This is Paul Tudor Jones, one of the greatest macro traders of all time. Listen to him when he tells you buying the S&P is not likely to make you money.
"The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10 year forward return is negative, that is what history shows"
"Valuation matters a lot, the stock market is really high, and it is going to be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view"
Even after $CHTR wasted another $5.4B to repurchase stock the share price hovering at a decade low. Do they know their debt size? New bond issuance comes with >7% coupons to retire debt at ~5%.
Rock you like a hurricane. More volatility in $KSS bonds: sold down 12-15 points in March only to recover most of it in April. Return ~50% ltm. Mike is hungry. He runs the show.
KSS 33s stand out on the co curve at ~200bps spread over 31s and relative to peers JWN and M, trading at ~400bps wide of M 34s and >400bps vs JWN 31s
Hey Moody's - turn on your Nokia phone and give it an upgrade. This rising star deserves it. Stock at decade high. NOK 39s and near dated ALUFP bonds attractive
The cracks appear. The frame starts to distort. $ORCL far end trading >7% wider than chemicals and junk rated $WHR. Bids are thin.
Ready to explode. Mast breaker.
I am broken like an arrow. Forgive your wayward (Elli)son. Junior 6 3/8 PARA 62 down >20 points in past few months flicking at ~80. Unlikely to be called Mar'27. We're gonna live thru the rain.
(2) And on top of that insanity, $CRWV seems to be having liquidity issues, as despite 6 months worth of receivables, their “Quick Ratio” has slid to 0.38x at year-end, which is a distressed level. They will need to issue more equity beyond the $NVDA sale, soon, in our opinion.
Out: 8 CC 2033 at 104
In: 6.9 DOW 2053 at 105
Drop high beta HY credit with upside limited by call. Enter sector leading IG credit at ~same cash price. Extend duration to capture potential price upside.
Kynda ryl numbers published by $KD. Investors kynda trust them. Another fallen angel. 4.1% KD 2041 down 10 points at 69. I'd be kynda buyer when it hits 60.
For the life of me, I do not understand why every funding and carry trade is not moved to CHF.
They are pricing negative rates again. Why own this currency?
$ECC - Adds to Yield Accounts looking great
High Yield and Lev Loans look great - New Issue markets wide open, Fed reducing rates, economy strong, Default rate very low.
Yield is OUTSTANDING
Even after $CHTR wasted another $5.4B to repurchase stock the share price hovering at a decade low. Do they know their debt size? New bond issuance comes with >7% coupons to retire debt at ~5%.
$AMD $MU $STX
10 yrs ago I was hesitant to buy their debt. Today their combined market cap ~$1T. It's been a fairy tale for the equity investors. Next decade will certainly be different.
$FMC and $ANGSJ credit ratings same. One mines the product with no substitute and has -ve net debt. The other makes product easily substituted and drowns in debt. Thanks M&S for your helpful analysis. Why don't you upgrade your bullion forecast by 50-100%?
Global EM:
Geopolitical risk at multi-year highs, Japan rates under stress, political interference in Fed policy…
Tail-risk probability has rarely been this elevated.
I’m still very surprised by current valuations on equity or credit spreads.