Corey K Potvin

Research Meteorologist at NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory.

[Corey K Potvin @corey_potvin]

In EOR at @AMS_AIES: "Using machine learning to predict convection-allowing ensemble forecast skill: Evaluation with the NSSL Warn-on-Forecast System" https://t.co/eEpSAvtvQc

[Montgomery Flora, Ph.D. @MontePhD]

Can we use AI to predict thunderstorm evolution?

Recently published in @theAGU GRL, we refactored @GoogleDeepMind's GraphCast for regional modeling and trained it on @CIWRO_ / @NOAANSSL's archived Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) data.

[AGU's Eos @AGU_Eos]

Meteorologists are turning to AI as a quick, efficient alternative to traditional weather prediction algorithms.

Now researchers including @MontePhD & @corey_potvin have extended this tech to cover localized extreme weather as well as global forecasts. https://t.co/pcSccHjqJS

[NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory @NOAANSSL]

🤖 How can AI help scientists predict thunderstorms faster? 🤔

A new paper from NSSL and @CIWRO_ discusses how WoFSCast, a new AI-powered model, can accurately predict how storms will evolve up to two hours in advance. ⛈️

📝: https://t.co/2UVcchBJ35

[Montgomery Flora, Ph.D. @MontePhD]

🚨 New paper! 🚨 Available in EOR is our paper exploring training AI models on MRMS MESH vs. reported hail sizes: https://t.co/JqPUAlE3b9

[NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory @NOAANSSL]

🌪️🌩️ Studying tornadoes in the field has always been at the heart of the NSSL mission. With roots in the 90s, the VORTEX-USA project continues to blaze a trail in tornado science with the ultimate goal to protect lives and property.

🌪️ UP CLOSE: https://t.co/X8gEB9Jz1p

[CIWRO @CIWRO_]

WoFSCast is the first AI system trained and developed to emulate a sub-hourly convection-allowing weather model (CAM). WoFSCast speeds up forecast generation versus WoFS by at least a factor of ten, from minutes to seconds. #AMS2025

[Roger Edwards @SkyPixWeather]

Monte Flora: Future of storm-scale AI: generating large-member (100+) hi-res (~1-km) ensemble forecasts in seconds.

AI system in the WoFS framework already can produce “closely matching” forecasts with far less computational burden than #WoFS (far faster). #31sls

[Corey K Potvin @corey_potvin]

Huge kudos to @MontePhD for leading this awesome work! AI will undoubtedly play a major role in NWP at all scales.

[Montgomery Flora, Ph.D. @MontePhD]

🚨 Exciting Announcement! 🚨
Introducing WoFSCast: our AI-powered system for predicting thunderstorm evolution at watch-to-warning scales. 🌩️⚡
https://t.co/dksbLh1cTY

[Corey K Potvin @corey_potvin]

@MontePhD Plus, we can fit ~10 WoFSCast members on one GPU, whereas all 18 WoFS members use 1080 CPUs total.

[Corey K Potvin @corey_potvin]

Our paper combining AI/ML, storm-scale ensemble prediction, and "forecasting forecast skill" is now in final form in @AMS_AIES:
https://t.co/eEpSAvtvQc
Co-authors: @MontePhD, Patrick Skinner, @tonyreinhart, @BrianWxFLA

[NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory @NOAANSSL]

🤔How can science provide more warning when 🌪️tornadoes threaten?

The Warn-on-Forecast System, equips forecasters with critical information between watches and warnings, enabling them to give longer lead times in the face of severe weather and tornadoes.

https://t.co/9TJdGu1Bf6

[Montgomery Flora, Ph.D. @MontePhD]

Our paper on the usefulness of the "WoFS-ML-Severe" products examined during the 2022 HWT-SFE is available in EOR. This paper explores subjective verification, objective verification, and qualitative analysis of the participant's feedback. https://t.co/JrAuS8dpzn

[Corey K Potvin @corey_potvin]

Thank you to my co-authors: @MontePhD, Pat Skinner, @tonyreinhart, @BrianWxFLA.

[Corey K Potvin @corey_potvin]

In EOR at @AMS_AIES: "Using machine learning to predict convection-allowing ensemble forecast skill: Evaluation with the NSSL Warn-on-Forecast System" https://t.co/eEpSAvtvQc

[Corey K Potvin @corey_potvin]

I believe this is the first published application of machine learning to predicting storm-scale forecast skill. This work motivates additional applications of ML to predicting forecast skill, including at larger scales / longer lead times.

[Montgomery Flora, Ph.D. @MontePhD]

**Experimental (Not Public Yet)**

The new AI hail size algorithm says 2 in is possible!

[NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory @NOAANSSL]

Great presentations from #NSSL scientists continue here at #AMS2024, including researchers Kim Hoogewind and Adam Clark at the @NOAA booth talking about trends in severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in a changing climate.

[Cameron Homeyer @AtmoScientist]

Hot off the press: The OU School of Meteorology (@ousom) & School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science have a joint tenure-track faculty position focused on the broad areas of Hydrometeorology and Hydrology that is now open. Apply here: https://t.co/VuEwTcFq8z

[Corey K Potvin @corey_potvin]

Please share!

[Corey K Potvin @corey_potvin]

The Feb 1 deadline for NRC postdoc apps is coming up! I am looking for someone to work with me on a topic related to our Warn-on-Forecast System. Search "Potvin" at https://t.co/R6FGucCkIF. These project descriptions are flexible. Possible topics in next post....

[Corey K Potvin @corey_potvin]

Possible NRC postdoc topics:
(1) WoFS forecast emulation via deep learning
(2) Other ML applications
(3) Thunderstorm predictability
(4) Multi-resolution ensemble design
(5) Novel verification techniques
(6) ???

Feel free to reach out here or at [email protected].

[Corey K Potvin @corey_potvin]

The Feb 1 deadline for NRC postdoc apps is coming up! I am looking for someone to work with me on a topic related to our Warn-on-Forecast System. Search "Potvin" at https://t.co/R6FGucCkIF. These project descriptions are flexible. Possible topics in next post....