connell83

[connell83 @connell83]

@Real_Politik101 But the US invoked the war by wanting Ukraine to join Nato, against their promise of the "not one inch eastward" assurance discussed during negotiations over German reunification in 1990. Not to mention Biden blowing up the Nordstream pipeline.

[Simon Dixon @SimonDixonTwitt]

TRANSLATION:

Big Energy and OPEC need more time to keep the strait closed while oil and LNG executives close more deals, and the WEF gets its manufactured inflation, recession, and distressed-asset-stripping crisis.

Once we’re done, we’ll announce the deal we already agreed to.

In the meantime, you deal with the inflation.

You will own nothing and be happy.

“Draining the swamp” meant draining the global middle class that doesn’t own the appreciating assets.

Meanwhile, you get distracted with left-versus-right politics, capitalism vs. communism, manufactured immigration, and fake wars on terror while we price you out of the markets.

You can pretend elections matter while the financial-industrial complex sets the policy and tells you when the strait will reopen through our insurers.

Go distract yourself at a Tommy Robinson rally and vent some frustration there.

It will make no difference, and we’ll use it to build your social credit score, pre-crime social media arrest data, and digital ID profile.

Theatre.

[Neoptolemus @NeoptolemusX]

It’s one thing to see a graph saying, “12 million illegal migrants entered Europe since 2008.”

It’s another thing to actually see it.

Every blip in this animation represents 100 people.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇮🇳 Factory workers in India are wearing head-mounted cameras so AI can watch exactly how humans do physical work. Every hand movement, every adjustment, every shortcut.

The workers are training their own replacements in real time, on the job, getting paid to do it.

The most honest description of this is also the most uncomfortable one.

Source: longliveai on IG

[Josh Hunt @iAmJoshHunt]

I want to talk about the scale of what’s coming for the UK over the next three months. Because I don’t think many people have joined the dots yet.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for over five weeks. Before this war, 135 ships passed through it every day. Now it’s 5 to 7. Over 600 vessels are still stranded. Iran has mined the strait, is charging tolls, and controlling who passes. The CEO of Abu Dhabi’s national oil company said it this week: “The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled. That is coercion.”

Two thirds of Gulf crude has no alternative route. 14 million barrels a day behind a 21-mile chokepoint.

Energy bills are forecast to jump 20% in July. From £1,641 to nearly £2,000. The second major energy shock in four years. Petrol up over 15%. Diesel up nearly 30%. Wholesale gas rose 75% in under four weeks.

Food inflation could hit 8% by June and 9% by December. Academics advising DEFRA say it could reach 12%. UK food prices are already 38% higher than before Covid. We’re only 62% self-sufficient in food. We import 60% of our nitrogen fertiliser. Red diesel for farming has surged 60%. Average arable farm income has fallen to £17,000, the lowest in over 20 years.

Yesterday, China announced it’s halting all sulphuric acid exports from May. Sulphuric acid is essential for phosphate fertilisers, copper mining, oil refining, and battery manufacturing. A third of the world’s sulphur was already blocked by the Hormuz closure. Now the world’s largest exporter has pulled the other lever at the same time. The fertiliser crisis just got significantly worse, heading straight into planting season.

Before the war, markets expected rate cuts. Now they’ve priced in two rate rises. Over 1,500 mortgage products have been pulled. Two year fixes have jumped from 4.8% to 5.5%. Nearly £1,000 a year extra on a £200k mortgage. Gone in weeks.

Flights are next. A quarter of UK jet fuel comes from Kuwait, behind the strait. In early April, major carriers said they had five to six weeks of reserves. That clock is running. Ryanair’s CEO has warned 5-10% of summer flights could be cancelled.

Iran’s strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, which handles 30% of the world’s helium, is estimated to take 3 to 5 years to repair. Helium is critical for semiconductors and MRI machines. That’s not a disruption. That’s structural damage.

Chemical and steel manufacturers are imposing surcharges of up to 30%. Analysts are warning of permanent deindustrialisation. European gas storage was at just 30% after a harsh winter. If the strait stays restricted through summer, Europe can’t refill for next winter.

In Ireland, fuel protests shut down Dublin for four days. The army was deployed. Over 100 fuel stations ran dry, with warnings of 500 by end of the week. Downing Street has held talks on the potential for mass protests here.

The OECD has downgraded the UK more than any other G7 nation. Growth slashed from 1.2% to 0.7%. Inflation forecast nearly doubled to 4%, with some saying it could breach 5%.

Starmer and Trump spoke this week about military options to reopen the strait. The UK is leading a 30+ nation coalition. But the ceasefire is already fracturing. Iran re-closed the strait over Israeli strikes on Lebanon. Reeves is boxed in by fiscal rules. Higher gilt yields are eating her headroom. And I haven’t heard a credible plan from anyone in Westminster.

Energy. Food. Fertiliser. Aviation fuel. Mortgages. Industrial chemicals. Semiconductors. Shipping. Government borrowing. Political stability. All under stress. All compounding.

This country imports 44% of its energy. Has almost no gas storage. Imports most of its food and fertiliser. Gets a quarter of its jet fuel from behind a mined strait.

Every structural weakness built up over 20 years is being stress tested at once.

The next three months aren’t going to be uncomfortable. They’re going to be defining

[Mark Kaplan @markkaplan20]

You're taking a statin.

You think you're safe.

I thought so too.

I was a professional tennis player. Ranked #117 in the world.

My cholesterol was "normal" my entire adult life.

At 52, I had a heart attack.

What I discovered next changed everything. 🧵

[Alan MacLeod @AlanRMacLeod]

What kind of strike? A lightning strike? An employment dispute?

This kind of language is how the BBC changes a war crime into an act of nature.

[Alexandra Semenova @alexandraandnyc]

wealth managers putting your money in an index fund

[Murray Hill Guy @MurrayHillGuy1]

I don’t have much desire to be so rich so I can buy a Rolex, have a Lambo or take trips to Dubai.

I want to be rich so I can control my time and go to the gym at 1pm on a Monday without worrying.

Sit at a Cafe with espresso and relax for an hour

So I can cook meals at home with clean ingredients.

Spend on my beautiful mid, family and friends without worrying about a budget.

That's my idea of a rich life, not the fake consumerist idea shoved down my throat to suffer in the suburbs.

[connell83 @connell83]

@hridoyreh It's like the days when your router was down, but you couldn't get any internet to figure out what the problem might me. Before phones had internet.

[connell83 @connell83]

@adam3us @_Adrian Or maybe it's because long term BTC holders have lost faith to the Core 30. The majority of people don't want 100kb - you are in the minority.

[connell83 @connell83]

@BobLoukas This last 18 months, all respect has gone. You also sold a third of your stack at 80k.

[connell83 @connell83]

@taipancapital What if it's in plain hex code? Literally showing on any Blockchain browser. A simple copy and paste of one line of code.

[connell83 @connell83]

@taipancapital They wouldn't need to if the data was small enough. I'd be happy with 3kb. That's enough for layer 2's, ARK etc. 100kb is simply a massive overkill and you have to question why so much when it's not needed for anything.

[connell83 @connell83]

@taipancapital If it happens, most people will know what block it was on and what transaction.

[connell83 @connell83]

@taipancapital If I'm criticizing bitcoin, why would you think it's in my interest?

[connell83 @connell83]

@taipancapital Yes sure. Without a doubt. Let's see. I trust you will run a node of it's mined into the Blockchain. A layman can literally copy the op return code into a hex converter and are the image. It's the same as opening an image on your hard drive with ms paint. No difference.

[connell83 @connell83]

@taipancapital No thanks. I'm just pointing out that Bitcoin has a fundamental problem... The miners have the power, the miners will choose the most profitable node version. The most profitable node version may be the worst for the longevity of bitcoin.

[connell83 @connell83]

@taipancapital Well of course I know that! That's my point. I'd prefer to run core 29 but I have to accept the BS that core 30 allows on after consensus.