Corp Credit Chronicle

“There are two types of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know.” I belong to either group. Do your own diligence.

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

If this prediction is correct I'd expect QQQ to fare much worse

[Restructuring__ @Restructuring__]

This is Paul Tudor Jones, one of the greatest macro traders of all time. Listen to him when he tells you buying the S&P is not likely to make you money.

"The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10 year forward return is negative, that is what history shows"

"Valuation matters a lot, the stock market is really high, and it is going to be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view"

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

Another billion spent on stock purchase. Another low for share price. Pressure building up for all the years it overborrowed $CHTR

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

Even after $CHTR wasted another $5.4B to repurchase stock the share price hovering at a decade low. Do they know their debt size? New bond issuance comes with >7% coupons to retire debt at ~5%.

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

Rock you like a hurricane. More volatility in $KSS bonds: sold down 12-15 points in March only to recover most of it in April. Return ~50% ltm. Mike is hungry. He runs the show.

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

KSS 33s stand out on the co curve at ~200bps spread over 31s and relative to peers JWN and M, trading at ~400bps wide of M 34s and >400bps vs JWN 31s

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

Hey Moody's - turn on your Nokia phone and give it an upgrade. This rising star deserves it. Stock at decade high. NOK 39s and near dated ALUFP bonds attractive

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

@SternJatta When the bonds get downgraded to junk and they cancel the divvy

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

The fuse is running short. Yield creeping up to 8 handle at $ORCL far end. Spread to similar duration $MSFT ~200bps. Every byte of software on alert.

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

The cracks appear. The frame starts to distort. $ORCL far end trading >7% wider than chemicals and junk rated $WHR. Bids are thin.
Ready to explode. Mast breaker.

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

I am broken like an arrow. Forgive your wayward (Elli)son. Junior 6 3/8 PARA 62 down >20 points in past few months flicking at ~80. Unlikely to be called Mar'27. We're gonna live thru the rain.

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

(2) And on top of that insanity, $CRWV seems to be having liquidity issues, as despite 6 months worth of receivables, their “Quick Ratio” has slid to 0.38x at year-end, which is a distressed level. They will need to issue more equity beyond the $NVDA sale, soon, in our opinion.

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

Out: 8 CC 2033 at 104
In: 6.9 DOW 2053 at 105
Drop high beta HY credit with upside limited by call. Enter sector leading IG credit at ~same cash price. Extend duration to capture potential price upside.

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

Kynda ryl numbers published by $KD. Investors kynda trust them. Another fallen angel. 4.1% KD 2041 down 10 points at 69. I'd be kynda buyer when it hits 60.

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

The only way is up

[Danny Dayan @DannyDayan5]

For the life of me, I do not understand why every funding and carry trade is not moved to CHF.

They are pricing negative rates again. Why own this currency?

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

They advise to allocate some % to cryptos. It will very likely add volatility to portfolio. What else?

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

There are no unkillable thrills.

$MSTR series D pref trading 35% below par. 10% divvy not offering much comfort.

I don't ask much. I just want yield.

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

My imagination ran wild. Could this really happen? They use leverage on top of leverage within each of the CLOs. Too good to be true $ECC

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

This clo fund has distribution rate of ~30%. (It's as durable as $LYB 12% dy)

[Frank @justfactstruth]

$ECC - Adds to Yield Accounts looking great
High Yield and Lev Loans look great - New Issue markets wide open, Fed reducing rates, economy strong, Default rate very low.

Yield is OUTSTANDING

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

Even after $CHTR wasted another $5.4B to repurchase stock the share price hovering at a decade low. Do they know their debt size? New bond issuance comes with >7% coupons to retire debt at ~5%.

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

$AMD $MU $STX
10 yrs ago I was hesitant to buy their debt. Today their combined market cap ~$1T. It's been a fairy tale for the equity investors. Next decade will certainly be different.

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

@mammaryLBO Expecting further downgrades and uninspiring Q results

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

$FMC and $ANGSJ credit ratings same. One mines the product with no substitute and has -ve net debt. The other makes product easily substituted and drowns in debt. Thanks M&S for your helpful analysis. Why don't you upgrade your bullion forecast by 50-100%?

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

@NGurushina $EMLC beat $VOO last year and the strong run continues

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

JGBs far end completely unhinged. Yet, so far there've been no margin calls, no SVB-type of event.

[Corp Credit Chronicle @corpbonds]

30y bunds yield at multi-decade high. The Swissie strong despite -ve rates. Gold meteoric. There'll be blood.

[EMopportunities @EMopportunities]

Global EM:

Geopolitical risk at multi-year highs, Japan rates under stress, political interference in Fed policy…
Tail-risk probability has rarely been this elevated.
I’m still very surprised by current valuations on equity or credit spreads.