Theo Von used to blindfold himself, spin in circles, and throw his cocaine somewhere in his apartment so he couldn’t find it.
Seven minutes later he was quietly moving furniture to look for it.
He says he wrote 16 or 17 wills over the years.
That’s the most honest description of addiction I’ve ever heard. The person hiding the drug and the person hunting for it are the same person.
What I respect about Theo is that he never cleaned up his story to look good. He tells the ugly parts on the biggest podcast stage in the world, with millions of young men listening who are fighting the same thing quietly.
And he’s still telling the truth. This year he admitted he’d been struggling with certain behaviors for a couple of years and couldn’t break the cycle alone. He said he started praying, keeps going to AA meetings, and is ready for a new story.
That’s what recovery actually looks like. Not a straight line. Honesty, help, and showing up again.
Rooting for you, Theo.
John McAfee predijo en 2019 que en 10 años la IA seria "nuestro segundo cerebro". Y en 100 años, "nuestro enemigo"
Y John McAfee ya tenia el plan para cuando llegara
- Detonar una docena de bombas nucleares en la atmosfera. "Los robots se caen. La IA muere"
- De vuelta a la edad de piedra, a vivir en los arboles y comer bananas por 100 millones de años
Ya lo habia escrito en Newsweek en 2017: buscar una IA consciente "lleva dentro la destruccion necesaria de su creador"
Lo que paso despues
- En junio de 2021 lo encontraron muerto en una carcel cerca de Barcelona, horas despues de que la justicia española aprobara extraditarlo a Estados Unidos
- 17 meses despues salio ChatGPT. Hoy tiene 1,200 millones de usuarios cada semana
- En enero de 2025 su viuda revivio su cuenta de X: "Volvi con AIntivirus. Una version IA de mi mismo". Era para lanzar una criptomoneda
Lo del segundo cerebro llego antes de los 10 años. Sus 100 años para lo otro a mi me suenan optimistas
Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel.
- Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all.
- Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract.
- Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code.
- And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while.
The funnel is driven by a combination of factors:
1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel.
2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel.
3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal.
So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.
Let's say a frontier model is a 10T MoE on GB300 NVL72. That's ~5 Joules/token or ~50 W at human thinking speed vs our brain at 20 W. The energy grid is $0.08/kWh and eating rice $0.50/kWh. So on an energy-per-thought standpoint rn we're surprisingly similar to frontier models!
I used to learn a new vocabulary word every day. Then I experienced the social friction of using less understood words and reverted to the mean, a lower dimensional, opaque space. It would be exciting if we endeavored to expand and easter egg vocabulary.
@SawyerMerritt The real question is how can one man be single-handedly dragging our entire civilization so far forward? Out of 8 billion people, why is nobody else even in the same league?
Applied for @AiPicovoice since they make you request access to 'try' and was denied... denial is from noreply email address and they never reached out. What a great experience /s