDaily

https://t.co/E1V6X2e9A8

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

May 26 | Closing Market Report
https://t.co/rVfLAtycWm

The May 26, 2026, Closing Market Report indicates a general decline in commodity futures, driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and favorable Midwest weather forecasts. Market analyst Naomi Blohm notes that while grain uptrends are holding, they are currently testing critical support levels amid slowing export sales and persistent South American competition. Conversely, fertilizer prices remain highly elevated due to prolonged supply chain and production disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Regarding regional crops, Dan O'Brien reports spotty moisture for Kansas wheat, projecting high abandonment rates of up to 25%, while also highlighting a growing global policy shift toward domestic biofuel production. Finally, meteorologist Don Day forecasts near-term hot and dry conditions for central Canada and the northern US Corn Belt, with contrasting precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and Gulf Coast, before weather patterns are expected to normalize in June.

- Ag Markets with @naomiblohm, https://t.co/aSWgJ9VafX
- CEO of the Fertilizer Institute Corey Rosenbusch
- Ag Energies and Kansas Wheat Abandonment
- Ag Weather with Don Day, https://t.co/xkhcAPRJTN

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

May 22 | Closing Market Report
https://t.co/Kl7uvNXNvW

The May 22, 2026, agricultural market report details significant macroeconomic pressures and favorable summer weather projections. Analyst Mike Zuzoloassesses that commodity markets must ration demand for wheat and crude oil due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is eliminating 10 million barrels of oil per day and may permanently raise energy and agricultural production costs. Zuzolo critically notes that rising bond yields point toward impending inflation and Federal Reserve rate hikes. Conversely, meteorologist Eric Snodgrass provides a largely optimistic weather outlook, forecasting a warm, drier June that historically benefits corn and soybean yields. Snodgrass concludes that current elevated ocean temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic significantly diminish the risk of severe, long-duration summer drought or heatwaves in the U.S. Midwest.

- Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, https://t.co/VFbDTC3d0J
- Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, https://t.co/N15iWfemq0

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

May 21 | Commodity Week
https://t.co/DCFKFbX74z

The May 21st episode of Commodity Week featured a panel discussion with Todd Gleason, Curt Kimmel, Dave Chatterton, and Collin Watters regarding the current state of agricultural markets. The discussion focused on several key drivers, including weather, the potential for significant Chinese agricultural purchases, and the impact of renewable fuel policies like renewable diesel on the grain market. While the panel expressed optimism for a strong market, they noted that geopolitics and international relations, particularly with China, continue to create uncertainty and volatility for producers. Panelists emphasized the need for producers to remain flexible and opportunistic in their marketing strategies, suggesting that while current conditions are supportive, market participants must navigate potential supply chain, logistical, and political challenges to maximize profitability.

Panelists: 
- Dave Chatterton, https://t.co/7KWKkIvcpC
- Curt Kimmel, https://t.co/Tkny7zhL48
- Collin Watters, https://t.co/4yMG4X1YPJ

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

May 21 | Closing Market Report
@AgMarket_Net @TstormWeather
https://t.co/45znWAv6D2

- Ag Markets with Matt Bennett, https://t.co/Tkny7ziiTG
- farmdoc 2026 Crop Budget Updates
- Ag Weather with Mike Tannura, https://t.co/cnQIjBkOHh

On this May 21, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report, host Todd Gleason reviews a mixed trading day as markets respond to ongoing planting progress and US-China trade developments. Matt Bennett of https://t.co/Tkny7ziiTG reports that while planting in Illinois is largely complete, the market is closely watching for future demand signals, specifically whether China will fulfill commitments to purchase US corn and new-crop soybeans. 

Meanwhile, Nick Paulson of the University of Illinois farmdoc team explains that while updated 2026 crop budgets show slight improvements due to higher commodity prices, they still reflect challenging long-term returns, with cost pressures from diesel fuel being partially offset by strong market pricing. 

Looking at weather, Mike Tannura of Tstorm Weather forecasts a transition to warmer temperatures following a cool, wet spring. While the US Corn Belt faces planting delays due to persistent moisture, Tannura expresses more significant concern regarding drought conditions in the US Northern Plains spring wheat region, even as he notes stable crop conditions across the Black Sea and South America. 

The program concludes with a look ahead to this week's Commodity Week, featuring analysis from Collin Waters, Dave Chatterton, and Kurt Kimmel.

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

May 20 | Closing Market Report
@worldwx

- Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, https://t.co/bPaNh0Xlku
- Logan County IL Board Imposes 12 Month Data Center Moratorium
- Strait of Hormuz Closure May Trigger Years-Long Recovery
- Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, https://t.co/Ja0tJQKnSf

https://t.co/wVgbSdvpPg

The May 20, 2026, Closing Market Report covered agricultural commodities, local infrastructure legislation, global energy supply chain disruptions, and international weather impacts. 

Market analysts noted that commodity prices initially rallied on potential Chinese agricultural purchases following a diplomatic meeting, but recently declined due to falling crude oil prices and profit-taking. In local news, the Logan County, Illinois Board bypassed a proposed 90-day freeze and instead approved a 12-month moratorium on a new data center project. On the energy front, the ongoing 80-day closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted global supplies of crude oil, gasoline, and engine lubricants, with analysts warning that a full recovery to pre-war inventory levels could extend into late 2027. 

Finally, meteorologists highlighted ongoing drought and freeze stress on U.S. winter wheat, alongside unseasonably wet conditions in Brazil and the Canadian Prairies, though warmer, more favorable planting weather is expected soon for the U.S. Corn Belt.

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

@ILextension @farmdocDaily has update the corn and soybean crop budgets.

Per acre returns for corn are higher for central Illinois and down around $10 per acre for northern and southern Illinois.  Projected returns for corn remain negative across all regions ranging from -$45 to -$53 in northern and central Illinois with larger losses of –$91 projected for southern Illinois.  Soybean return projections are increased for all regions, ranging from $30 per acre for southern Illinois to $67 per acre for central high-productivity soils.  Projected soybean returns exceed those for corn by $97 to $121 per acre. Break-even prices for corn to cover all production costs, including average cash rent, range from around $4.80 per bushel in northern and central Illinois to over $5 per bushel in southern Illinois.  Break-even prices for soybeans range from $10.95 for high-productivity soils in central Illinois to $11.38 in southern Illinois.

https://t.co/XsJiIK5FqJ

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

May 19 | Closing Market Report

This May 19, 2026, Closing Market Report covers a range of agricultural, economic, and weather updates. In the commodity markets, speculation regarding potential US-China trade deals caused a brief market rally, though prices quickly pulled back due to a lack of specific purchasing details. 

Significant agricultural industry news includes John Deere's preliminary $19.9 million settlement in a "right to repair" class-action lawsuit, as well as growing concerns from scientists over a USDA proposal to relocate vital soybean and maize seed banks out of Illinois. On the legislative front, Illinois lawmakers are considering a ban on the use of eminent domain for CO2 pipelines, while federal efforts face headwinds regarding nationwide year-round E15 fuel access and a newly proposed annual road-funding tax for electric vehicle owners. 

Meanwhile, agricultural energy markets remain volatile and captive to Middle East tensions, prompting advisors to recommend cautious, hand-to-mouth fuel purchasing strategies for farmers. 

Finally, the weather outlook highlights beneficial, albeit sometimes severe, recent rainfall across the Corn Belt and late-season snow in the West, with an active weather pattern expected to resume in the coming week.

- Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, https://t.co/aSWgJ9VafX
- Right to Repair, Seedbanks, CO2 Pipelines, Year-Round E15, EV Tax
- Ag Energies with Dave Chatterton, https://t.co/7KWKkIvKfa
- Ag Weather with Don Day, https://t.co/xkhcAPRJTN

https://t.co/o39Hngs50q

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

May 18 | Closing Market Report
https://t.co/kSkGIZuaLQ
@ckimmel3 @AgMarket_Net

The May 18, 2026, Closing Market Report highlighted a strong rebound in commodity futures, fueled by optimism over a potential $17 billion increase in Chinese agricultural purchases facilitated by the Trump administration's proposed US-China Board of Trade. 

Discussing global competitiveness, agricultural economist Joana Colussi noted that while Brazil produces corn at a lower total cost—largely through its second-crop (safrinha) system—the United States remains competitive by achieving double the average yields despite higher overhead and land expenses. 

Finally, meteorologist Mark Russo reported that favorable weather continues to support rapid planting progress in the US Corn Belt and the safrinha crop in Brazil, though severe long-term dryness continues to plague the US hard red winter wheat regions.

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

May 15 | Closing Market Report
- Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo
- @farmdocDaily Projects October ARC/PLC Payments
- @USTradeRep Posts the Board of Trade will facilitate trade with China
- Trump Supports Chinese Farm Ownership and University Students
- Ag Weather with @NutrienAgRetail Eric Snodgrass

https://t.co/GaFmevSx3G

The May 15, 2026, Closing Market Report details recent developments in agricultural commodities, U.S.-China trade relations, and weather patterns. 

Market analyst Mike Zuzolo characterizes the recent commodity sell-off as a fund correction rather than a definitive market top, highlighting severe heat impacts on the Kansas wheat crop and noting that the recent Trump-Xi meetings resulted in renewed U.S. beef export licenses to China. 

On trade policy, the U.S. Trade Representative is developing a "Board of Trade" to manage bilateral commerce in non-sensitive goods, while President Trump publicly supported Chinese nationals purchasing U.S. farmland and attending American universities to support those respective domestic markets. 

Domestically, University of Illinois economists projected upcoming average ARC and PLC payments at $58 per acre for corn, $29 for soybeans, and $47 for wheat. 

Finally, meteorologist Eric Snodgrass reported on severe dust storms in the Northern Plains and expanding drought in Nebraska, warning that forecasting the upcoming summer weather remains highly uncertain despite a rapidly developing El Niño.

[Todd E. Gleason🎙🇺🇸 @commodityweek]

@USTradeRep @business @annmarie You mean to say the exchanges? The CME Group CBOT for grains, etc?