Chris Compton

MFO / Not Investment Advice

[Chris Compton @compton_c]

It appears Under Armour is entering a chapter from Phil’s Shoe Dog story. Will be fun to watch it play out. Value likely to accrue once private but good r/r $uaa

[Chris Compton @compton_c]

@bhar8670 @MattJMcClintock The guy has sold everything he owns and hasn’t bought stock. Seems more likely than not

[Chris Compton @compton_c]

$uaa https://t.co/o2hxGd68kC Makes the case for a drastic change.

[Chris Compton @compton_c]

It appears Under Armour is entering a chapter from Phil’s Shoe Dog story. Will be fun to watch it play out. Value likely to accrue once private but good r/r $uaa

[Molly O’Shea @MollySOShea]

BREAKING: Inside Marc & Ben's Multi-Family Office — a16z Perennial

Chief Investment Officer, Michel Del Buono

Why wealth management is broken & how to financially prepare for a SpaceX IPO

This is a closer look at how $50M–$1B+ personal portfolios are actually constructed & managed

Important: Michel also explains why many founders make critical mistakes immediately after their first liquidity event, & how to avoid them.

We cover:
• The “no man’s land” between wealth managers & asset managers
• How founders should handle liquidity events ($50M–$1B+)
• Diversifying concentrated stock without killing upside
• Venture returns & why manager selection matters more than exposure
• Real estate, taxes, & after-tax alpha
• Why volatility is an opportunity, not a risk
• How to actually choose (and not get trapped by) a wealth manager

Special thank you to Dave Maloney

𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒

(00:00) Michel Del Buono, CIO @a16z Perennial
(01:25) The idea behind a16z Perennial
(03:38) What’s broken in wealth management
(09:05) How wealth has changed over time
(11:57) How fee structures shape portfolios
(15:26) Why single family offices are hard to run
(19:47) Who wealth management is really for
(23:26) What makes Perennial different
(22:21) Preparing for massive liquidity events: SpaceX, OpenAI...
(24:01) How to choose the right wealth manager
(26:39) Why switching firms is so hard
(28:01) How portfolios are actually built
(31:29) Why volatility is an opportunity
(32:47) Why real estate is so powerful
(34:55) Taxes and the Billionaire Tax debate
(38:46) Should you move to save taxes?
(40:59) Chamath : SPAC losses & how they affect taxes
(42:21) Secondary deals, fake Anduril SPVs & the risks
(46:16) What drives returns in Venture Capital
(49:42) Biggest Lesson from Marc Andreessen & Ben Horowitz
(51:27) The biggest mistake founders make with money
(52:53) How to invest after a big exit
(54:16) Concerns around private credit
(56:38) What big IPOs mean for markets
(58:08) Keeping up with markets
(59:35) What’s the focus this year at a16z

[Keith McCullough @KeithMcCullough]

Sad and embarrassing for America 🇺🇸

[Chris Compton @compton_c]

We’ve had several TACOs when markets (Equity and Treasury) are at critical levels. Has worked remarkably well - create the issue, feed the headline about solving the issue, get the desired response. Set up for the market to fade these going forward….and back to QE when you don’t get what you want. Interested to see if that starts today. More hard assets

[Matt McClintock @MattJMcClintock]

(1/3)
Dug back into $UAA, $UA and wouldn't you know, one highly important check was VASTLY different than three months ago. I see something you don't see. TBH, doesn't happen that often and timing here is interesting. Heavily abridged version next.

https://t.co/v9OxWEI68d

[Options King Of The Sea @SeaKingOptions]

I dont think I've ever seen a pricing skew on $SPX options like this before, currently for 100 pts OTM monday expy:

7010c 2/23: $.20
6810p 2/23: $6.50

What the....

[TheBronxViking @TheBronxViking]

S&P dealer gamma just cratered to $200M after OpEx 📉

The 2-year average is $5.2 BILLION.

That means the market’s shock absorbers just got ripped out.

Dealers aren’t hedging, they aren’t pinning strikes, they aren’t dampening moves.

Next week price can move FAST/see follow through in either direction ⚡️

Every time gamma has dropped near zero on this chart the market either ripped or dumped violently.

The direction depends on what catalyst shows up — but the SIZE of the move will be bigger than normal until dealers reposition.

Buckle up 🤝🎢

[Chris Compton @compton_c]

Sam is good. Agree here

[Chris Compton @compton_c]

https://t.co/uhCXIf6cPj

[Trevor Scott @TidefallCapital]

$UAA Favourable comments on Under Armour from Fairfax today. Seems like a turnaround play and bet on the jockey. (Audio only)

[Chris Compton @compton_c]

@hardtoleecap Nice call here. It was a matter of time

[Chris Compton @compton_c]

Most interesting part of this pod was the comment that only 5-6 apparel companies have ever gotten to $5B in Revenue. Scarcity is something I hadn’t considered in the take private thesis. Seems more likely w Sycamore and detachment from Steph as a profitable growth signal.

[Asif Suria @AsifSuria]

Matt McClintock is a tour de force when it comes to covering the retail sector and especially athletic companies like Under Armour $UA, Lululemon $LULU and Nike $NKE.

We were fortunate enough to have him join us for our next podcast and discuss how the turnarounds at these three companies and $VFC are proceeding.

@MattJMcClintock's experience covering the industry on Wall Street at Lehman Brothers and then for more than a decade Barclays shines through in this Special Situations Report podcast.

A small clip from the podcast regarding $UAA is given below and we will be publishing the full podcast on Tuesday.

[Chris Compton @compton_c]

The last 10 years we’ve seen plenty of frenzies amplified by narratives: 3D printing boom/bust, the Amazon/Whole foods death of retail trade, the SPACtacular Chamath scam, Metaverse, Green Energy death of fossil fuel ESG nonsense, CRE debt taking down the world, decentralized finance crushing banks…. Lots of narratives and not much changes. Software eating the world followed by AI eating software probably turns out just like the above. Software will be more investor friendly, like energy companies post $0 WTI. Their capital allocation will be better. SHOP TOST are interesting.

RIP to MCW - most obvious choice for the sponsor - no one cared.

[Chris Compton @compton_c]

@MattJMcClintock is crushing it at the moment. Very good perspective to weigh against consensus. Bias at the moment given $ua $USA heater since late December

[Chris Compton @compton_c]

https://t.co/Z38HPXyLqR

[Matt McClintock @MattJMcClintock]

$UAA / $UA: 3Q26 Immediate Call Postmortem

Kevin talked about the one-off items as “frustrating”. Shareholders are way past that word when talking about this company. Can only hope that this “kitchen sink” (unadjusted) sets Under Armour up to have no issues as the business gets better – unlike all the other “kitchen sinks” we have seen all the way down. “The most destructive phase of this reset is behind us” – Dave as one of his last comments as CFO.

Will admit that Kevin’s voice sounded serious when he mentioned North America is beginning to turn the corner and this quarter market the bottom of the reset. But he has fooled me many many time before. Ecommerce conversion is up and factory house performance is improving. Focus in wholesale remains building the right partnerships. Encouraged by how fall order book is shaping up. Feel like we have heard this story before but not with the positive KPI’s from DTC. Wonder if Lance (IR) saw how that helped $VFC (where he used to work) last week so made sure to include that commentary.

Unleashing Intentionality – Kevin’s new buzz phrase. Made further management changes to make everything more efficient, cohesive, and faster. Talked up leadership in answer to first Q&A question about “confidence”.

They are done with the 25% SKU reduction plan they launched in FY25. 30 fabrics are driving 80% of their volume. Under Armour has five products in the NPD top 10, nine in the top 25 – bears really need to reconcile this fact with their view the “brand is dead” and after YEARS of challenges at the company.

Kevin called out performance in products he always seems to mention: baselayer, Icon fleece, etc. The women’s Meridian franchise is “gaining traction”. Sell through of newer franchise improving year over year. Full price realization trending higher.

More “elevated” products coming in spring/summer 26. Icon mentioned once again along with an “improved” women’s Vanish Elite. Of course, Kevin just had to mention the StealthForm hat and No Weigh backpack yet again – really wish he could start calling out some other “new” innovation consistently like how the NEOLAST technology mentioned last quarter was noticeably not mentioned this quarter (although maybe it was “captured” in the generic baselayer commentary). I get the need to be consistent with platforms like Icon and Vanish but would be nice to hear more about why product is different.

Assert 11 performs well and delivered higher ASP vs Assert 10 as predicted. Am somewhat amazed by that comment as it almost immediately went on sale right after launch but maybe the level of discount was not as bad as the prior iteration. Kevin called out the HB-LOW as “off the charts” price to value and the “gateway” to court shoes and sportswear. While it is a cool looking shoe, most of us probably thought Curry was likely a better gateway that never seemed to get utilized (albeit super expensive).

$JD Sports and Sports Direct are getting behind the brand and relationship has never been stronger. Kevin thinks they are the #1 “underground” brand in France. The region is getting more promotional though, particularly in the UK. “A lot of people are just buying business”.

“Not interested in being a fashion company.” – it is somewhat refreshing to hear an athletic apparel company explicitly say this. Pay attention $LULU.

*These are our unabridged quick thoughts and notes from the call. We get them out as soon as possible after the call ends. Management has given some topics to dig deeper into and will circle back afterwards with much more in depth work on what was mentioned. You can find that work (and more on Under Armour and other retail/consumer research) at the website link in our profile or in the first reply.

[Chris Compton @compton_c]

Maybe too far to fast here but 10% EBIT margins on $4B is a $4B mkt cap. Seems pretty reasonable.

[Chris Compton @compton_c]

https://t.co/XUIfstkP9w

[Alec MacGillis @AlecMacGillis]

What happened to Kevin Plank and Under Armour?
In 2016, the company had enjoyed 26 quarters of >20% growth. Plank got Baltimore to provide $660 million in public financing for a huge waterfront district w/ 10,000 UA employees in a series of skyscrapers.

Now, the district is a fraction of what was envisioned, w/ only 1,500 employees. Plank has pulled out of the development. And UA paid $434 million to settle a class-action lawsuit alleging shareholder fraud.

This is such a strong @BaltimoreBanner story on a man and company that were supposed to transform the city: https://t.co/cxqFPHzchc

[Chris Compton @compton_c]

Interesting view that I had not considered

[Morgan Downey @morgan_downey]

The most important energy chart of 2026 is hidden in plain sight.

US Propane inventories are telling a story that ends with a massive supply shock for Natural Gas and a floor for WTI Crude Oil.

What's happening?

Record Production: US propane output has hit all-time highs.

Nobody chooses to drill for and produce propane. Most propane is produced indirectly as a byproduct of nat gas and oil production.

Storage Crisis: Inventories are near 100M barrels. We are dangerously close to hitting tank tops (physical capacity of underground caverns) by Summer 2026.

The Doomsday Mechanism: If propane storage fills, there is nowhere to put the liquid byproduct. Midstream operators will issue Force Majeure. Result: Permian & Eagle Ford Wet Gas wells MUST shut in.

You cannot produce oil/gas if you cannot clear the propane.

Possibly on of the most bullish setup in history for nat gas prices.

A forced shut-in of associated gas starves the US market of methane.

Dry Gas producers (who don't have this propane/liquids issue) become kings.

A forced shut-in of Permian wells removes millions of barrels of oil from the market, putting a hard floor under WTI.

Summary: watch for a propane super contango and even possible negative spot prices. If summer time-spreads collapse, the propane containment wall is hitting, and Nat Gas could go to the moon.

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

Druckenmiller on what traits the best investors have in common

"They are extremely competitive. They have an unbelievable will to win. If you look at anybody with a great investment record, for whatever reason, the people without passion cant compete with them. They have passion, and they are just willing to work harder."