eran cohen

Cogito, ergo sum. Watcher, Thinker, ex-Fund manager. IAF alumni.

[eran cohen @cool_eran]

@rossiadam @VolteFaceInvest Also @MarkRuffalo is the biggest idiot. If you don't have an opinion on something, take the other side of his..

[eran cohen @cool_eran]

@shemeshmicha @BarakRavid מביך כן, אבל למה חריג? יום סטנדרטי של הפסיכית.

[eran cohen @cool_eran]

@shailevy6 צה"ל יצא מסוריה ומרוב לבנון אחרי הבחירות. חלק מהחרדים יתגייסו אם התמריצים הכלכליים יעודדו גיוס, ולא להפך, כמו היום.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Chinese state-owned oil trader Unipec offered today a key North Sea crude oil at its widest discount to the Dated Brent benchmark in six years (during the peak of the Covid lockdowns in April 2020). Beijing’s oil buying strike continued.

[eran cohen @cool_eran]

@AGHamilton29 Just another russian asset.

[eran cohen @cool_eran]

@TidefallCapital @varuninvesting It is cheap now, but forward looking, it is expensive.. ;)

[eran cohen @cool_eran]

השוק הישראלי מתחיל לתמחר את האפשרות של עוד כמה שנים עם המשפחה המלכותית המופרעת. הירידות האלה הן אזהרה.

[eran cohen @cool_eran]

@anat_kamm מטפורה דמיונית של דביל חסר השראה. המציאות יותר פשוטה: יס-מנים חסרי כישורים כמוהו הביאו אותנו לשפל הזה.

[Milk Road Macro @MilkRoadMacro]

Strait of Hormuz traffic just tripled in a week:

1. Vessel crossings jumped from 32 to 93 between consecutive weekends.

2. That's an increase of 61 crossings week-on-week.

3. Saturday alone saw crossings spike from 3 to 42 compared to the week before.

The obvious impact:

Oil prices continue to fall. WTI crude oil has fallen around 22% over the last week. We are now just 10% away from oil prices returning to pre-war levels.

Here's how this is happening:

OFAC issued a temporary general license easing compliance uncertainty for approved transits.

That license runs until 21 August. Which means we have a two month window of relative clarity.

After that, uncertainty returns unless extended.

Watch the calendar.

August 21 is now a date that matters for energy markets, shipping insurers and anyone tracking Middle East stability.

Source: @MarineTraffic

[eran cohen @cool_eran]

@Idaneretz המפרץ פתוח, הנפט זורם, ומחירו בהתאם. זו הבחירה של ארה"ב עד בחירות האמצע. הבירבורים של איראן בנושא חסרי משמעות, כמו אלה של נתניהו.

[Pythia Cap: Partially Conductive @PythiaR]

$SPCX now less valuable because it's less valuable @BillAckman

[eran cohen @cool_eran]

The narrative is $SPCX is too expensive but don't dare shorting it. Therefore, the stock is heading to 100$...

[eran cohen @cool_eran]

@CheeseheadMicah @NMassalha70106 @ZerMoran @eranetzion ילדים שהשמידו 2000 ישראלים.

[eran cohen @cool_eran]

@shailevy6 חשבתי שאנחנו נגד חזרה לרצועת הביטחון. אז איפה המארב הגדול? נתניהו הלוזר מעדיף להיות מחוץ לאירוע בגלל הבייס. צה"ל עשה עבודה פנטסטית. במחיר כבד, כמו תמיד.

[eran cohen @cool_eran]

@Cernovich The bombing should be exclusive to the shiite vilages. They support Hizballa & rent their homes for military use. They should lose it.

[eran cohen @cool_eran]

Well said.

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

“Before I join in the swelling chorus of former Obama and Biden officials rushing to write op-eds denouncing the MOU, or the Middle East hawks decrying it as an instrument of U.S. surrender, it is important to remember that a piece of paper by itself is not a peace. For peace is made as much by actions as by words—and as much by the unforeseen consequences of diplomacy as by the intended ones.
“The Trump administration prides itself on its realism. That is why key figures seem to feel no compunction about pulling the plug on the Israelis, and deeply disappointing many of their Arab friends in the Persian Gulf, too. Yet Trump is as much at the mercy of unpredictable historical events as [Woodrow] Wilson before him.
“Right now, Trump’s 14 Points look as wretched as Wilson’s 14 Points looked splendid in 1918. But who can be sure what lies ahead? What if the most perilous time for Iran’s horrible regime is not when it is under intense bombardment, but when it makes peace and smells the approach of boatloads of money? What if, at the same time, it turns out that the IRGC’s equally blood-soaked confederate, Vladimir Putin, is in deeper trouble than we realize with his war in Ukraine? And what if the reason oil prices didn’t go even higher than they did in the past four months is that China’s domestic economy is in free fall, as some numbers indicate?
“What if, in short, President Trump’s luck holds—as it has held so often throughout his 80 years of often reckless risk-taking?
“In the end, the wording of this lousy memorandum of understanding may matter less than the second- and third-order consequences of Trump’s Iran war. The economic consequences to date have certainly been far less damaging than I foresaw earlier in the conflict. Maybe, just maybe, the same will turn out to be true of the geopolitical consequences.”

[eran cohen @cool_eran]

@HolySmokexxxx @ruthbuaron זו לא נקמה. זה כיוונון של התמריצים הכלכליים, כך שיעודדו עבודה, שירות צבאי ולימודי ליבה.

[eran cohen @cool_eran]

@jewyorkstofmind @JacobL1994_ I was reading an intrview with Tom Stoppard about his latest play & he was talking about this. 'So good these times are over', said the interviewer, and Tom said 'nothing is over. You don't cure a 2000 years old disease with 70 years of relative peace. It was an awakening for me

[eran cohen @cool_eran]

@AGHamilton29 Correct. But the response can be a huge attack on Nabatiyeh. The Beirut response is seen as an attempt to disrupt a deal.

[eran cohen @cool_eran]

@HolySmokexxxx הלוואי. ממילא נולדנו אשמים..