☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽

Unicycle jouster, native Klingon speaker, squirrel 🥌 arbitrator, currently transcribing A Love Supreme to the key of æ.

Whee / Whim

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

Crypto: today's divide between the skeptical and the credulous.

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

@leadlagreport timberrrrrr!

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

@emilymiller Shi no güd spelur sawri

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

@profplum99 @XavierFalco777 @DannyDayan5 @dampedspring https://t.co/QK51RnE4Bg

[Alpha_Ex_LLC @Alpha_Ex_LLC]

There's so much to say about this chart. it shows to very related measures: the ratio of the single stock VIX (VIXEQ) to the $VIX versus SPX 1m implied correlation.
The higher the ratio the lower the implied correl and you can see we are an absolute extreme.
You might say the market is "complacent" by way of the record low IC. Agree the sense that there is a disregard for the potential for a macro shock that hits all assets at once. Said shock would move the current level down and to the right in the chart.
But what's really driving the ratio up and IC down is the level of single stock implied volatility. The number of stocks enveloped in a "spot up, vol up" dynamic is significant. Thus, the VIXEQ is higher now than at the peak of the market shock in late March!
When a stock surges, investors who want to stay long but are worried the rug may be pulled out start looking at call options. They allow you to walk away if things reverse. That demand forces implied vol higher. From the option seller's standpoint, stocks are exhibiting huge one-day "up shocks" that are both difficult and costly to hedge. That gets priced in.
I am reposting my Tweet here on "SK Hijinks" because it' may be the strongest example of the feedback loop between price, implied vol and the overlay of short gamma products.
I think we are getting closer to a tipping point and there's a sharp, tradable reversal forthcoming.
https://t.co/jOrMKeNG13

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

G&K: https://t.co/YRItS9Kjcj)
the economist article: https://t.co/YaKFRUweQ8

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

.@profplum99 The Economist picked up the passive index flows pumping up the biggest stocks banner, even using the b-word, writing an entire article summarizing Gabaix and Koijen .

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

@khamenei_ir That is a miraculous act of time travel.

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

@PreetBharara What are the potential outcomes if the Comey grand jury wasn’t properly informed? #askpreet

https://t.co/rceD4wQld6

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

@Barchart I wonder what that would’ve looked like in ‘08

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

.@universalhub State Street T station exit at Old South Church closed off at 100’ radius with police tape. Suspicious object.

[MBTA @MBTA]

State Street Station: The entrance on Washington St (next to the Old South Meeting House) is temporarily closed at the request of Transit Police. There is currently no impact to train service through the station.

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

.@profplum99 the sudden appearance of 3mm native-born 16-19 y.o.s is going to monkey with BLS stats for awhile
https://t.co/mr19qLuHcU

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

.@tracyalloway is running with a pretty rarefied crowd:
https://t.co/WCCUmcUtae

A perfect sentence about pet rocks, crude and feral cats.

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

.@vixologist New paper claims 1.0 Sharpe from capturing volatility risk premium, adding contango slope and sizing based on level.
https://t.co/Zxhbj0pizh

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

.@TheStalwart: The House passed Jones Act II, forcing components of transportation projects to be shipped on American carriers:
https://t.co/E3WYOQ5SEo

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

@izakaminska @threadreaderapp unroll

[Izabella Kaminska @izakaminska]

🧵1/ I wonder how many people realise that what's really going on with stablecoins is a massive US statecraft play to re-dollarize the world on its own terms. You could even call it a "re-stablization op" (yep - there's a gag in there).

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

.@vixologist Study: Global FOMO reducing vol by ~2%
https://t.co/kvkAXNf2k9

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

@leadlagreport If you blinked, you might have missed the junk debt meltdown.
Now? All is well

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

... and the fees!
"...plans are charged $5 per employee, as well as a management fee of 0.25% of plan assets. Those who choose to allocate to its product pay an additional 0.5% fund management fee and 5% of the gains on withdrawal."

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

.@profplum99 4:1 levered 401(k)s. The wonders of our age.
https://t.co/VvthFmvq4L

[☣ ɹǝʞuɐɔ ʇuǝɔsǝɯnʇ 🚽 @conman0321]

@vixologist Congratulations to all involved!