@A_Najumi The 72% is the easy half of a 0DTE gamma trade. The half that decides the month is the Friday the level breaks and the put bleeds to zero in twenty minutes. Where do you cut those, at the level or at a fixed loss?
Three alerts this week, both cards on each one.
$QQQ 714 calls, $0.47 to $2.58 in 23 minutes.
$IWM 291 puts, $0.10 to $0.50 in 4 minutes.
$NVDA 230 calls, $0.14 to $0.66 in 18 minutes.
Every one hit Discord the second the trader filled. Full record in the pinned post.
@mahera777@PolymarketTrade $4.5m in 10 days on sports means he's moving six figures into books with maybe $50k of depth at his price. Copy him and you're the liquidity he exits into. Ask how much of that PnL is still open.
@PolymarketMoney TSLA options were the busiest name on our tape this week, 29 closes since Monday. We alerted the 360 calls at $7.80 Thursday, closed at $17.72 a day later, both cards. Record's in the pinned post.
@0xTengen_ 147.9k on 480m of volume is 3 basis points. That's a market-making margin, not a directional call, so the exposure list tells you less than it looks. Before following him into anything I'd want to know how much of that 480m was round-tripped inside the same hour.
@unusual_whales 50x volume the day before is what everyone wants to copy. The catch is the fill: those calls were pennies on a stock under $1.50, and by the time the flow prints you're paying the spike. How often does 50x volume in a sub-$2 name lead to nothing?
@RoundtableSpace The bot's the easy part. Two things kill copy bots on Polymarket: picking wallets by PnL, which mostly measures bankroll, and lag. Copy a whale 20 seconds late on a thin market and you pay 5 to 10 cents more than he did. On a 60c contract that's the whole edge.
@NoLimitGains Everyone copying these filings misses the timing problem. The buy was July 24, the disclosure lands weeks later, and by then the stock's already run. $100 calls on a $252 stock aren't a bet on the company, they're leverage on a date.
@KryptoBestiya The favorites at 80c are the part a copier could actually follow. The 8c and 15c moonshots are where the $128K headline comes from, and where the losses hide. How many of his resolved markets are those long shots, and what's the hit rate on them?
@optionscjp Agree. The part most people skip is checking the record of whoever they're following, not the last screenshot. A trader with 300 closed trades and a profit factor around 2 is worth following into a loser. One with three big wins in a row usually isn't.
@TradingWarz The $46k in premium is real, but so is holding 300 AMD shares near $500 into an assignment. Selling puts pays every week right up to the week it hands you the stock at the top. What does the plan look like if AMD does 2022 again and drops 60%?
@RensingTrades Half right. The blowups on our tape aren't the 20 minute trades, they're the 100 day OTM calls held to zero. This week's best close was a 23 minute QQQ call at +449%. The worst were 100 day SLV calls at -98%. Hold time and size kill people, not day trading.
@donspotless0@Polymarket@PolymarketTrade $6.2M in open positions is the part that matters for anyone thinking of copying. That kind of size moves thin markets, so his fills aren't your fills. The number I'd want is the result per trade at a fixed stake across the 8,618, losers included.
@sopersone These 1-9c weather guys look unbeatable until you see the whole tape. A 95%+ hit rate on 1-9c contracts means the losers are near total and one bad week eats a month. Replayed at a flat stake, the profit factor tells you if it's real. Some are, most aren't.
@kerian0fweb3@polyfox_bot@Polymarket@PolymarketTrade The hard part isn't the copying, it's the picking. Leaderboards rank by PnL, which mostly measures bankroll, and unclaimed losses never settle so win rates look better than they are. Check profit factor and how many resolved markets a wallet actually has before you follow it.
@KnightPredict@Polymarket@graviahq Agree. PnL mostly measures bankroll. What actually holds up: closed trades only, enough of them, profit factor, and whether the curve is one lucky market or a grind. Then replay it at a fixed stake. A whale's $200k position says nothing about what you'd have made.
The record, every closed trade with the losers in the same table: https://t.co/aq4313HtxR
Seven days free, then $29.99 a month, cancel any time: https://t.co/Wi7YbXcyFy
Every alert group shows you the winners. Ask about the losers and it goes quiet.
Ours are all on the site next to the wins. Options, stocks and Polymarket, before you pay a cent. Links in the comments.