Complete Dragon Capital

Deep value. Comprehensive investment research and analysis dossiers.

[Complete Dragon Capital @Complete_Dragon]

Don’t sleep on $OSCR. They’ve built a tech-driven healthcare platform—better data, lower claims, happier members. As the market wakes up to profitability, this could be one of the best risk/reward setups in healthtech.

Read our dossier!

https://t.co/X9jzRNrQuH

[obfuscated @obfuscated_id]

During the $OSCR Q2 conference call analyst Parker Snure from @RaymondJames asked @mtbert how he views the overall ACA marketplace for open enrollment for 2027 even though it's notably early.

Before I speak about what Mark's answer was the consensus right now and has been a ~5-10% decrease in plan selection enrollment from 2026 numbers (23.1m) down from 2025 peak of 24.3m (This contains a 0 in regards to a tailwind/guidance we could potentially see develop on any bipartisan discussions into midterms - not something to hope on just a note).

So the market is essentially anticipating OEP selections for 2027 from the marketplace in the range of 20.5-22m

Mark responds by saying that "absent any dramatic changes to the NBPP, which again, we don't think will happen, that a lot of the program integrity efforts have been built into the marketplace."

Mark goes on to say that "We think we're through all the enhanced premium tax credits impact from 2026 so we think the market has opportunity in it."

Most notably to me Mark says "we believe there's still opportunity for the market to remain stable or grow AND for us to take share."

Personally, I see this as a nugget for how to set my own early expectations for 2027 open enrollment. That means instead of 20.5-22m OEP selections that it's possible we see ~23m or more.

We already anticipated $OSCR growing in a shrinking marketplace by taking market share. What can they and will they achieve in a stable or growing marketplace while still taking market share with pricing power?

I expect we hear some more about these thoughts and their own internal goals/expectations in September.

[obfuscated @obfuscated_id]

No is the path that leads to the right yes. The right yes is far more important than any or many.

I have always believed this and @ryancohen talks about it during his interview with @amitisinvesting

In my view, Ryan doesn't get nearly enough credit for everything he's done and what his vision continues to be.

I wrote a quick piece. Anyone into investing should really study the man and his principles to try and pull some great lessons

$GME $EBAY

https://t.co/OV2HhuopDb

[obfuscated @obfuscated_id]

I hope everyone enjoyed America's 250th July 4th! 🇺🇸

For a special start to Sunday - here is everything I Learned from Studying Josh Kushner @JoshuaKushner & Thrive Capital @ThriveCapital

Josh is the founder and managing partner of Thrive Capital, one of the highest-performing venture capital firms of the last decade. Thrive has backed category-defining companies including Instagram, Stripe, OpenAI, GitHub, Spotify, Robinhood, Datadog, and Canva by building its reputation on concentration, conviction, independent thinking, and being an exceptional long-term partner to founders.

I’ve spent countless hours studying him through interviews, podcasts, books, and dissecting some of Thrive’s investment philosophy.

This thread captures the ideas and mental models that stood out most to me.

All are principles I already believe and use or are working to incorporate into my work.

1/👇 🧵

[obfuscated @obfuscated_id]

This is a long read but an important one that is shaping our framework moving forward.

This is our idea that pulls from Jim Simons confirmed by what @vladtenev is saying and observations from @aleabitoreddit in real time.

I think it is an important consideration for anyone investing right now to understand the concept discussed here. Everyone is obsessed with short-term video and audio content but this read will leave you with good perspective, I guarantee it.

https://t.co/0goV79mQHB

[Complete Dragon Capital @Complete_Dragon]

@MollySOShea Well, that’s cool. Thanks

[Complete Dragon Capital @Complete_Dragon]

@SylentTrade you already know $OSCRRRRRR

[Complete Dragon Capital @Complete_Dragon]

@MollySOShea reindustrialize tee is cool. nice idea & design.

[Complete Dragon Capital @Complete_Dragon]

@valleyinvesting @investingwithac Yes this is just in 2025 - the agreement and signing of it can be January 3rd.

[Complete Dragon Capital @Complete_Dragon]

@investingwithac 3 years isn’t out of the question if they include stricter limitations and higher proof of qualification plus a more robust sunsetting clause.

Would be mega bullish for OSCR to get that extension while they rollout their bread and butter.

[Complete Dragon Capital @Complete_Dragon]

Reminder that in Q3 conference call $OSCR noted they have taken steps and are confidently suggesting reducing up to $60m in operating expenses in 2026.

That’s a meaningful number

[Squawk Box @SquawkCNBC]

"We should create a qualified account that is the doorway to employers, government or individuals that allows them to spend health care their way," says Oscar Health CEO @mtbert:
https://t.co/Zl1fmlfibL

[Complete Dragon Capital @Complete_Dragon]

@pepemoonboy Thats crazy man. Why. Why. Just buy really solid emerging companies and hold them.

[Complete Dragon Capital @Complete_Dragon]

@parkolour @Steelmindcap Cigna doesn’t operate in a high risk marketplace. Less than 10% of their offerings are in a space that would lead to an elevated and unstable MLR.

[Oscar Health @OscarHealth]

Here are a few highlights from Oscar’s latest quarter performance, which we reported this morning.

👉 Revenue: Increased to approximately $3 billion, up from $2.4 billion year-over-year

👉 Membership: 2.1M, compared to 1.6M for the third quarter of 2024

👉 SG&A expense ratio: 17.5%, a decrease from 19.0% for the the same period in 2024

“Oscar reported third quarter results and reaffirmed 2025 guidance,” says @mtbert, CEO of Oscar Health. “Oscar is shaping the future of individual healthcare with affordable, innovative plans and a superior member experience. Our disciplined pricing and geographic expansion position us to profitably grow market share, and we are confident in our ability to expand margins and return to profitability in 2026.”

Read our full results: https://t.co/rtSZnod5kO

[Complete Dragon Capital @Complete_Dragon]

This is undoubtedly the most important chart to see for $OSCR

In this industry having the lowest MLR and doing so at the biggest differential from the previous Q during a tumultuous time showing you a very important thing

There tech stack is offering improved real time pricing models to offset high utilization costs during peek usage that impacts net income and profitability

Doing this better than anyone is their edge and will positively impact every other aspect of their business: the flywheel is in motion.

It will only IMPROVE as they grow making the wheel spin faster and more efficiently. What a great thing to see.

[Steelmind @Steelmindcap]

$OSCR is:
- The only health insurer whose MLR decreased QoQ
- The health insurer with the lowest MLR

Quite relevant given the low margin industry they are in! 💪

$CNC $UNH $HUM $MOH $ELV $CVS $CLOV

[Complete Dragon Capital @Complete_Dragon]

@TheRonnieVShow 88.5 MLR for Q3 based on utilization costs and comparative numbers from other insurers is a note to their tech stack and predictable pricing working.

[Complete Dragon Capital @Complete_Dragon]

@TheRonnieVShow $OSCR and $OPEN