When I started my career, nobody cared about semis. The sector didn't grow, Moore's law was dead, and everybody just wanted to talk about SaaS stocks
How the times change
Was catching up with a friend from my days in public equities and was reminded of how investors will always *dramatically* overestimate how much any company actually knows about their own business
I had never expected the pivotal moment would be getting everyone to agree that yeah mass domestic surveillance and fully autonomous killer drones would be, like, a bad idea
These will not be the hardest AI deployment questions that society will face in the next 3 years!
All I have to say about SaaS stocks right now is that I’m heartened to see everyone else in the market has started extrapolating straight lines on charts as well
1/ If you really believe LLMs will dramatically compress the cost of software development in 3-5 years, doesn't this obviate the reason for independent software vendors to exist?
This doesn't seem obviously crazy to me - it'd just be a return to the days of mainframes
4/ The one thing that has changed - all of the checks now have an extra zero (or two)
“Even young PhDs could pull a half million dollars a year”
Ilya was offered “nearly $2 million for the first year”
Some things do change!
1/ If I had a nickel for every time Mark Zuckerberg blew a few billion dollars trying to hire a team of star researchers to build a second place frontier AI research lab, I’d have two nickels. Which isn’t a lot, but it’s weird that it happened twice
Breaking news: Meta’s chief artificial intelligence scientist Yann LeCun, a Turing Award winner who is considered one of the pioneers of modern AI, has told associates he will leave the Silicon Valley group in the coming months. https://t.co/t9D3gV7K0Q
3/ Another thing that remains unchanged after a decade and a half - Mark Zuckerberg is extremely uninterested in AI safety, ie why DeepMind refused to sell out to Facebook
1/ Last week I read Genius Makers on a rec from @modestproposal1 - this was Cade Metz's 2021 book on the history of ML
It was really fascinating, but in the same way you'd be fascinated reading a history of Newtonian physics published 3 months before Einstein invented relativity
11/ A friend recently told me a hilarious quote from Ernest Rutherford: "All science is either physics or stamp collecting"
If you can't derive some underlying principle of reality from your research, then ultimately you're just collecting a bunch of random facts to no end