Conor Parle

Economist - covering Eurozone and UK, formerly @ecb and Central Bank of Ireland. Interested in text mining, Eintracht, St. Pats and misc. sport. 🇮🇪 in 🇬🇧.

[Conor Parle @conorparle]

@minevian @florianederer Oh I agree with you! Best format possible given limited number of match days, ideal world if more match days available would be fewer but larger groups, would reduce the disparity between worst and best teams in each pot as each pot would be smaller.

[Conor Parle @conorparle]

@minevian @florianederer Nothing necessarily wrong! Just shows the element of luck - Pot 2 that time had France and England creating possible v tough groups

Compare the pot 1,2,4 combination of Netherlands, France and Greece to an equally possible combo from those pots of Hungary, Finland, Faroe Islands

[Conor Parle @conorparle]

@ClausVistesen Kind of funny that post a “dovish to neutral” DMP and baileys comments we are trading at more hikes priced in

[Conor Parle @conorparle]

@ClausVistesen Won’t lie, you guys going out to the Czechs after us blowing a 2-0 lead while well on top against them as well as blowing the lead in penalties further adds to the sting of last Thursday…

[Conor Parle @conorparle]

@CrisisStudent We are basically experiencing a lagged version of what happened with the BoE

Member paragraphs meant individual hawkish views were frontloaded, just had to wait for the flow of speakers to see the same for the ECB

[Conor Parle @conorparle]

@danobrien20 It’s there in chart 15!

[Conor Parle @conorparle]

@fwred @CrisisStudent @Lagarde Think severe and adverse have monetary policy assumptions in line with baseline rather than no change (subtle but important difference from stance perceptions!)

[Conor Parle @conorparle]

@jimmy__mcintosh Was one of the most insane subways I’ve ever seen, felt like it existed in a different universe

[Conor Parle @conorparle]

@ClausVistesen Bring on April’s SAFE survey (great example of the benefits of switching to quarterly!)

[Conor Parle @conorparle]

@jimmy__mcintosh Brilliant shout. Gaffneys isn’t far from there and en route to the city centre and is also class. If you are more central later try cumiskeys on constitution hill - still can get a pint of beamish for under a fiver. Wellington house (Glynn’s) also worth a shout, bit more chaotic.

[Ben Zaranko @BenZaranko]

Less than a week left to apply for this, the most exciting job in UK fiscal policy available right now.

(Chair of the OBR is a close second).

https://t.co/UIkuBX1quy

[Conor Parle @conorparle]

@ClausVistesen Increasingly of this opinion, helps spoofers generate obvious spoof, but clear efficiency gains in fields you already know (mainly because what makes zero sense becomes super obvious)

[Conor Parle @conorparle]

@ClausVistesen Considering the “upper percentile” forecasts in the macro projections sensitivity analysis in Dec had an average of 1.21 in 2026 knocked 0.1pp off inflation alone - this really adds to the case for a reasonably firm inflation downgrade in the March projections

[Thorsten Benner @thorstenbenner]

Good to make a mental note of those with this peculiar mix of supreme confidence & getting things wrong.

[Conor Parle @conorparle]

@ClausVistesen December was overly adjusted upwards, Sept forecasts look way more credible

[Edmund Heaphy @edmundheaphy]

Fascinated that this guy manages to take the most negative and pessimistic take on everything EU-related, be it monetary policy instruments or troop deployments

[Conor Parle @conorparle]

@kkkeelers @S_McGuirk180 Hopefully at least one more card tomorrow now, great two days!

[Conor Parle @conorparle]

@MrMBrown @darioperkins This year is the year of simultaneous dual x and dual y axis charts, I can feel it

[Conor Parle @conorparle]

@jimmy__mcintosh Just got this one on my feed which is slop quoting completely unrelated slop