contrarian(영진)

謀事在人 成事在天

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

Global central banks are rapidly accumulating gold.

At the same time, they are aggressively selling their US Treasuries.

If this trend continues, it will have MAJOR implications for the US Financial System.

A thread 🧵

[Leaf Meta 🇰🇷 @leafmeta]

🚀 오픈소스 기반의 PlayGraph.md를 공개합니다!

머리속으로만 상상하기 어려운 물리나 수학 개념도,
👀 눈으로 보면서 이해할 수 있게 만들어주는 애니메이션 마크다운 뷰어입니다.

🎬 마크다운으로 표현되는 애니메이션 중심의 뷰를 지원하며,
🧠 생성형 AI를 통해 나만의 주제에 맞춰 애니메이션을 확장하고
🌐 개인 지식을 공유받아 더욱 풍부한 지식 애니메이션 뷰를 만들어갈 수 있습니다.

💡 개선 아이디어나 제안은 Issue 리포트에 부탁드려요.
🙌 많은 관심 부탁드립니다 — 진짜 “안 써보면 손해”!

👉 지금 바로 다운로드하고 #PlayGraph 세계를 경험해보세요!

https://t.co/CgeWlOwkwz

#OpenSource #AI #Markdown #Animation #EduTech #KnowledgeGraph #LearningTool #GenerativeAI #Visualization #PlayGraph

[Jeffrey P. Snider @JeffSnider_EDU]

🚨 Rising Concerns with Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) 🚨

🧵Thread🧵👇

1/ CLOs Unmasked:
At its core, a CLO is a bundle of corporate loans turned into a financial product. A form of asset-backed security, those were mass produced to be a remedy for shrinking Treasury issues in the '90s. CLOs are the progeny of the 2000s' mortgage debt structures that spelled economic disaster.

2/ Securitization's Double-Edged Sword:
Securitization – converting stagnant loans into marketable securities – allowed financial entities to tap into the repo market. But, just like mortgages in the 2000s, today's over-reliance on CLOs raises red flags.

3/ The Collateral Importance:
Financial collateral is the linchpin of our global financial system, connecting cash lenders and borrowers. Contrary to popular perception, even though the govt issues tons of debt, the monetary system has been plagued by a shortfall of high-quality, liquid safe assets. The post-08 CLO boom has been partly in response.

4/ Not All Collaterals Are Equal:
Despite massive federal govt deficits, not all Treasuries are available as collateral. The system's shift towards riskier assets, like CLOs, is walking on thin ice.

5/ Banking and CLOs:
Today, banks and Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs) are deeply entwined with CLOs. The recent Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report unveiled a startling rise in loans to NBFIs, spotlighting potential systemic risks.

6/ Liquidity Concerns:
With the CLO market showing signs of drying up and about 40% of issuers not pricing new deals this year, coupled with banks' growing reluctance to buy them, liquidity crunches might be imminent. This very well could be one crucial part of recent collateral strains, especially if senior CLO tranches have already become illiquid.

7/ Alarming Forecasts:
Over half-a-trillion dollars of leveraged loans are maturing soon. The banking system outwardly right now appears stable, but underneath lie vulnerabilities that can’t be ignored.

8/ The Final Word:
As banks hesitate with CLOs and the collateral landscape becomes uncertain, vigilance is paramount. History has shown the consequences of overlooking the signs. We must stay informed, dissect the complex, and prepare for potential financial turbulence.

[이코노마카세 @economakase]

■ 꼬인 타래를 풀어내라

세상의 가장 시스템적인 채권 시장에서
위험하고 복잡하며, 항상 터진다고 알려져있는 종류의
포지셔닝의 인기가 증가하고 있습니다.

결국 터지게 되면, 모두는 FED를 찾을 수 밖에 없을 겁니다.

채권시장의 '꼬인 타래 풀기'가 다가옵니다.

(출처는 맨 아래)

[Paola Rojas 🐝 @paola_rojas]

Copper is the most important metal.

Quite simply: no copper, no energy transition.

Yet its price has fallen since ATH in 2022, as the world decelerates and struggles with inflation.

But this also creates a brilliant contrarian setup for investors. So...

Here are 5 reasons to add (more) copper to your portfolio:

Let's go!

1) Rising demand for EVs and decarbonisation fuels the need for metals used in electrification, including:

• lithium
• copper
• nickel
• cobalt
• graphite

I expect significant shortfalls across the board.

But copper has unique challenges.

JP Morgan has said we could reach a demand of 32MT by 2033 from 25MT this year. Citi thinks we're headed for $15K/t which would certainly incentivize more exploration and investment in mines.

So despite short-term choppiness, the long-term outlook appears extremely bullish.

📊 @thinkcopper

2) Copper is a core component of modern batteries

Copper is the battery's current collector, as the efficient conductor it is.

In an NCA* (Nickel-Cobalt-Aluminum Oxide), a popular type of li-ion battery, 17% is copper! Actually, that's more than any other metal.

📊 @cenmag

*Other types of batteries have different compositions so percentages will vary

3) As a metal market globally, copper is already big (currently 3rd in value)

Coming after iron ore and gold, it has nearly doubled since 2016 - yet still has upside for investors.

But big markets can find fast growth challenging.

Kind of like an elephant sprinting!

As evidence, using separate analyses by S&P and Visual Capitalist show that when comparing 2021 to 2022, the market shrank**

**These analyses use production figures from USGS and other sources, and then use the spot price at the time of analysis, in this case, for 2021 used $4.47/lb and 2022, $3.73/lb

4) The discovery rate has plummeted

Fewer deposits are being found every year, and exploration budgets are still in a rut.

This is worrying.

Identifying new copper deposits is capital-intensive and takes years. Decades even.

And to make matters worse... permitting delays and ESG worries have stalled the development of large deposits ready to be built, such as Resolution Copper in the US.

📊 @SPGMarketIntel

5) Copper output from the largest producers has been falling

Since Jul 2020, COVID, political shifts and industrial actions in Chile have reduced production and caused uncertainty for supply going forward.

Peru, the second producer, has also endured social unrest and strikes at its mines in past months, further reducing production.

Both countries have started to recover but the worries have not yet fully subsided.

📊 @synergyrescap

That's it for today!

Copper has a bright role in a net zero world.

These ideas can help you in the decision to allocate (more) capital to copper miners.

Summary
5 reasons to invest in (more) copper and copper stocks
1) Electrification!
2) Batteries🧡copper
3) Market growth is uncertain
4) Discovery rate is at terribly low levels
5) Copper output has fallen in the largest-producing countries

#EnergyTransition #Copper #Decarbonization

[Brian Feroldi @BrianFeroldi]

If you pick stocks, you MUST understand SEC filings.

But, the forms are ridiculously confusing!

Here are the 9 SEC filings every investor should know (and how to find them):

[디벨로퍼 @develerm99]

테슬라 관련

[Mac10 @SuburbanDrone]

The greatest financial scandal of 2022:

The collapse of the FTX crypto Ponzi scheme and arrest of Sam Bankman.

Investors can breathe a sigh of relief in 2023.

[_발렌 @_Valentino]

졸탄의 새로운 기고문이 올라왔습니다. 공유해 주신 @yang_youngbin 님께 심심한 감사인사 올리며, 빠르게 내용 공유해 보겠습니다.

이번에도 약간 발칙한 내용들이 있네요 ㅎㅎㅎ
좀 길지만 쉽게 번역해 보았습니다.

의역, 오역 많아여~

[contrarian(영진) @contrar47783137]

@_Valentino 너무 귀한자료. 용어도 어려워서 끙끙 앓고 있었는데 너무 고맙습니다.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Wall Street's Biggest Bear Reveals His 2023 Forecast: 4,150, To 3,000, To 3,900... And Then A Boom https://t.co/HkZKCWXMFL

[ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA]

🇺🇸 Performance

Will the Nasdaq continue to track the 1972-75 DJIA analog?
👉 https://t.co/Lu9xTiGXkK

h/t @BofAML #markets #nasdaq $ndx $qqq #ndx #dow #dowjones
$djia #stocks #stockmarket #equities #investing #assetallocation

[Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts]

The #Fed has a long history of F$%*# stuff up by hiking #rates and then having to quickly reverse #policy. (With no apologies, of course, for the devastation they repeatedly cause.)

[contrarian(영진) @contrar47783137]

@min_tank_ 양털깎기로 먹고사는거 끝인가요?

[Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets]

Inflation visualized 👀

[오롱 @xiiaorongg]

개비스콘 아저씨 아 ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ 미칠것같아

[Kevin C. Smith, CFA @crescatkevin]

Today’s low rig count, like in the past, should mark the bottom for oil prices and E&P stocks.

https://t.co/G1tVM2625S