The second leg of inflation has arrived, and Powell is in quite the conundrum:
- Raise rates further: Soaring $1.1T interest expense compounds, debt spiral accelerates.
- Hold, hope inflation cools: Interest expense as % of GDP at 25y highs & growing at 5.25%.
- Cut into an inflation spike: Commodities + assets moon. Inflation becomes entrenched. Bonds crushed. Short-term yields pinned in attempt to erode real debt burdens.
Reaccelerating inflation at 5.25% Fed Funds with 7% deficits and Federal Debt/GDP at 120%.
Unprecedented.
Got #Bitcoin ?
I just published a new business blog The Dark Side of Sales about how to prevent the unintended consequences that powerful incentives can create. While a strong incentive plan is necessary to motivate and retain the best salespeople, it can go awry if not carefully managed. 🧵
Not a single person took to the streets to rally around the tsar. Instead, crowds of spectators came out to witness the excitement. They did not take anyone’s side, but many observed the cowardice of the police and security services with evident glee https://t.co/yFkYSldT33
The last few days in AI development is insane.
Google X Adobe
ChatGPT new UI
Midjourney 3d model
ChatGPT Plugins release
Coca-Cola new Ad with AI
Google new Universal Translator AI
Claude gets better than ChatGPT-4
Everything you need to know & how it'll change many things:🧵
If businesses lose money on deposit, then every business in the country will move all cash above $250K into Treasuries and we’ll have a system-wide bank run at Twitter speed.
They’ll tell their banker, “the only counterparty I want is the US Treasury.”
The slope of technology’s value creation and positive impact on humanity has never been steeper - but wars and economic cycles remain. As founders / investors, embrace the first - but survive the second. BG^2.