@kushal_mungee@arenamag I've been telling nascent compute-market teams at big firms that current gpu-hour futures are generally unsuitable for hedging compared to other ways of managing risks, but that our best people are on it and that compute trading / compute markets is a worthy vast fertile realm
@kushal_mungee@arenamag If the markets can get liquidity (Kalshi types will likely be the first big non-toxic flow - using Ornn index), then over time the power of prices can sort a lot out. Any important real world pattern that can be sussed out can be exploited for profit so those will become legible.
@nrol_ling@michael_chomsky Architect Liquid Inference is good! https://t.co/sIYQIXMd9T
TrustedRouter / NY Token Exchange is another good team in the space that has a plug-and-play encryption system for providers + enterprise-grade verification/sampling @jperla
@adagradschool@juliasteinberg@arenamag Right now markets have focused on gpu capacity hours, which are more integrally tied to neocloud economics and more stable. Token pricing is almost always subsidized or otherwise volatile.
But it’s anyone’s game. DRAM derivatives are rumored. Memory generally fungible.
Open!
@adagradschool@juliasteinberg@arenamag Tokens are fungible! Some caveats around quantization and obviously model but yes. Recently wrote about an OpenRouter alternative that foregoes some of the intelligent matching defaults in favor of pure price auction.
https://t.co/9FB6j6Wyqz
The era of compute is upon us. Compute lending. Compute trading. But what does it mean?
In this beautifully illustrated article in @arenamag, I sketch out some early players who are trying to make a world of commoditized compute beyond the clouds
It’s also about coffee ☕️
"The man who does not use computation cannot compete with the man who avails himself of its secrets. No hedge fund can price second order effects faster than a 200-megawatt Jane Street data center. No lone genius can produce a better language model than Anthropic."
@CooperVeit3 on the secretive, unborn market for compute:
https://t.co/TzB0urYtda