Greg Cook

Employee and Private Equity shareholder of a top 10 new home construction company in the North Texas residential market since 2010.

[Greg Cook @cookgreg]

@Million_Sancet I’m a long term investor largely and believe if the news of stays constructive thru H2 2027 we can see a $10B+ MC.

[Greg Cook @cookgreg]

Wallstreet has never been above reproach in these sorts of disgusting behaviors. On the flip side, I got to add more of some of my top holdings in $SIVEF, $LITE and $AAOI on sale in the panic. Thesis is intact.

[Greg Cook @cookgreg]

@aleabitoreddit I continued to scale in to my positions today in $SIVEF, $LITE, $AAOI with eyes on 2027 rather than next week(NFA). Thank you for your continued research and analysis Serenity. Us retail folks really appreciate all you do!

[Greg Cook @cookgreg]

Today is the type of day you should ask yourself,...do I know what I own? long $AAOI, $LITE, $SIVEF . NFA

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Photonics is backed by actual revenue numbers and it's an architectural shift championed by $NVDA.

Quantum barely has any revenue.

$LITE is completely sold out for the next 2 years (per $POET AGM) likely starting into 2029. Lumentum is so strained that they buy CW lasers off competitors (earnings transcript)

$COHR is bottlenecked, so they buy EML off Lumentum.

Then, $AAOI is coming in with Made-in-America independent CW capacity, are projecting $1.4B/quarterly revenue ending H1 2027 of a stupid $9.3B MC today.

So all the CW capacity from independent players who have it now like $AAOI or $SIVE are likely to become scarce resources.

Many other hyperscalers have already started LTA discussions (per Trendforce). And players like $AMD are currently talking with players such as $AAOI (Rosenblatt channel checks).

Thematically, next 2 years is 9x TAM to US$154B per GS reports, especially with 16x/45x dollar content increase in scale out/scale up.

Then there's the overall thematic AI drop from $META, which is widely misunderstood because people conflate what "excess capacity" means. And as UBS mentioned, Meta planning a cloud offering is NOT NEW NEWS.

Bloomberg just has a tendency to publish information that causes doom drops across the semi sector like Nvidia export controls a few months back.

But I'm familiar with what I'm holding so I'm confident in these numbers playing out.

Especially when all the major players are sold out, the fundamentals catch up eventually.

[Greg Cook @cookgreg]

@RosannaInvests Thank you. So they priced in the hole about 12% or $5.85 (57 SEK)which makes sense. Hopefully we got more US institutions involved now. But $72MM isn't all that much to them and points to more good things to come, hence the over subscription😁

[Greg Cook @cookgreg]

@andiamonow $SIVE staircase up, elevator down like all good growth stocks who like to shake and bake weaker hands

[Greg Cook @cookgreg]

The Sell side has rarely added value for me the last 30 years…Rosanna puts it in proper perspective. Good points all.

[Rosanna Prestia, MBA @RosannaInvests]

And so it begins. 💃

The sell side does not lead. It ratifies. By the time a bulge-bracket bank raises its target citing an earnings-upgrade surge, the upgrade cycle is already months old and the people doing the work were positioned for it.

This is the pattern every cycle. The data shows up first. The flow positions for it. The narrative catches up. The target revision is the last step, not the first.

None of this is a top signal by itself. But know the order. The bank is describing the move, not calling it. The edge was in seeing the earnings inflection before it had a price target stapled to it.

Watch what gets ratified next. 🧐

[Greg Cook @cookgreg]

@RosannaInvests @Speculator_io You are spot on. Well said.

[Greg Cook @cookgreg]

My current top 12 holdings (in alphabetical order)
AAOI
APP
AVGO
GS
LITE
LPKFF
META
MP
NBIS
SE
SIVEF
TMDX
I typically have 30-33 positions at any given time adding to my new favs on days like today when the position is not full and will trim when some get parabolic.
NFA

[Greg Cook @cookgreg]

@andiamonow I added to $SIVEF at $8.89

[Greg Cook @cookgreg]

@andiamonow Well said. $SIVE my biggest position in long term and short term accounts for me. Thank you!

[Greg Cook @cookgreg]

Excellent breakdown and balanced. I’m long the same names.

[Rosanna Prestia, MBA @RosannaInvests]

🚨Everyone is still buying the chips. The bottleneck already moved.

A GPU that computes in nanoseconds and waits microseconds for data is a stranded asset. At 1.6T speeds, copper runs out of physics. The constraint on AI is no longer how fast you can think. It's how fast you can move what you thought.

Jensen has now said it twice in three months.

At GTC in March: "Is copper going to still be important? The answer is yes... Are you going to scale up optical? Yes. Are you going to scale out optical? Yes... We need a lot more capacity for copper. We need a lot more capacity for optics. We need a lot more capacity for CPO."

Last week at Computex, on Marvell's stage: "Optics where you must, copper where you can." Then he called Marvell the next trillion-dollar company and the optical complex repriced within days. The same keynote put a date on the handoff: 200G per lane is the last generation where copper is sufficient. After that, optics takes the rack.

Translation: not copper OR light. Copper now, light next, unprecedented amounts of both. 🔥

The chain is unavoidable: AI tokens are profitable → more GPUs → more bandwidth → copper hits its wall → photonics becomes the chokepoint.

And the smart money stopped debating. Follow the closed deals:

→ $NVDA has committed at least $6.5B to photonics in three months: $2B into Lumentum, $2B into Coherent, a $500M stake in Corning, and a piece of Ayar Labs' $500M round. Direct investments to secure its own light supply.
→ $MRVL paid $3.25B for Celestial AI, up to $5.5B with milestones, to build what its CEO calls a silicon photonics powerhouse.
→ $CRDO closed DustPhotonics two weeks ago. Ciena bought CPO startup Nubis for $270M.

North of $10B of strategic capital locked up one supply chain in under a year. Capital like that doesn't chase a theme. It secures a bottleneck.

LAYER 1: WAFER. Every laser starts as a crystal.
🟠 $AXTI: the InP substrate leader. The first chokepoint in the stack.
🟡 $IQE: compound-semi epiwafers feeding the laser makers. Speculative, but structurally upstream.

LAYER 2: LIGHT. Photons don't make themselves.
🟠 $LITE: revenue +90% YoY last quarter to $808M. EML shipments doubled and management says demand still exceeds supply across EMLs, pump lasers, and transceivers. NVIDIA just wired them $2B. OCS backlog past $400M plus a multi-hundred-million CPO order for 2027.
🟢 $SIVEF (Stockholm: SIVE): the external light source. CPO does not emit its own light. Every optical engine needs a continuous-wave InP laser feeding it, and that is the layer you cannot engineer around. ELS modules with POET hit production readiness end of this year. Disclosure: long.
🟣 $POET: the optical engine wildcard. Its Optical Interposer pairs with Sivers' lasers on external light sources for CPO, with a LITEON module deal stacked on top. Binary commercialization, real architecture.

LAYER 3: OPTICS AND MODULES. Where light meets the rack.
🟠 $COHR: the volume anchor in transceivers, holding NVIDIA's other $2B check.
🔵 $AAOI: Q1 revenue +51% to a record $151M, datacenter revenue more than doubled, $124M of 800G orders plus a $200M+ 1.6T order in hand. Scaling Texas capacity toward 500K+ units a month by year-end, targeting $1B+ revenue this year. Domestic supply while everyone fights over offshore. Disclosure: long.
🟠 $FN: the foundry of optics. When Fabrinet is building, the orders already exist.

THE INTERCONNECT: the layer the rack cannot route around.
🔵 $CRDO: just closed DustPhotonics. SerDes → DSP → silicon photonics → system integration, one company, 800G through 3.2T. Electrical AND optical, end to end. FY26 revenue tripled to $1.34B at 68% gross margin. The toll booth on both roads. Disclosure: long.
🟠 $MRVL: $3.25B for Celestial AI, and Jensen's trillion-dollar nod on the Computex stage.
🟠 $AVGO: switch silicon, optical DSPs, CPO engines. They define the socket.
🟠 $ANET: the AI spine. 100K-GPU clusters get stitched together in light.

LAYER 4: PACKAGING, FIBER, FOUNDRY. Where photons get industrialized.
🔵 $TSEM: the neutral silicon photonics foundry. Prints wafers for whoever wins.
🟣 $LPKF: glass-substrate packaging for glass-based CPO. Real technology, binary commercialization.
🟠 $GLW: AI racks demand several times the fiber density of legacy cloud, and NVIDIA just took a $500M stake. Corning sells density.

LAYER 5: TEST AND THE ANALOG UNDERLAYER. Complexity is a tax paid in validation.
🔵 $AEHR: silicon photonics test, ramping with the cycle. '
🔵 $VIAV: every 800G and 1.6T transceiver gets validated before it ships. The gate the market prices like an accessory.
🔵 $SMTC: the drivers and TIAs that fire the lasers. Sits directly under the LPO trade.
🔵 $MTSI: the high-speed analog behind 1.6T engines.
🟠 $CIEN: transport. Even long-haul is buying light.

💡The counter-thesis, because every map needs one. The honest debate on this stack is whether these are genuine bottleneck assets or cyclical optics suppliers enjoying peak demand at peak multiples. Lumentum's May print showed +90% growth with the stock up roughly 1,400% over the prior year at a triple-digit trailing multiple. That is a price for perfection. Most of these names live or die on a handful of hyperscaler capex lines, and one digestion quarter hits the whole stack at once. CPO timing has already slipped once. Architecture risk is real: LPO, CPO, and stretched copper are still fighting for the same sockets. The cycle is real. So is the gravity. 🔥

But the bears have to explain one thing: $NVDA, $MRVL, $CRDO, and $CIEN just spent over $10B securing this supply chain with their own balance sheets. The people with the best information are paying up for the layers.

The market owns the top of this stack. The asymmetry is at the edges: wafer, light, packaging, test.

Own the layers, not the logo.

Bookmark this for the weekend. Then tag the one investor you know who's still all compute and no interconnect. 👀

[Greg Cook @cookgreg]

@JonahLupton Such a nutty valuation so I flipped my allocation. PLTR has always been hard to wrap my head around too. So unique but trades only are these for me

[Greg Cook @cookgreg]

@angel201866 @aleabitoreddit ETRADE wont quote it even after I called them. I can see it on the charts but no bid ask

[Greg Cook @cookgreg]

@aleabitoreddit Nibbling on TSEM, NBIS, AAOI, COHR

[Greg Cook @cookgreg]

@aleabitoreddit Disappointed I can’t purchase in the US XFab.

[Greg Cook @cookgreg]

Indeed. Long $SIVE

[Michael Rigoni @michael_rigoni]

$SIVE YOU ARE NOT BULLISH ENOUGH 🚀