RBA

Trader

[RBA @corptrader]

Countdown to rally in 1…

[RBA @corptrader]

this post was basically the lows for TLT

today TLT looks statistically as overbought as it looked oversold 2 weeks ago. maybe get one more push lower in yields tomorrow and then watch for big reversal

rate vol heading a lot higher imho

[RBA @corptrader]

thirty minutes before 30yr auction. probably a coincidence 🤡

regardless, as negative as I've been on bonds... TLT looks statistically oversold to me. maybe get short covering in this bond auction.

[RBA @corptrader]

Fed clearly one and done

[RBA @corptrader]

@CEOTechnician this was a 135ish stock back in July and that looks like the local low

[RBA @corptrader]

@Seniorstrategen sounds like you are preparing yourself and your audience for the hard sell off that is coming

[RBA @corptrader]

@StocksFormula So bulled up here

[CEO Technician @CEOTechnician]

Bessent’s Golden Move: Is Judy Shelton’s Appointment a Turning Point for Gold? https://t.co/shQDzrYaT7

The Friday afternoon announcement from Treasury that Dr. Judy Shelton will serve as a Counselor in Secretary Scott Bessent’s office was one of those moments in which I felt the world change. Even though most people don’t even know who Judy Shelton is, those who understand the context probably felt the earth shake a little on Friday.

The U.S. Treasury announcement states that Shelton will be advising Bessent on currency policy with a particular focus on financial conditions in China. It’s all about China, and more precisely orchestrating a restructuring of the global monetary order. Shelton’s role at Treasury opens the door for new ideas that could change how Washington uses its gold reserves and how it markets its debt.

The real significance lies in the combination of her assignment and the monetary ideas she has spent years developing. Fortunately, she has spent years producing a significant body of work which we can sift through for clues.... $GLD $SLV $TLT

Featuring @RonStoeferle @LukeGromen @judyshel

[RBA @corptrader]

Bought $SILJ this week

Basically tapped out - max long gold and silver miners - no more room to add

Let’s see how it goes

[LBroad @BroadLuis]

Pessimism toward silver miners is becoming extreme, and our SIL–SILJ data shows just how deeply oversold the sector has become.

With widespread drawdowns, collapsing breadth, and sentiment this negative, I believe we're entering a compelling buying opportunity.

The exact bottom is impossible to predict, but for investors with a long-term perspective, I think it's time to start buying silver miners rather than waiting for everyone to turn bullish again.

[RBA @corptrader]

thirty minutes before 30yr auction. probably a coincidence 🤡

regardless, as negative as I've been on bonds... TLT looks statistically oversold to me. maybe get short covering in this bond auction.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

US STOCKS PARE LOSSES AFTER TRUMP SAYS US WILL NOT ATTACK IRAN BEFORE US ELECTIONS IN NOVEMBER

[Joseph E. Barbuto | 🌊 The Economic LongWave @TheELongWave]

Toronto’s 80-Year Affordability Collapse (Kondratieff's LongWave Four 1946-Sept 2026)

For most of the post-war era, Toronto homes traded around 2–4× household income.

1989’s housing bubble briefly pushed that ratio to 5.7×.

Then came three decades of falling rates, expanding mortgage credit and financialization.

By 2022: 12.7× income.

Even after the correction, Toronto remains near 9.4× income in September 2026 still roughly 122% above its 80-year average.

That is the point many are missing.

🏠 Prices have fallen.

💳 Affordability has not normalized.

📉 Leverage remains embedded in the system.

Economic Autumn rewarded ever-rising asset prices and ever-expanding credit.

Economic Winter is the opposite process: deleveraging, repricing and a return toward economic fundamentals.

The question is no longer whether Toronto has corrected.

The question is how much adjustment is still required before incomes, credit and housing values reconnect with one another.

History suggests the reset is not finished.

[RBA @corptrader]

Been waiting a long time for DM bond market implosion - a necessary outcome after 15+ yrs of insane IR policy & CB intervention.

I believe this will be a propellant for gold px.

For now, market thinks it sophisticated to give away gold because nobody wants our bonds

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Asia's Gold Producers Start Hoarding Their Own Metal As Faith In The Dollar Erodes https://t.co/nlaDxW4FeZ

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Americans now own over $60 trillion in stocks & mutual funds, more than 3x higher than a decade ago.

That huge wealth surge has helped keep consumer spending strong.

The risk: the more the economy depends on rising asset prices, the more vulnerable it becomes when they fall.

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

Is oil the reason for the global explosion in yields?

No.

Oil is simply the trigger exposing a financial system that was already fragile.

For decades, governments ran persistent deficits, central banks suppressed interest rates, and every crisis was answered with more debt, more liquidity and more money creation.

That worked as long as inflation stayed low and global supply remained abundant.

The entire system became dependent on cheap energy, cheap goods, cheap capital and continuously falling interest rates.

Now hit that system with a genuine supply shock.

Oil rises → inflation expectations rise → rate-cut expectations disappear → yields rise → government interest costs increase → fiscal deficits become even larger.

And this time central banks cannot easily suppress yields without risking another inflation wave and further currency depreciation.

They are trapped.

Oil did not create the sovereign debt problem.

Oil is exposing what decades of deficits, monetary expansion and artificially cheap capital built underneath the surface.

A healthy financial system can absorb an energy shock.

A highly leveraged system built around permanently cheap money cannot.

Oil is the match.

The debt structure is the fuel.

[RBA @corptrader]

I left this game thinking it was the best high school football game I've ever seen... it might be the best football game I've ever seen.

Deus Vult!

[Jersey Sports Zone @JSZ_Sports]

Trey Tagliaferri threw a pick six and saw Bergen Catholic down 24-0 against rival Don Bosco in the 2nd quarter. The University of Oklahoma commit turned around to throw for 351 yards and 5 touchdowns to lead a stunning 34-30 comeback win highlighted by three 4th quarter TD passes.

You can watch all of the highlights from a potential NJ Game of the Year at https://t.co/yilxjy6p6j

@BergenCathFBall | @TagliaferriTrey | @Josh_Scoop |
@TheOklahoman_ | @SoonerScoop | @ParkerThune

[RBA @corptrader]

@northjersey Best HS football game I’ve ever seen

[RBA @corptrader]

@riskdeity My old hood - awesome down there

[RBA @corptrader]

Credit has been so boring for so long - left the business - won’t return.

But there is a credit cycle coming.

Followed a bunch of credit focused accounts today.

[RBA @corptrader]

@dmwlsw Only possible with the support of 24,000 colleagues at the Fed

[RBA @corptrader]

Long $MAT

Mattel is 1 of only 2 equity positions in my portfolio that aren't precious metals miners

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

Mattel $MAT is in takeover talks with Authentic Brands Group over a potential offer valuing the company at $6B+ or more than $20/share, according to the WSJ.

Premium of roughly 58%+

[RBA @corptrader]

@riskdeity true, could just be short covering into NFP

[RBA @corptrader]

2yr yields falling, credit risk rising

Should be go-time for GOLD