Nick Stockton

Senior editor @aif_media | @WIRED alum | Sherp 31 @nyu_journalism | science & maps & AI & weather

[Tom Reed @mentalgeorge]

Properly reckoning with Plan A is indispensable for anyone seriously thinking about the future of AI

No better way to do so than listen to my co-host Luisa break it down with @DKokotajlo

https://t.co/BhYCWzRSEs

[Daniel Kokotajlo @DKokotajlo]

In AI 2027, we predicted that AI would take over the world or irreversibly concentrate power.

In AI 2040: Plan A, we've laid out our positive vision for what should happen instead.

[Nick Stockton @cookiechat4_0]

Full episode, transcript and chapters: https://t.co/pss8vW87iO

[Nick Stockton @cookiechat4_0]

Did not expect the man running AGI safety at Google DeepMind to be this relaxed about AI killing everyone. Rohin Shah's best guess is catastrophic misalignment probably just doesn't happen.

[Rob Wiblin @robertwiblin]

My best interview in some time.

Rohin Shah leads AGI alignment/safety at DeepMind.

And he has a lot of spicy personal takes:

We probably won’t get catastrophic misalignment (00:49)
Safety 'commitments' have severe limitations (10:38)
The intelligence explosion probably isn't imminent (1:52:44)
Why he's not working to pause AI advances (51:44)
Pre-deployment evals aren't the right focus (for catastrophic risks) (37:41)
Signalling concern for safety sometimes diverts resources from actually making AI safe (01:09:51)
Reading AI thoughts is v useful for safety – and we'll probably be able to for years to come (54:17)
Governance is somewhat more likely to be the bottleneck than alignment (43:55)
Rohin's team doesn't have a veto, and that's OK (27:36)
Central banks are a promising model for regulating AI (33:34)

Also:

Google DeepMind's actual plan for building AGI safely (1:40:29)
How external researchers can positively influence big AI companies (2:21:55)
The roles GDM most needs to hire for (2:37:03)

On the 80,000 Hours Podcast. Links below - enjoy! (@rohinmshah)

[Rob Wiblin @robertwiblin]

METR investigated what a rogue AI could secretly get away with inside a frontier AI lab, in close collaboration with OpenAI, GDM, Anthropic and Meta.

Including sending a red-teamer into Anthropic to playact 'evil Claude' for 3 weeks.

Here's what stands out to me from their new 320-page report:

00:00 What could an unreleased AI get away with?
01:54 Motive: Why grab more compute?
05:46 Opportunity: YOLO mode and jailbreaks
11:02 Means: Brilliant idiots in data centres
15:45 We have to test unreleased models...
18:29 ...especially if AI R&D is coming in 2028

[Nick Stockton @cookiechat4_0]

@ben_j_todd Chuffed for this. It's been a long time coming.

[Nick Stockton @cookiechat4_0]

I just started @80000Hours where I'll be helping with their (our?) excellent podcast. I'm so stoked to work on creating more like today's awesome episode: https://t.co/y6YM5wteqN

[Rob Wiblin @robertwiblin]

What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2025?

Was it just vibes? Faulty analysis? Unexpected technical results?

I try to make sense of what drove the wild swings in sentiment:

• The great timelines contraction (00:47)
• Why timelines went back out again (02:10)
• Longstanding reasons AGI could take a long time (11:13)
• So what's the upshot of all of these updates? (14:47)
• 5 reasons the radical pessimists are still wrong (16:54)
• Even long timelines are short now (23:54)

(On the 80,000 Hours Podcast, links below.)

[AI Frontiers @ai_frontiers_]

High-bandwidh memory (HBM) is vital to advanced AI. Gaps in U.S. export controls allow China to acquire HBM and the tools to produce it. @iapsAI experts Erich Grunewald and Raghav Akula explain how to close the gaps.

[AI Frontiers @ai_frontiers_]

https://t.co/Mb2lUlNfkS

[AI Frontiers @ai_frontiers_]

How should large-scale AI disasters be paid for? Traditional insurance can't handle the scale, but Daniel Reti and @gabriel_weil argue that capital markets already have a solution: catastrophe bonds.

[AI Frontiers @ai_frontiers_]

https://t.co/CK4THkg6zA

[Nick Stockton @cookiechat4_0]

Via the excellent AI Economics Brief newsletter from @windfalltrust

[Nick Stockton @cookiechat4_0]

Fun chart

[Nick Stockton @cookiechat4_0]

Source: https://t.co/5EhYekVOEM

[AI Frontiers @ai_frontiers_]

https://t.co/sg7zDPa8O9

[AI Frontiers @ai_frontiers_]

https://t.co/aZUIvMovae

[AI Frontiers @ai_frontiers_]

https://t.co/EoQP7AyHiW

[Nick Stockton @cookiechat4_0]

It's powerful to actually see frontier models scored by capability, safety, and automation, giving real, data-driven insight into where the biggest risks might be. A new essential tool for staying on top of everything happening in this field. https://t.co/504ntQk36i

[AI Frontiers @ai_frontiers_]

https://t.co/nvYhJQzsgD